Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

[sharon sanders]

THERE

WILL

BE

NO

MASKS.


The US is stockpiling for essential workers like health care personnel.

This is why they are not recommending for the public to buy masks now.

Maybe they will release some to the public from the stockpile but I think they will hoard them in order to allocate them where they think the greatest need is (frontline health care workers).

 

[Zac]

THERE

WILL

BE

NO

MASKS.


The US is stockpiling for essential workers like health care personnel.

This is why they are not recommending for the public to buy masks now.

Maybe they will release some to the public from the stockpile but I think they will hoard them in order to allocate them where they think the greatest need is (frontline health care workers).

N95 masks were still available at lowes and home depot in the san francisco bay area as of yesterday afternoon. Some stores were limiting purchases to 10 per person though. A friend with a sister in northeast China went to multiple stores and got about 50 to send to her. But, I think they are of limited use, especially if one doesn't wear glass/goggles/faceshield.

 

[etudiant]

Amazon is out of basic 3M P100 or N100 masks. These are much more effective than the P95 variants, capturing 99.75% of the particles versus 95%.
That said, whether any of these is effective protection against an 80 micron airborne virus particle is very iffy.
It may be that people have to plan to stay locked in for three or four weeks at least. Whether that is even conceivable in our economic and social structure is unknown.
One of the earliest hit Chinese academics projected the peak impact in the May time frame. He obviously believes a pandemic is inevitable.

 

[sharon sanders]

I looked and it appears online outlets are sold out. One group was selling masks with an $800.00 delivery fee. ********

I just wanted to pass on what was said today at the CDC teleconference. I also wanted people not to be shocked when there are none available.

The reason authorities are not always forthcoming is because they think we will pan ic when we hear "bad" news like masks are basically sold out and there probably won't be any. I say if you tell people early on 'Hey - there will be no masks" people have a chance to absorb that info and can make a change to their family emergency plans.

The governments need to make us partners. Tell us the truth. We can deal with it.

 

[Zac]

Amazon is out of basic 3M P100 or N100 masks. These are much more effective than the P95 variants, capturing 99.75% of the particles versus 95%.
That said, whether any of these is effective protection against an 80 micron airborne virus particle is very iffy.
It may be that people have to plan to stay locked in for three or four weeks at least. Whether that is even conceivable in our economic and social structure is unknown.
One of the earliest hit Chinese academics projected the peak impact in the May time frame. He obviously believes a pandemic is inevitable.

Keep in mind that the N99 and N100 disposable masks are much harder than N95's to breathe through. Wearing that for hours could be exhausting. I've also seen people wear those and N95 mask with such a poor fit that much of the inhaled air was coming through the edges rather than through the filter media.

PS. Some lab supply distributors still have N95's in stock though at about double the pre-pandemic price::

https://www.coleparmer.com/i/3m-8511...-of-10/4011104

------------------

The site says you have to call them for availability. So it remains to be seen if you can actually order those, even at double the price.

 

[hawkeye]

I looked and it appears online outlets are sold out. One group was selling masks with an $800.00 delivery fee. ********

I just wanted to pass on what was said today at the CDC teleconference. I also wanted people not to be shocked when there are none available.

The reason authorities are not always forthcoming is because they think we will pan ic when we hear "bad" news like masks are basically sold out and there probably won't be any. I say if you tell people early on 'Hey - there will be no masks" people have a chance to absorb that info and can make a change to their family emergency plans.

The governments need to make us partners. Tell us the truth. We can deal with it.

Masks are supposedly being paid as bounty for reporting the whereabouts of anyone from Hubei:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1225187737789136898?s=09

 

[yielddude]

[h=1]Voices of coronavirus patients: 'Wherever we go, no one cares'[/h]
People in Wuhan confirmed or suspected to have the virus share their experiences of seeking help

by Lily Kuo in Beijing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...onavirus-patients-wherever-we-go-no-one-cares

 

[hawkeye]

I have a question.

Will those who are quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship have their 14 day quarantine reset if someone on the ship tests positive after, let's say, day 10?
Seems like they could potentially be on the ship for a long time given there are over 3,000 and they've only let 20 leave to go to hospitals.

 

[etudiant]

I have a question.

Will those who are quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship have their 14 day quarantine reset if someone on the ship tests positive after, let's say, day 10?
Seems like they could potentially be on the ship for a long time given there are over 3,000 and they've only let 20 leave to go to hospitals.

That is something that also applies to the hundreds of Americans getting held in quarantine after being brought back home from China. There must be quarantine policies that reflect past experience with contagious diseases, but they have not been posted anywhere that I've seen.

 

[gsgs]

> [China] It diverges away from the exponential trend in the past few days.
> [Hubei] but the data diverges away from the exponential model in the last two days of data,
> to the low side, and hugs the 3rd degree polynomial model.
> The software doesn't want anything to do with an exponential trend for China cases
> excluding Hubei province. This fits to a 3rd degree polynomial.

when you look at the last week separately, it looks again exponential to me but with
lower coefficient
[today's data from Feb.05 not yet included)

 

[Zac]

> [China] It diverges away from the exponential trend in the past few days.
> [Hubei] but the data diverges away from the exponential model in the last two days of data,
> to the low side, and hugs the 3rd degree polynomial model.
> The software doesn't want anything to do with an exponential trend for China cases
> excluding Hubei province. This fits to a 3rd degree polynomial.

when you look at the last week separately, it looks again exponential to me but with
lower coefficient
[today's data from Feb.05 not yet included)

I agree that it does appear closer to exponential if the earlier data is not included.

 

[Pathfinder]

Translation Google

2020-02-06 14:21:18   

Ultraviolet rays can kill viruses ? Experts: Let sunlight shine indoors in all places

(Petaling Jaya, June 6) With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Professor Shazari, a virologist at the Centre for Tropical Infectious Disease Research and Education (TIDREC) at the University of Malaysia, advises that all places should ensure air circulation and allow sunlight Indoors.

"The ultraviolet rays of the sun can kill the virus, so all places should let the sun shine indoors."
...
https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2212348.html

 

[kiwibird]

Interesting - "The People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, has begun using ultraviolet light and high-temperature ovens to disinfect cash coming in. It’s also replacing old notes with newly minted bills...."
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...nd-china-cleans-cash-in-virus-sparked-hygiene

 

[Zac]

> [China] It diverges away from the exponential trend in the past few days.
> [Hubei] but the data diverges away from the exponential model in the last two days of data,
> to the low side, and hugs the 3rd degree polynomial model.
> The software doesn't want anything to do with an exponential trend for China cases
> excluding Hubei province. This fits to a 3rd degree polynomial.

when you look at the last week separately, it looks again exponential to me but with
lower coefficient
[today's data from Feb.05 not yet included)

Ran the curve fitting again using only data from Jan 21st onward. Fortunately, it still appears to be a 3rd degree poly:

 

[Shiloh]

Academic dissent emerges over coronavirus outbreak

Mimi Leung and Yojana Sharma 06 February 2020
A well-known academic in China has this week criticised the government’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak highlighting that it has caused widespread dissatisfaction in the country. The emergence of criticism by academics, medical personnel, and netizens silenced by the authorities for ‘spreading rumours’ could herald a new strand of political dissent with the potential to outlast the current emergency...

Read more:
https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20200206160753660

 

[JJackson]

Cidrap alluded to comments made in the latest WHO press conference regarding the the testing regime's inability to keep pace with the outbreak. I have been looking for this information but can not find the transcript or video if anyone knows a link I would be most grateful.

Gs and Zak I trust you are allowing for the fact that confirmed case numbers are a reflection of our ability to test and will diverge from reality if there are insufficient trained personal, test kits or reagents. While it is clear that testing can not keep up what I do not know is how wide this gap is - which is the data needed in determining how useful any models based on the available data are.

 

[mb59747]

Now I am concerned about the US measures.

My own extended family members - 2 of them - went on a long vacation that started before the outbreak was big news. It was in two countries near China, but with only a few known cases. No problem.

Then when they were coming back to the US - to a state with no cases - they had to fly through Hong Kong - including an unexpected layover and of course the flight to and from Hong Kong was long with the recycled air.

Two days after returning, one of my traveling family members is sick. Feels like the flu. Barely a temperature. Calls dr. Told to go to ER. ER isolates him, does chest X-ray and some regular blood work. Sent home diagnosed with a common cold. No testing for coronavirus because there are no cases here and he didn’t meet criteria for testing.

I hope he has a cold. But the whole thing makes me think we are missing cases here.

For heavens sake, the entire ship with the 20 plus people infected came from a Hong Kong resident.

That and the #coronavirus pictures of quarantine camps and such has my mind reeling.

 

[Zac]

Cidrap alluded to comments made in the latest WHO press conference regarding the the testing regime's inability to keep pace with the outbreak. I have been looking for this information but can not find the transcript or video if anyone knows a link I would be most grateful.

Gs and Zac I trust you are allowing for the fact that confirmed case numbers are a reflection of our ability to test and will diverge from reality if there are insufficient trained personal, test kits or reagents. While it is clear that testing can not keep up what I do not know is how wide this gap is - which is the data needed in determining how useful any models based on the available data are.

I completely agree that many cases have not been counted because of mild symptoms and lack of testing resources. And the lack of testing resources will be even worse in places like India and Africa. Some (many?) fatalities were also likely not attributed to this virus because the victim was not tested before their demise. I have not seen any mention of samples being obtained from the deceased to confirm cause of death, especially if it occurred outside of a hospital.

 

[JJackson]

You have encounter two related problems. The first is that tests are limited and testing criteria are Wuhan and China specific. In the UK in 2009 we had the same problem if you had not come from Mexico or the US you would not be eligible for testing, once local spread started it was not being picked up until it exceeded the background noise. The second relates to the problem we are all going to have to deal with if this continues. It relatively simple to track traffic from one external point, containment when the danger could be coming from half the countries in the world is impossible without unprecedented economic and social disruption.

 

[JJackson]

When H1N1 came to the UK we had the same problem, to meet test criteria you must have traveled from Mexico or the US. It led to local clusters that were not detected until they exceeded the background noise created by other causes of ILI. Current containment measures will only have a chance of working while China is the only source of infection as other countries start exporting cases the system will not be able to trap for them and containment will be lost.

[Edit] Sorry for the double post but when posting the 1st. comment I got an error saying it had not worked so I typed again and then they both came up.