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Discussion - WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

vinny

Well-known member
There is no evidence of the swine flu virus spreading in a sustained way outside North America, a top World Health Organization official says.

Dr Michael Ryan, WHO Director of Global Alert and Response, praised European nations' handling of cases and said events did not seem out of control.

Mexico has cut its suspected death toll by 75 to 101, indicating the outbreak may not be as bad as initially feared.

The country has ordered a five-day shutdown in a bid to contain the virus.

Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova told the BBC that, based on samples tested, the mortality rate was comparable with that of seasonal flu.

The WHO's Dr Michael Ryan told a daily press briefing: "We have no evidence of sustained community spread outside of North America."




And he said the emergence of more cases in Europe did not mean the WHO would necessarily need to raise its global pandemic alert level.

"I think it would be, at this stage, unwise to suggest that, in any way, those events are out of control or spreading in an uncontrolled fashion," he told a daily press briefing.

"I think the next few days will tell as this develops."

Dr Ryan added: "At the present time I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we see the disease spread."

The WHO is sending 2.4m courses of antiviral treatment to 72 nations around the world, Dr Ryan said, among them many developing countries.

The WHO was still trying to establish the severity of the swine flu virus, he added.

Italy reported its first case on Saturday, bringing the number of countries affected to 17.

In Egypt, authorities have begun in earnest the slaughter of more than 300,000 pigs, in what was originally described as a precaution against swine flu.

Officials now say the move is a general health measure aimed at restoring order to Egypt's pig-rearing industry.

Experts say the virus cannot be caught from eating pork and there is no scientific rationale for the cull.



International experts say there is no scientific rationale for Egypt's pig cull
Five countries outside Mexico have confirmed person-to-person transmission.

China is trying to stop the spread of the virus, after getting its first case on Friday.

It says it will quarantine all those who travelled on a flight from Mexico with a man suffering from swine flu.

Flights from Mexico have been suspended, and fellow guests and staff at the Hong Kong hotel where he was staying have been quarantined.

On Saturday, Mexico's foreign minister advised citizens not to travel to China to avoid the health measures being taken there against Mexicans.

South Korea has also now confirmed a case of the virus.

Risk remains

In cases outside Mexico, the effects do not appear to be severe.

The US has now confirmed 160 cases of swine flu across 21 states but has seen only one death, of a Mexican toddler in Texas.

President Barack Obama said in his weekly radio address that the US was taking "all necessary precautions" to ensure it was prepared if the virus developed into "something worse".


SYMPTOMS - WHAT TO DO
Swine flu symptoms are similar to those produced by ordinary seasonal flu - fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, chills and fatigue
If you have flu symptoms and recently visited affected areas of Mexico, you should seek medical advice
If you suspect you are infected, you should stay at home and take advice by telephone initially, in order to minimise the risk of infection


Q&A: What is swine flu?
Mexican economy squeezed by flu
In pictures: Flu concern grows
The quest for a swine flu vaccine
Dr Anne Schuchat, acting deputy director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said that although experts were concerned about the possibility of severe cases, the majority so far had been "mild, self-limited illness".

The new virus lacked the traits that made the 1918 flu pandemic so deadly, another CDC official said.

Mr Cordova appeared to agree, saying that the Mexican authorities may, on reflection, have overestimated the danger.

He said 43.7% of samples from suspected cases so far tested had come back positive, a total of 397. Sixteen in this group had died.

"That means that apparently, the rate of attack is not as wide as was thought," he said.

But he stressed that the risk of a rise in infection remains and said some elements of the five-day shutdown - in which many public buildings and businesses have been closed and people urged to stay at home - might be extended.

There is growing concern about the effect the virus could have on Mexico's economy.

Several US air carriers say they will cut flights to Mexico as demand falls amid concerns over the crisis. Tourism has plummeted since the outbreak was declared a week ago.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8030859.stm
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

#1: ...

Didn't the same formula of words be stated 1-2 week previously for the INSIDE North America but outside of Mexico (USA/Canada)?

This could be (and probably are) the same de ja vu.

Could be that after 2 weeks, they would included EU into the "inside North", and prolonged a few weeks to state the same for Africa/China ...


P.S.
All this mess a month after the appearance in Mexico.
Do not this reasemble the novel pandemic spreading schedule from the same previous WHO guideliness ...
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

hmmmm 35,000 samples haven't been tested but once again it comes down to what the Government feels is most important...

There is growing concern about the effect the virus could have on Mexico's economy.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Well let's put it this way....

By the end of this weekend, 40,000 tourists will have left Cancun, Mexico for their homeland.

Since the virus is obviously in Cancun Mexico, there should be little doubt that we are going to see these tourists carry the virus back to their home country. I posted a story earlier today about Canadian tourists returning home and their parents meeting them at the airport with lots of hugs and kisses. Since the virus has a 2-5 incubation period and you can be shedding the virus at least one day before you are symptomatic I think it is fair to say that Europe will not be seeing the end Swine Flu anytime soon.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

We know WHO means "not sustained" is of course referring to H2H - 2nd and 3rd generation + beyond inception in Mexico and introduction in home countries et al - but the following is a compelling counterpoint argument that it is surely "not static" either =

http://www.swine-flu-map-animation.com/
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Now compare that with this animation map from 1918.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/maps/index.html

Really puts things in perspective on what the situation is probably going to look like in a couple of weeks.


The only perspective I continue to see is the horrific temptation of people to draw conclusions without proof.

If one have to be sincere, we could also expect a very high mortality from a novel pathogen, well beyond the 1918 pandemic.

But 1918 is not the Alpha and Omega of influenza.

People want to be scared, people also want to live more time; the life must continue out there.

If 1918/2009 scenario will happen: hurrah to the novel Cassandras.

If someone here will survive, then Cassandras should consider another job!:(
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

#7: ...

Iron., pardon me,

but it is not a matter if "somebody" will surive (the 1% of population with their cell/egg fresh production line vaccines which obviously they would got in time), but the majority.

The Cassandras have won even this moment, because there is an worldwide spreaded pandemic of an novel human triple strain pandemic flu virus!

All the "rationalists", and the "chicken little enforcers" stated that it is of low possibility, because of the stability of the bird flu virus.

So now, we have another virus, bright new.

Is this all not enaugh for you to start thinking that maybe things are not like the health guildes presenting it localy?

More history. More introduction in the ancient times.

If this goes full blown it could not be compared with anything after WW2.

Why times from times the rabbits population deminish on 10% (90pc killed)? Because of an virus. Aussi used viruses to exterminate some overpopulating species.
Why do you think this is so impossible even for a serious pandemic of 10%CFR as at the begining in Mexico?

Some cultures have hard quarantines settled during the ancient plagues, and don't have airplains.

At the contrary, we left it willingly more to enter into our naive lands by the fogging of "air travel passengers neccessities/tourism/...".
If the need exists, it must be contained and strictly quarantined at the arival - as the ships at the anchors.

Precisely as the Chinese did with the hotel/spe. facility quarantine - that kind of isolation bring good fruits at the SARS times also, but flu is obviously more elusive.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

We know WHO means "not sustained" is of course referring to H2H - 2nd and 3rd generation + beyond inception in Mexico and introduction in home countries et al - but the following is a compelling counterpoint argument that it is surely "not static" either =

http://www.swine-flu-map-animation.com/
No, what we know is that WHO moronic statements are spreading. There are probably AT LEAST 200,000 cases in Mexico as well as Canadian SWINE).
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

No, what we know is that WHO moronic statements are spreading. There are probably AT LEAST 200,000 cases in Mexico as well as Canadian SWINE).


__________________________
Dr. N -

Thank you for the clarity - once again.

I would like to apply for the job of 'straight man' in your road show.

You are the John the baptist of virology and epidemiology - the voice in the wilderness that saw all this coming - and never deviated from point.

I am chairing the committee for the erection of the Bronze statue of you, in our town square Park know as "I TOLD YOU SO PARK" -

That quite accurately shall be forged with the inscription:


HENRY L. NIMAN​
" He tried to tell them. . . ."​
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

When I scan NewsNow & twitter, all I see are headlines, one after another, showing the spread of this flu, both from Mexican contact and community contact.

Interspersed with those headlines are ones about the WHO or some agency claiming this flu is no big thang, stabilizing, mild, etc.

Which do you believe? Reports from local sources, ma'am on the street? Or some giant government agency vested in keeping people from panicking?
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Part of the CDC mission is to prevent panic during health emergencies. When you hear stories of emergency rooms overwhelmed with the "worried well," causing delay of care for the truly sick, you can understand why.

Nonetheless, I strongly disagree with the paternalistic policy of our govt health agencies regarding the release of data in a pandemic situation. The CDC releases info based on the public's "need to know" rather than on any kind of "right to know." Last night I was reading some CDC training materials on how to communicate to the public during health emergencies. It was mentioned that many in the agency feel that the public needs to "get out of their way so they can do their job." They definitely seem to believe they know what's best for us.

Furthermore, I believe that a sense that we're not getting the whole story (and the American people are not stupid) only leads to increased panic.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

__________________________
Dr. N -

Thank you for the clarity - once again.

I would like to apply for the job of 'straight man' in your road show.

You are the John the baptist of virology and epidemiology - the voice in the wilderness that saw all this coming - and never deviated from point.

I am chairing the committee for the erection of the Bronze statue of you, in our town square Park know as "I TOLD YOU SO PARK" -

That quite accurately shall be forged with the inscription:


HENRY L. NIMAN

" He tried to tell them. . . ."
:)
:cool:

Unintentionaly, you came it near Extra., we can REALY erect bronze statues to many,
but the populace did not dig it.

At the same time we need also ... for the other guys who fogged it at the time
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Part of the CDC mission is to prevent panic during health emergencies. When you hear stories of emergency rooms overwhelmed with the "worried well," causing delay of care for the truly sick, you can understand why.

Nonetheless, I strongly disagree with the paternalistic policy of our govt health agencies regarding the release of data in a pandemic situation. The CDC releases info based on the public's "need to know" rather than on any kind of "right to know." Last night I was reading some CDC training materials on how to communicate to the public during health emergencies. It was mentioned that many in the agency feel that the public needs to "get out of their way so they can do their job." They definitely seem to believe they know what's best for us.

Furthermore, I believe that a sense that we're not getting the whole story (and the American people are not stupid) only leads to increased panic.

Precisely right.

I'm glad to hear from the WHO yesterday brifing, that they have enaugh autonomy to said that they did not at the moment receive any evidence (from CDC or whatsoever) of the claims that we can relax ourself because this virus have not more deadly gen. capabilities.

Of course it will be very good if it came out and vanish without coming back further, but seems that it is not the case for now.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

........Which do you believe? Reports from local sources, ma'am on the street? Or some giant government agency vested in keeping people from panicking?

Information peddlers are confusing "spread seriousness" with "virulence seriousness".

It's entirely possible to have a mild flu that spreads wildly everywhere. How should we describe that mild one, compared to a very deadly flu that didn't spread well? It's a difficult balancing act and they're using imperfect measuring tools.

One point that is not being portrayed, is that while this swine flu may today be milder than a worst-case, it is almost certain to swap genetic material with seasonal H1N1 soon. That will most-likely increase "virulence seriousness".

.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Maybe this is asking too much, but my questions are:

How do we know the virulence will increase after the H1N1 virus passes from H to pigs and then to birds and or humans, again? Please paint a specific scenario. Does it pick up a specific polymorphism in human H1N1 or vice versa?

What is the probability of Swine Flu recombining with H5N1? Is there an H5N1 polymorphism series that could recombine or reassort into Swine Flu?

We see the PB2 avian in Swine Flu, so is it reasonable to project Swine Flu will infect avians who will themselves be able to pass the high virulence polymoprhism from H5N1 back to pigs in a 3rd world Southern Hemisphere country?

(Niman just observed how easily Swine H1N1 passed from H 2 Pig.)
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Information peddlers are confusing "spread seriousness" with "virulence seriousness".

It's entirely possible to have a mild flu that spreads wildly everywhere. How should we describe that mild one, compared to a very deadly flu that didn't spread well? It's a difficult balancing act and they're using imperfect measuring tools.

One point that is not being portrayed, is that while this swine flu may today be milder than a worst-case, it is almost certain to swap genetic material with seasonal H1N1 soon. That will most-likely increase "virulence seriousness".

.

As with so many news stories the media sensationalized the Swine Flu pandemic threat (spread + virulence) building expectations that this would be the 'big one'. With the news cycle attention span being so short and virulence out of the picture for now, the mantra has switched to "the whole Swine Flu thing was overblown and it's no big deal".

An already sceptical public is not only being fed poor quality info from the media but more importantly is being desensitized such that when/if the virulent phase comes in the autumn it may be met with a complacent response from both the media and especially the public.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

I have attended most of the CDC press briefings and they have repeatedly said that they expect 2009 H1N1 to spread and that there will be more deaths. They compared the spread of this virus to the spread of the seasonal flu.

So - it is not believable that this virus would spread widely in the U.S. and not other places.
 
Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

Re: WHO Swine flu spread 'not sustained'

One of my conservative diehard Republican friends has been going off since this began about it just being media hype for the democrats to push through the health bill...

He's back now after a few days of the bi-directional flu wide eyed with a whole new attitude. He says it was like when he got seasick crossing the Atlantic on a cruise ship.

The sicker he got, the more he wanted to die... and it just never ended.

he says his toes are sore he spent so much time singing to the porcelan god...
 
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