Hubris and cocky overconfidence are probably not the best options right now....
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Discussion: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
- Thread starter Graupel
- Start date
Hubris and cocky overconfidence are probably not the best options right now....
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
...especially when some experts talk about the 300 mutations. He needs to clarify that he means mutations in its mode of transmission.
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Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
...especially when some experts talk about the 300 mutations. He needs to clarify that he means mutations in its mode of transmission.
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Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
See, its sound bites like this that make me stop trusting them. I mean can they really say stuff like that and expect people to believe it, when they are not doing their utmost to suppress this outbreak?
Hey! You recently had contact with an Ebola patient and now have a feaver, but sure, get on a commercial airliner!
But dont wory! No chance of a major outbreak here!
Yeah guys... you just wait tell someone with symptoms sweats all over the Gym equipment at LA Fitness.
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
See, its sound bites like this that make me stop trusting them. I mean can they really say stuff like that and expect people to believe it, when they are not doing their utmost to suppress this outbreak?
Hey! You recently had contact with an Ebola patient and now have a feaver, but sure, get on a commercial airliner!
But dont wory! No chance of a major outbreak here!
Yeah guys... you just wait tell someone with symptoms sweats all over the Gym equipment at LA Fitness.
Lizw
Well-known member
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Dr. Frieden isn't responsible for the media having used a portion of his remarks as a sound bite, but I agree that their changing position makes them a target for accusations. What I would like to hear is something like "We are working on the frontier of a disease we've never had to deal with here, and we quite likely will make mistakes until we know more than we do now."
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Dr. Frieden isn't responsible for the media having used a portion of his remarks as a sound bite, but I agree that their changing position makes them a target for accusations. What I would like to hear is something like "We are working on the frontier of a disease we've never had to deal with here, and we quite likely will make mistakes until we know more than we do now."
Lizw
Well-known member
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Considering the already widespread dispersion of people who were exposed to the index patient, "large-scale" may turn out to be as useless a reference as "airborne." Who would have expected at-risk people to turn up on a cruise ship in Belize, for pete's sake?
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I wish they would not make statements that they can not back up. We have never had an issue like this before in terms of the type of pathogen, and the travel we are capable of, and even the high tech procedures we can perform, and the high tech facilities which may have served to spread it. We don't really know what it will do. If Dallas isn't proof of that, I don't know what is. It's a dynamic situation.
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I wish they would not make statements that they can not back up. We have never had an issue like this before in terms of the type of pathogen, and the travel we are capable of, and even the high tech procedures we can perform, and the high tech facilities which may have served to spread it. We don't really know what it will do. If Dallas isn't proof of that, I don't know what is. It's a dynamic situation.
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Between the plane and cruise ship low exposures we may have a field test. Perhaps, some number-savvy person can tell us how many people it takes to theoretically fulfill the "odds" of non-contact transmission.
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Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Between the plane and cruise ship low exposures we may have a field test. Perhaps, some number-savvy person can tell us how many people it takes to theoretically fulfill the "odds" of non-contact transmission.
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Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I joined this board thinking it was a rational place for discussion. I am disappointed. Frieden does not strike me as a weasel. He sounds like a scientist trying to talk to people, when he should be focused on his job. Instead, he's getting dragged away from vital work.
We need a Surgeon General.
2 people showing symptoms after exposure to an index case is not large-scale. it's not even mini-scale. This doesn't mean there won't be other incidents but we should calm down a little.
Just my two cents
PS. I was concerned too, after I read about the incident in DC, then I realized that we never worried about people puking in public places before, and it probably happens 100x per day.
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Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I joined this board thinking it was a rational place for discussion. I am disappointed. Frieden does not strike me as a weasel. He sounds like a scientist trying to talk to people, when he should be focused on his job. Instead, he's getting dragged away from vital work.
We need a Surgeon General.
2 people showing symptoms after exposure to an index case is not large-scale. it's not even mini-scale. This doesn't mean there won't be other incidents but we should calm down a little.
Just my two cents
PS. I was concerned too, after I read about the incident in DC, then I realized that we never worried about people puking in public places before, and it probably happens 100x per day.
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MHSC
Senior Moderator
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
No, Frieden is not a weasel. I think the bottom line here is that the TPTB shouldn't be making these types of statements, period. There are no guarantees at this point, and anyone on the front lines knows this.
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
No, Frieden is not a weasel. I think the bottom line here is that the TPTB shouldn't be making these types of statements, period. There are no guarantees at this point, and anyone on the front lines knows this.
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I agree we need someone who can speak for the scientists. It seems like the Czar is coordinator (which is badly needed) but we also need a communicator who can handle the press well and foresee the way their statements will be interpreted or deliberately spun. At the same time, we don't need someone who spouts meaningless platitudes.
I wish this were over. It's very stressful for people. I wish the media would stop with the politics, or stop talking to opposition politicians for their opinions. They know less than anyone on this, and their interests lie in stirring things up for the discredit of others and the gaining of their own power.
Ugh!
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Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I agree we need someone who can speak for the scientists. It seems like the Czar is coordinator (which is badly needed) but we also need a communicator who can handle the press well and foresee the way their statements will be interpreted or deliberately spun. At the same time, we don't need someone who spouts meaningless platitudes.
I wish this were over. It's very stressful for people. I wish the media would stop with the politics, or stop talking to opposition politicians for their opinions. They know less than anyone on this, and their interests lie in stirring things up for the discredit of others and the gaining of their own power.
Ugh!
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Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Frieden's mantra in Aug via twitter
"Dr. Tom Frieden @DrFriedenCDC Aug 4
#Ebola is frightening because it?s so deadly. The stakes are high, but we know how to stop it. #CDCchat"
I knew was going to be a ridiculous statement. Why hadn't it been stopped at that point?? He is/was a too little too late.
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Frieden's mantra in Aug via twitter
"Dr. Tom Frieden @DrFriedenCDC Aug 4
#Ebola is frightening because it?s so deadly. The stakes are high, but we know how to stop it. #CDCchat"
I knew was going to be a ridiculous statement. Why hadn't it been stopped at that point?? He is/was a too little too late.
Gert van der Hoek
In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I agree.
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
I agree.
JimO
Well-known member
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Sorry you are disappointed. I think Dr. Frieden is a very competent, capable public health professional. I was impressed that he went to West Africa over the summer to see the situation himself. I also saw his demeanor change substantially after he returned. He exhibited grave concern over what he saw and said so openly. However, when the first case was identified in Dallas, he seemed to be much more reserved with his comments. Given the timing of all this (an election just weeks away), my increasing cynicism regarding all politicians, and the recent involvement of politicians from both sides of the isle in the so-called ebola debate, I am convinced that Dr. Frieden was instructed to keep his comments in check. Like everyone here, I don't want to incite panic, but I want the truth, even if it is bad news. Panic can be triggered just as effectively when information is withheld because it is human nature to fill in the blanks with circumstances that are worse than reality.
As an aside, it always cracks me up when people say things like, "There is no reason to panic!" Is there ever really a reason to actually panic?
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Sorry you are disappointed. I think Dr. Frieden is a very competent, capable public health professional. I was impressed that he went to West Africa over the summer to see the situation himself. I also saw his demeanor change substantially after he returned. He exhibited grave concern over what he saw and said so openly. However, when the first case was identified in Dallas, he seemed to be much more reserved with his comments. Given the timing of all this (an election just weeks away), my increasing cynicism regarding all politicians, and the recent involvement of politicians from both sides of the isle in the so-called ebola debate, I am convinced that Dr. Frieden was instructed to keep his comments in check. Like everyone here, I don't want to incite panic, but I want the truth, even if it is bad news. Panic can be triggered just as effectively when information is withheld because it is human nature to fill in the blanks with circumstances that are worse than reality.
As an aside, it always cracks me up when people say things like, "There is no reason to panic!" Is there ever really a reason to actually panic?
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
This IS a rational place for discussion. We are not compelled to agree with anything that Frieden says or does. He holds a very important position in the United States and as long as we keep comments constructive and not personal - everything he says or does as director of the CDC is fair game for comment.
Why do you feel the necessity to demean this site this afternoon? Interesting timing after being a member since September 1.
Re: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
This IS a rational place for discussion. We are not compelled to agree with anything that Frieden says or does. He holds a very important position in the United States and as long as we keep comments constructive and not personal - everything he says or does as director of the CDC is fair game for comment.
Why do you feel the necessity to demean this site this afternoon? Interesting timing after being a member since September 1.
Re: Ebola mutations
Re: Ebola mutations
Is there concern about recent remarks about Ebola mutations/amount of virus by Peter Jahrling and Michael Osterholm?
From Vox: Jahrling now serves as a chief scientist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, where he runs the emerging viral pathogens section. He has been watching this Ebola epidemic with a mixture of horror, concern and scientific curiosity. And there's one thing he's found particularly worrisome: the mutations of the virus that are circulating now look to be more contagious than the ones that have turned up in the past.
When his team has run tests on patients in Liberia, they seem to carry a much higher "viral load." In other words, Ebola victims today have more of the virus in their blood ? and that could make them more contagious.
PJ: "You're seeing all these patients getting infected, so people think there must be aerosol spread. Certainly, it's very clear that people who are in close contact with patients are getting a very high incidence of disease and not all of that can be explained by preparation of bodies for burial and all the standard stuff. But if you are to assume that the differences in virus load detected in the blood are reflected by differences in virus load spread by body secretions, then maybe it's a simple quantitative difference. There's just more virus."
http://www.vox.com/2014/10/13/6959087/ebola-outbreak-virus-mutated-airborne
And from Osterholm http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=228949
"Today I've been given permission [to share] something I've know about for a few weeks that has concerned me greatly. Gary Kobinger and colleagues at Winnipeg Canadian National lab actually took one of the strains from Guinea and put it into Macaques a little over a month and a half ago. What they saw as remarkable. It was unlike any of the Ebola viruses they've seen in monkeys. It was much, much, more severe; the pathology in the lungs was remarkable. As Gary [Kobinger] said, [and he] is one of the most prominent Ebola virologists in the world, '[what I saw] was very worrisome to me.' Maybe this is a different virus. Maybe there is that possibility that if you have that much virus in the lungs [then airborne transmission is possible]. Maybe somebody might cough it up and maybe you might get in a cycle."
http://www.jhsph.edu/events/2014/ebola-forum/ebola-forum-video-archive
Re: Ebola mutations
Is there concern about recent remarks about Ebola mutations/amount of virus by Peter Jahrling and Michael Osterholm?
From Vox: Jahrling now serves as a chief scientist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, where he runs the emerging viral pathogens section. He has been watching this Ebola epidemic with a mixture of horror, concern and scientific curiosity. And there's one thing he's found particularly worrisome: the mutations of the virus that are circulating now look to be more contagious than the ones that have turned up in the past.
When his team has run tests on patients in Liberia, they seem to carry a much higher "viral load." In other words, Ebola victims today have more of the virus in their blood ? and that could make them more contagious.
PJ: "You're seeing all these patients getting infected, so people think there must be aerosol spread. Certainly, it's very clear that people who are in close contact with patients are getting a very high incidence of disease and not all of that can be explained by preparation of bodies for burial and all the standard stuff. But if you are to assume that the differences in virus load detected in the blood are reflected by differences in virus load spread by body secretions, then maybe it's a simple quantitative difference. There's just more virus."
http://www.vox.com/2014/10/13/6959087/ebola-outbreak-virus-mutated-airborne
And from Osterholm http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=228949
"Today I've been given permission [to share] something I've know about for a few weeks that has concerned me greatly. Gary Kobinger and colleagues at Winnipeg Canadian National lab actually took one of the strains from Guinea and put it into Macaques a little over a month and a half ago. What they saw as remarkable. It was unlike any of the Ebola viruses they've seen in monkeys. It was much, much, more severe; the pathology in the lungs was remarkable. As Gary [Kobinger] said, [and he] is one of the most prominent Ebola virologists in the world, '[what I saw] was very worrisome to me.' Maybe this is a different virus. Maybe there is that possibility that if you have that much virus in the lungs [then airborne transmission is possible]. Maybe somebody might cough it up and maybe you might get in a cycle."
http://www.jhsph.edu/events/2014/ebola-forum/ebola-forum-video-archive
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: Discussion: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
Today Robert Reich wrote something that might help keep the ebola issue (as it stands now outside of Africa) in perspective. US hospital acquired infections (HAI) are ALREADY the 3rd leading cause of death, after heart disease and cancer. The latest CDC numbers are 721,800 hospital acquired infections per year!!! Another source says CDC puts the number at 1.7 million - many from antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Wikipedia says 1.7 HAIs and 99,000 deaths.
We can't say ebola is the same as MRSA or C-diff, etc., but the general public isn't similarly alarmed by those 99,000 deaths.
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Today Robert Reich wrote something that might help keep the ebola issue (as it stands now outside of Africa) in perspective. US hospital acquired infections (HAI) are ALREADY the 3rd leading cause of death, after heart disease and cancer. The latest CDC numbers are 721,800 hospital acquired infections per year!!! Another source says CDC puts the number at 1.7 million - many from antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Wikipedia says 1.7 HAIs and 99,000 deaths.
We can't say ebola is the same as MRSA or C-diff, etc., but the general public isn't similarly alarmed by those 99,000 deaths.
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zincfinger
Member
Re: Discussion: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
The USA government seriously muzzled climate scientists and told them that they could make no public statements without prior approval.
IMHO the same kind of pressure is probably being applied to Dr Frieden. Management of the news (as opposed to management of the event) has become standard practice in the USA.
That being said, he's totally responsible for allowing an exposed nurse with a fever to fly on a commercial flight.
The big problem with doing that in an epidemic situation is that how effectively the public is (or is not) at dealing with the situation is greatly affected by the "spin" put on public statements. And up to now the spin has been very heavily toward downplaying and disparaging the risks.
The USA government seriously muzzled climate scientists and told them that they could make no public statements without prior approval.
IMHO the same kind of pressure is probably being applied to Dr Frieden. Management of the news (as opposed to management of the event) has become standard practice in the USA.
That being said, he's totally responsible for allowing an exposed nurse with a fever to fly on a commercial flight.
The big problem with doing that in an epidemic situation is that how effectively the public is (or is not) at dealing with the situation is greatly affected by the "spin" put on public statements. And up to now the spin has been very heavily toward downplaying and disparaging the risks.
Last edited:
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: Discussion: No mass Ebola epidemic in US without 'mutation' CDC
One of the big points here is that US hospitals already had a contamination problem prior to ebola's arrival. For whatever reason, it had not been adequately addressed and now that situation is producing predictable results with ebola.
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One of the big points here is that US hospitals already had a contamination problem prior to ebola's arrival. For whatever reason, it had not been adequately addressed and now that situation is producing predictable results with ebola.
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