Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

[Emily]

Does anyone happen to have links to evidence showing support for airborne transmission of COVID-19? I recall hearing about it in several videos from respectable sources, but I've lost track of the details.

The doctors at Evergreen in Kirkland, WA, just said they are transforming the whole critical care unit into a negative pressure containment unit. He did not say why, just that they are doing everything they can.

https://q13fox.com/2020/03/02/king-county-reports-14-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-including-5-deaths/
Dr. Ettore Palazoo with EvergreenHealth said that in addition to the confirmed cases at the facility, there are 29 cases that are pending investigation.

"We have made adjustments at the organization to allow for airborne precautions," Palazoo said. "We are in a situation where we are able to convert our entire critical care unit over to a negative pressure scenario where we can keep those patients and staff caring for the patients safe.”

 

[Pathfinder]

Translation Google

What are the fears of cold, hot, dry and wet new crown virus? German medical experts answer questions
global

Compose: Nie Zhenyu
2020-03-02 10:33:00

Once the temperature rises, the new coronavirus will dissipate? Why spring might indeed be a gospel, and what makes the new coronavirus special, a German virologist answers.

According to the Voice of Germany report on March 1, many people expect that spring will make the situation better. If the new crown virus really resembles the flu virus, it may be considered good news. Because if this happens, as the spring comes, the temperature will rise, the virus will be killed, and the epidemic will disappear.

But these are just people's good wishes. Thomas Pietschmann, a molecular virologist at the Center for Experimental and Clinical Infection Research in Hanover, Germany, believes that whether the new crown virus will behave as expected, this question cannot be strictly answered because humans Virus awareness is not enough.

"The special thing about this virus is that it's the first time humans have come into contact with it. Based on the data we got from China, we can conclude that the virus was transmitted from an animal to humans, just once, and then from there Began to spread. "

In other words, unlike the flu virus that almost everyone has come into contact with, our immune system is not ready for the invasion of the new crown virus.

In addition, the current climate in the northern hemisphere is "perfect" for the rapid spread of the virus. The first is air temperature. Viruses transmitted through the respiratory tract are particularly active at low temperatures: "The virus is more stable at lower temperatures. It's like food can be stored longer in the refrigerator."

For many viruses, the better the temperature, the worse the day. "The new coronavirus is surrounded by a lipid layer," Pitzman said. The lipid layer is not particularly heat-resistant, so the virus is killed soon after the temperature rises.

Humidity also plays a major role in the infectivity of respiratory viruses. Pathogens float out of the air after being sneezed violently. "Compared to high-humidity environments, in most drier cold winter days, small droplets with viruses stay in the air for longer," Pitzman said.

In addition, infection with the virus is not only related to age and health, but also depends on gender. Estrogen can also help women fight off the virus.

"There are genetic reasons for this, because some genes related to the immune system, such as those responsible for identifying pathogens, are encoded on the X chromosome." Because women have two X chromosomes, There is only one male, so women obviously have an advantage in this regard.

The Voice of Germany specifically mentioned that perhaps when the northern hemisphere spring blooms, the new crown epidemic will really end. However, according to the WHO, at least 20 new crown cases have been detected in Australia, and Brazil has also. Both countries are in the southern hemisphere. The winter there has not yet begun.

https://www.dwnews.com/全球/60170698/冷热干湿新冠病毒到底怕什么德国医学专家答疑解惑

 

[sharon sanders]

There was a question about emergency powers acts that the federal government and state governments can declare. In general, these emergency powers allow the federal and state governments to do almost anything they want. Most likely all of us in the US will be subjected to the laws in each state. In Florida, as far as health care workers are concerned, there is a law that would allow for the reactivation of inactive licenses for 90 days. As far as I can see, in my opinion, health care workers in Florida can not be ordered to work against their will. I think, by law, the health care workers that can be required to work are in the armed forces or state guards. I am not an attorney and I am not giving legal advice.

The law in each state might be slightly different so if this is a question for you, please look at your state's laws about emergency powers.


http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0300-0399/0381/0381.html

 

[JJackson]

Here is a little maths problem for you. You will need two numbers 1] Your country's population (in 10s of millions) and 2] How many new cases/day it is reporting (go with a average over a few days). Now divide cases by pop to get your answer.
So if your population is 100m and you are reporting 2 cases a day then 2/10 = 0.2.
Now you know your score how do you compare to others.
For S. Korea 600/5 = 120
Singapore 3/0.6 = 5, Iran 80, Italy 50.
What about China? Which is still the country you are most likely to get asked about at the airport.
China (exc Hubei) 0.1
China (All) 1.4
Hubei 55

Taking daily data (or averages over a short time) is not a very reliable measure but when cases are exploding it is all we have, but it will give an indication of likely disease burden on your health system and how risky contacts with other citizens are. This data also explains why China is taking the same measures, on some outside countries, as they had been applying to China.
Edit
For countries outside China (with rapidly changing numbers) I used the average from the last 3 WHO situation reports, for China (which is fairly stable or slowly falling) I used a 7 day average. Note also that China is dealing with 200 case a day while it had been coping with 2000 so should have no capacity problems and should not be missing much. Iran, on the other hand, has a far higher number of deaths than you would expect implying it has been suffering more community transmission, and for a longer time, than its reported numbers show so its score of 80 is probably an underestimate.

 

[Pathfinder]

Censored Contagion
How Information on the Coronavirus is Managed on Chinese Social Media

By Lotus Ruan, Jeffrey Knockel, and Masashi Crete-Nishihata
March 3, 2020Key Findings

• YY, a live-streaming platform in China, began to censor keywords related to the coronavirus outbreak on December 31, 2019, a day after doctors (including the late Dr. Li Wenliang) tried to warn the public about the then unknown virus.
• WeChat broadly censored coronavirus-related content (including critical and neutral information) and expanded the scope of censorship in February 2020. Censored content included criticism of government, rumours and speculative information on the epidemic, references to Dr. Li Wenliang, and neutral references to Chinese government efforts on handling the outbreak that had been reported on state media.
• Many of the censorship rules are broad and effectively block messages that include names for the virus or sources for information about it. Such rules may restrict vital communication related to disease information and prevention.

...
https://citizenlab.ca/2020/03/censor...-social-media/

 

[Missouriwatcher]

CATO Institute of Health figures 0.46% CFR or possibly less https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading-arithmetic-covid-19-death-rates

James Hamblin reported in The Atlantic Health (Feb 25) that according to Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology Harvard, he is predicting that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

WorldOMeter estimates world population at nearly 8 billion.

Based on above, this might indicate that by year's end potentially we could have 3 - 5.5 billion people at various stages of COVID-19.
If CFR is .46% would this mean that potentially by year's end there could be nearly 14 to 25 million worldwide deaths if COVID-19 is not contained?

[h=3][/h]

 

[Emily]

There's an interview with an NY infectious disease/ER doctor in this video. He thinks CFR would be close to your number, Missouriwatcher (.2 to .4 I think I remember). That was based on S. Korea numbers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8

But S. Korea had that devastating church spread. Maybe that is why the range. Possibly an effective antiviral will be found, or supportive treatment so it is hard to predict. If we could quickly institute good biosecurity for nursing homes, rehab centers, etc, in parts of the US that haven't been hit yet I think our death toll would be lower this year.

 

[sharon sanders]

Somewhere in New York I think....



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[mscox]

The CFR is highly variable and hard to predict. In the initial stages of detection, often the CFR will look artificially high, because you are seeing/detecting only the more critical and severe cases. As you begin more aggressive tracing and testing, you will catch more of the milder cases and begin intervention sooner and hence the CFR comes down. This is where Singapore and South Korea are now. If you DO NOT contain the spread, then the number of sick patients begins to overwhelm your hospital system and the CFR will increase (potentially dramatically). This is a significant risk for every country whose response is delayed or insufficient.

 

[Emily]

I think Costco shoppers have a hoarder mentality to some extent. (Used to be one myself.) The regular grocery stores have plenty of food and toilet paper, (Puget Sound area). A clerk at a regular grocery store told my husband that there is no panic buying there but he heard the local Costco's are out of toilet paper. My husband did notice that the organic soup section was picked over at the regular supermarket. Maybe organic buyers are more fearful by nature. (And I am an organic buyer so no offense meant.)

 

[Emily]

mscox, do you think there is any hope for getting better biosecurity defenses in place in nursing homes, etc? A lot of the fatals are coming out of one such facility near Seattle and I could see your worst case scenario as an endgame if another one gets infected soon.

 

[Shiloh]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who...-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

...World health officials said Tuesday the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva. In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said....

 

[Ronan Kelly]

USA - We have a problem. There is a press briefing on coronavirus going on in the White House right now that the media is not allowed to broadcast. No recording is allowed. Only still photos are allowed. This is truly odd.

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1...eV3YiJLfE3n8ErpE_7KoqN4glb_tgPhYDuqfus_ft4SRM

 

[mscox]

The only hope is to detect effectively, trace efficiently,enforce social distancing and mandatory quarantine/isolation. This helps to reduce the peak infections and smooth out the infected curve, which reduces the pressure on the health system and lessens the CFR. Basically what China and South Korea are doing.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Tweets from the briefing from https://twitter.com/katierogers

WH correspondent NY Times

New coronavirus #'s per
@VP
: 77 domestic cases of coronavirus. 3 additional deaths today, 9 domestic deaths total. Now 13 states plus NYC -- 14 total jurisdictions -- where coronavirus cases have been reported.
https://twitter.com/katierogers/stat...77861498335233

.
@VP
says OMB will be issuing new guidance directing all federal government agencies to review internal travel policies and to adhere to State Department advisories. Says task force will meet with CEOs of major airlines tomorrow "to talk about greater cooperation."

Great question. WH says no audio or video. I asked why and I was told it is because they said no audio.

.
@VP
: "The American people do not have to buy masks."

In briefing, Fauci says that health care officials are prioritizing safety in developing a vaccine for COVID-19. "Even though we're going at rocket speed, it's not going to be at least a year to a year and a half where we say 'we have a product, let's rev it up and give it.'"

Asked by Jim Acosta why this briefing was not on camera or audio for Americans,
@VP
says "I expect we'll be back on camera tomorrow."

CDC's Redfield: "We've got to stay grounded in data. We can't see the future. We really don't know this virus very well. What we do know for sure that in the right settings it does have the potential to move quickly." Fauci says an unknown is potential for asymptomatic infection

 

[Missouriwatcher]

The CFR figure (.46%) is from a number that CATO Institute article ( https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading...19-death-rates) figured, considering that we may never know the true denominator (or number of cases). If one were to use the CFR of 3.4% (from WHO), would it have the same death projections? Not sure how to figure.

Nonetheless, potentially a lot of deaths.

See also: Estimating the CFR 2019-nCoV
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...5-discussion-estimating-the-cfr-for-2019-ncov

 

[sharon sanders]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who...-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

...World health officials said Tuesday the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva. In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said....

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

 

[gsgs]

that 3.4% is highly dominated by Wuhan. Without Hubei it's 1.3% . Some cases may still die,
so when you take deaths/recovered then it's 6.3% worldwide and 2.7% ex Hubei.
South Korea tests lots of mild cases, they have ~0.9% when we count severe cases as 1/3 dead.
But this is with still working healthcare..
And it depends a lot on age >60 , much more than flu
For <40 or such it may currently well be almost like flu (my feeling, I didn't calculate it)

 

[Ronan Kelly]

I think the Cato institute number is low, the Korean numbers are probably the best out there giving a figure around 1% which would be a significant public health threat with high mortality. Their %positive is currently around 4%.

 

[gsgs]

yes, but what when/if they can no longer hospitalise severe cases