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Eurosurv. Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France

tetano

tetano

Editor, Senior Moderator
Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.

full article


https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272#html_fulltext
 
We estimated that social distancing progressively implemented at the start of January 2021 was able to bring the effective reproductive number of the historical SARS-CoV-2 strains below 1, leading to its decline, while B.1.1.7 cases increased exponentially. School holidays in February slowed down the dynamics further. The predicted growth in this variant?s frequency and the date when it became the dominant strain matched recent data.
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It seems that western restrictions are just causing a shift from a less transmissible virus to a more transmissible virus. The virus is 'smarter' than our public health policies.
 
In an advertisement on TV this morning in France, it is mentioned that 75% of the population has hypovitaminosis D.

where are the official publications?
Do these publications take into account scientific data, that is to say, age, skin color and sex?
 
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