tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Infect
. 2024 Oct 2:152:e112.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001043. Risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in England: a multilevel modelling study using routine contact tracing data
Hannah L Moore[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Charlie Turner[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chris Rawlinson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Cong Chen[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Neville Q Verlander[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Charlotte Anderson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Gareth J Hughes[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Contact tracing for COVID-19 in England operated from May 2020 to February 2022. The clinical, demographic and exposure information collected on cases and their contacts offered a unique opportunity to study secondary transmission. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of host factors and exposure settings on secondary COVID-19 transmission risk using 550,000 sampled transmission links between cases and their contacts. Links, or 'contact episodes', were established where a contact subsequently became a case, using an algorithm accounting for incubation period, setting, and contact date. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate adjusted odds of transmission. Of sampled episodes, 8.7% resulted in secondary cases. Living with a case (71% episodes) was the most significant risk factor (aOR = 2.6, CI = 1.9-3.6). Other risk factors included unvaccinated status (aOR = 1.2, CI = 1.2-1.3), symptoms, and older age (66-79 years; aOR = 1.4, CI = 1.4-1.5). Whilst global COVID-19 strategies emphasized protection outside the home, including education, travel, and gathering restrictions, this study evidences the relative importance of household transmission. There is a need to reconsider the contribution of household transmission to future control strategies and the requirement for effective infection control within households.
Keywords: COVID-19; contact tracing; health policy; public health; transmission.
. 2024 Oct 2:152:e112.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001043. Risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in England: a multilevel modelling study using routine contact tracing data
Hannah L Moore[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Charlie Turner[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chris Rawlinson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Cong Chen[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Neville Q Verlander[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Charlotte Anderson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Gareth J Hughes[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 39355865
- DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824001043
Contact tracing for COVID-19 in England operated from May 2020 to February 2022. The clinical, demographic and exposure information collected on cases and their contacts offered a unique opportunity to study secondary transmission. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of host factors and exposure settings on secondary COVID-19 transmission risk using 550,000 sampled transmission links between cases and their contacts. Links, or 'contact episodes', were established where a contact subsequently became a case, using an algorithm accounting for incubation period, setting, and contact date. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate adjusted odds of transmission. Of sampled episodes, 8.7% resulted in secondary cases. Living with a case (71% episodes) was the most significant risk factor (aOR = 2.6, CI = 1.9-3.6). Other risk factors included unvaccinated status (aOR = 1.2, CI = 1.2-1.3), symptoms, and older age (66-79 years; aOR = 1.4, CI = 1.4-1.5). Whilst global COVID-19 strategies emphasized protection outside the home, including education, travel, and gathering restrictions, this study evidences the relative importance of household transmission. There is a need to reconsider the contribution of household transmission to future control strategies and the requirement for effective infection control within households.
Keywords: COVID-19; contact tracing; health policy; public health; transmission.