tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Infect
. 2024 Nov 18:152:e144.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001274. Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on the meta-SEIRS model
Wenhui Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xuefeng Tang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Ying Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Miaoshuang Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xinyue Han[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuhuan Xie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qiang Lv[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rongjie Wei[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Dingzi Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Changhong Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tao Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Predicting epidemic trends of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a key public health concern globally today. However, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection rate in previous studies of the transmission dynamics model was mostly a fixed value. Therefore, we proposed a meta-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) model by adding a time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate to the transmission dynamics model to more accurately characterize the changes in the number of infected persons. The time-varying reinfection rate was estimated using random-effect multivariate meta-regression based on published literature reports of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates. The meta-SEIRS model was constructed to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 from February to December 2023 in Sichuan province. Finally, according to the online questionnaire survey, the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at the end of December 2022 in Sichuan province was 82.45%. The time-varying effective reproduction number in Sichuan province had two peaks from July to December 2022, with a maximum peak value of about 15. The prediction results based on the meta-SEIRS model showed that the highest peak of the second wave of COVID-19 in Sichuan province would be in late May 2023. The number of new infections per day at the peak would be up to 2.6 million. We constructed a meta-SEIRS model to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Sichuan province, which was consistent with the trend of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in China. Therefore, a meta-SEIRS model parameterized based on evidence-based data can be more relevant to the actual situation and thus more accurately predict future trends in the number of infections.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; meta-SEIRS; reinfection rate; transmission dynamics model.
. 2024 Nov 18:152:e144.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001274. Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on the meta-SEIRS model
Wenhui Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xuefeng Tang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Ying Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Miaoshuang Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xinyue Han[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuhuan Xie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qiang Lv[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rongjie Wei[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Dingzi Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Changhong Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tao Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 39552127
- DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001274
Predicting epidemic trends of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a key public health concern globally today. However, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection rate in previous studies of the transmission dynamics model was mostly a fixed value. Therefore, we proposed a meta-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) model by adding a time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate to the transmission dynamics model to more accurately characterize the changes in the number of infected persons. The time-varying reinfection rate was estimated using random-effect multivariate meta-regression based on published literature reports of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates. The meta-SEIRS model was constructed to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 from February to December 2023 in Sichuan province. Finally, according to the online questionnaire survey, the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at the end of December 2022 in Sichuan province was 82.45%. The time-varying effective reproduction number in Sichuan province had two peaks from July to December 2022, with a maximum peak value of about 15. The prediction results based on the meta-SEIRS model showed that the highest peak of the second wave of COVID-19 in Sichuan province would be in late May 2023. The number of new infections per day at the peak would be up to 2.6 million. We constructed a meta-SEIRS model to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Sichuan province, which was consistent with the trend of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in China. Therefore, a meta-SEIRS model parameterized based on evidence-based data can be more relevant to the actual situation and thus more accurately predict future trends in the number of infections.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; meta-SEIRS; reinfection rate; transmission dynamics model.