Euro Surveill. Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the D

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Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(12). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256.
Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.


Russell TW[SUP]1[/SUP], Hellewell J[SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]1[/SUP], Jarvis CI[SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]1[/SUP], van Zandvoort K[SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]1[/SUP], Abbott S[SUP]1[/SUP], Ratnayake R[SUP]3,[/SUP][SUP]1[/SUP], Cmmid Covid-Working Group[SUP]4[/SUP], Flasche S[SUP]1[/SUP], Eggo RM[SUP]1[/SUP], Edmunds WJ[SUP]1[/SUP], Kucharski AJ[SUP]1[/SUP].

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Abstract

Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38-3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3-2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2-1.3), respectively.



KEYWORDS:

COVID-19; Case fatality ratio; asymptomatic; coronavirus; cruise ship; infection fatality ratio; outbreak; severity


PMID:32234121DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256
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