Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off

[FrenchieGirl]

Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off
Agence France-Presse
Published: Thursday, July 2, 2009

GENEVA -- The World Health Organisation still expects the swine flu pandemic to subside in the northern hemisphere over the summer, despite its persistence in the likes of the United States and Britain.

Some 89,921 people in 125 countries and territories have caught swine flu, with 382 having died since the outbreak was uncovered in April, World Health Organisation data released Friday showed.

Some 12,720 new laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1) cases have been reported, including 50 deaths, since the last bulletin on Wednesday.

Sylvie Briand, interim head of the WHO’s influenza programme, said that cases of flu should still be expected but transmission would slow down thanks to the combined impact of the heat and school holidays.

“First of all there’s a climactic aspect, knowing that flu viruses survive better in the cold than in the heat,” Briand told AFP.

“The other important element is the density of contact between people. Children are on holiday and we don’t have the outbreaks in schools like we had in the United States at the beginning of the epidemic,” she added.

Even if the influenza A(H1N1) virus is new, “I think we will nonetheless have the same seasonal nature and transmission will decline in the northern hemisphere this summer, with a weak proportion of severe cases,” Briand said.

England’s Health Secretary Andy Burnham said Tuesday that 100,000 cases a day could occur across England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales by the end of August if the current infection rate is maintained, stressing it was a projection.

In Washington, the White House said it would hold a high-level meeting next week bringing together top government officials to prepare for the possibility of a more severe outbreak of A(H1N1) influenza.

The meeting was called after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that at least one million people in the United States have had swine flu, basing the projection partly on computer models.

British authorities have indicated that officially reported infections may fall well short of the true number of cases.

At the WHO Briand suggested this was largely expected.

“Of course, because there are already a lot of cases where people have few symptoms where they just have a light cough and don’t go to the doctor,” she said.

“There are even asymptomatic cases of people who are carrying the virus and do not even know it.”

Briand said the WHO was thinking of ending its global reporting of laboratory-confirmed cases of swine flu in each country, because it had become “almost unmanageable” to confirm all the cases.

“This data does account for a certain reality and especially the number of countries infected, which shows that most of the earth is now infected,” said Briand.

However, “after a certain moment, counting is of little interest and represents just a considerable loss of time for countries,” she explained.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off

Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off
Agence France-Presse
Published: Thursday, July 2, 2009

Briand said the WHO was thinking of ending its global reporting of laboratory-confirmed cases of swine flu in each country, because it had become ?almost unmanageable? to confirm all the cases.

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TMTC doesn't mean its going DOWN.

 

[FrenchieGirl]

Re: Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off

1. My recall is that a pandemic virus does not necessarily subside in summer; besides, if Central American countries are any examples, they're hot (and humid) and have been so for the last two months, despite this period being their "winter". This is also true for Asia, where the virus is taking hold in tropical zones. It does look like A/H1N1 doesn't mind hot and humid climates that much.

2. As for children not going to school, they're going to be sent to holiday camps or holidays abroad. July and August are the major months of holidays in the Northern Hemisphere. One only has to look up the tourism trade fluxes to see that countires are going to have H1N1 happily exchanging cuddles between Europe and the Americas, Americas and Asia, Europe and Asia.

3. On the question of counting, I find it bizarre that countries and the WHO would want to implement or advise any course of action to counter or mitigate a pandemic without having some decent way of counting figures for this illness. Understandably, some countries may be stretched in resources, but then isn't it WHO's role to help them doing this tasks? WHO received funds for this pandemic and it has offices in most of countries which may require this help. That goes true with respect to the means of the United Nations, money and staff, which is the overseeing body of WHO. As for stretched resources in modern countries, where WHO does not have "help offices", they might usefully be found by employing those that have been laid off by the economic recession.

4. As to the question of asymptomatic/mild illnesses, the only way to be sure of the proportion of these is going to be to have wide-scale testing of antibodies. If countries or WHO can't count those in need of doctors and hospitals, where will they find the resources to implement an antibody research study?

 

[JimO]

Re: Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off

I certainly hope we see a decline, but the evidence is mixed, suggesting it might be declining in some places, but increasing in others.

I can understand why they would want to reduce the effort required to report confirmed cases by nation, but I'm not convinced that the motivation isn't politically or economically motivated. Most of the people I talk to don't even realize it's still spreading. It's old news for them. I think that, for some reason, many governments want it that way.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off

1. My recall is that a pandemic virus does not necessarily subside in summer; besides, if Central American countries are any examples, they're hot (and humid) and have been so for the last two months, despite this period being their "winter". This is also true for Asia, where the virus is taking hold in tropical zones. It does look like A/H1N1 doesn't mind hot and humid climates that much.

2. As for children not going to school, they're going to be sent to holiday camps or holidays abroad. July and August are the major months of holidays in the Northern Hemisphere. One only has to look up the tourism trade fluxes to see that countires are going to have H1N1 happily exchanging cuddles between Europe and the Americas, Americas and Asia, Europe and Asia.

3. On the question of counting, I find it bizarre that countries and the WHO would want to implement or advise any course of action to counter or mitigate a pandemic without having some decent way of counting figures for this illness. Understandably, some countries may be stretched in resources, but then isn't it WHO's role to help them doing this tasks? WHO received funds for this pandemic and it has offices in most of countries which may require this help. That goes true with respect to the means of the United Nations, money and staff, which is the overseeing body of WHO. As for stretched resources in modern countries, where WHO does not have "help offices", they might usefully be found by employing those that have been laid off by the economic recession.

4. As to the question of asymptomatic/mild illnesses, the only way to be sure of the proportion of these is going to be to have wide-scale testing of antibodies. If countries or WHO can't count those in need of doctors and hospitals, where will they find the resources to implement an antibody research study?

Maybe they think pandemic influenza DOES read press releases!

 

[tropical]

Re: Even as cases rise, WHO sees swine flu tailing off

I think also that the points from FrenchyGirl post #3 will reveal itself as a real current situation.