Discussion: Will the Zika epidemic be over soon?

[Laidback Al]

Excerpt from [h=1]Countering Zika in Latin America[/h]

1. Neil M. Ferguson,
2. Zulma M. Cucunub?,
3. Ilaria Dorigatti,
4. Gemma L. Nedjati-Gilani,
5. Christl A. Donnelly,
6. Maria-Gloria Bas??ez[SUP]1[/SUP],
7. Pierre Nouvellet,
8. Justin Lessler

1. Corresponding author. Email: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk

1. These authors contributed equally.

Science 14 Jul 2016:

DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219
Full link: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2016/07/13/science.aag0219.full

. . .
We expect the current [Zika] epidemic to be largely over in 3 years, with seasonal oscillations in incidence caused by variation in mosquito populations and transmissibility. Herd immunity will likely then cause a delay of over a decade until further large epidemics are possible . . .

What is the likelihood that the virus will become endemic or that sporadic epidemics will occur with sufficient regularity to pose an equivalent risk? Our analysis suggests that once the current epidemic is over, herd immunity will lead to a delay of at least a decade before large epidemics may recur . . .

 

[sharon sanders]

I hope they are correct. Plus there may be a vaccine available in about 3 years. Meanwhile...


snip

The new analyses are not without detractors.

“I think this model is a real overreach of the data we have,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. Osterholm pointed to the four-year spread across the United States of the West Nile virus — which is in the same family of viruses as Zika. Because only mosquitoes and not birds are implicated in its spread, Zika, he said, likely spreads far less fast. Yet Zika is thought by the researchers to have covered far more ground in much less time than West Nile took to spread.

“I really believe the worst is yet to come with Zika throughout the Americas,” said Osterholm. “It has not peaked.”


http://www.latimes.com/science/scien...nap-story.html

 

[Laidback Al]

?I really believe the worst is yet to come with Zika throughout the Americas,? said Osterholm. ?It has not peaked.?

http://www.latimes.com/science/scien...nap-story.html

That of course will only be known at a later date after it happens. The real questions is - – How long before the world reaches a level of herd immunity to the Zika virus? The number of asymptomatic cases is unknown, although the World Health Organization states "A high rate of asymptomatic infection with Zika virus is expected, similar to other flaviviruses, such as dengue virus and West Nile virus." (link)

 

[Pathfinder]

Zika cases decline in Martinique:
...

The gray areas correspond to periods of school holidays, during which consultations were less frequent
...
http://www.martinique.franceantille...l-epidemie-de-zika-en-decroissance-369094.php