tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2019 May 15. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2019.1619406. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Exploring the Potential Public Health Benefits of Universal Influenza Vaccine.[/h] Nowalk MP[SUP]1[/SUP], DePasse JV[SUP]2[/SUP], Smith KJ[SUP]3[/SUP], Raviotta JM[SUP]1[/SUP], Shim E[SUP]4[/SUP], Zimmerman RK[SUP]1[/SUP], Brown ST[SUP]5[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Broadly protective, long-lasting universal influenza vaccines are under development in response to low-moderate seasonal vaccine effectiveness, frequent genetic changes in circulating viruses and extended turnaround for vaccine manufacture. Because a long-lasting vaccine might be less effective than a seasonal vaccine that has been matched to current circulating strains, the public health impact of its introduction should be evaluated.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] A modified agent-based model (ABM), examined multi-year effects of a universal vaccine among 18-49-year-olds, given in Year 1 only. The proportion of vaccinated 18-49-year-olds who received universal vaccine was varied from 0% to 100%. Model parameters were drawn from U.S. data bases and the medical literature. Outcomes were 4-year cumulative and annual influenza cases as well as annual cases averted/100,000 population for 3 age groups, 0-17 years, 18-49 years, and 50+ years.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] In Year 1 when universal vaccine was given to 50% or 100% of all vaccinated 18-49-year-olds, more influenza cases occurred, compared to no universal vaccine, but fewer cases occurred in Years 2-4 as overall protection increased. Cumulative averted cases over 4 years in 18-49-year-olds were 892/100,000 and 1,687/100,000 population for the 50% and 100% universal vaccine for 18-49-year-olds scenarios, respectively, with additional benefits to children and older adults through indirect effects.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] In ABM, the universal vaccine with a conservative VE estimate given once to 18-49-year-olds reduced influenza cases among all age groups in Years 2-4 following its introduction. Reduced influenza burden may occur sooner if VE of universal vaccines exceeds that assumed in these models.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; agent-based modeling; universal influenza vaccine
PMID: 31091166 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2019.1619406
[h=1]Exploring the Potential Public Health Benefits of Universal Influenza Vaccine.[/h] Nowalk MP[SUP]1[/SUP], DePasse JV[SUP]2[/SUP], Smith KJ[SUP]3[/SUP], Raviotta JM[SUP]1[/SUP], Shim E[SUP]4[/SUP], Zimmerman RK[SUP]1[/SUP], Brown ST[SUP]5[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Broadly protective, long-lasting universal influenza vaccines are under development in response to low-moderate seasonal vaccine effectiveness, frequent genetic changes in circulating viruses and extended turnaround for vaccine manufacture. Because a long-lasting vaccine might be less effective than a seasonal vaccine that has been matched to current circulating strains, the public health impact of its introduction should be evaluated.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] A modified agent-based model (ABM), examined multi-year effects of a universal vaccine among 18-49-year-olds, given in Year 1 only. The proportion of vaccinated 18-49-year-olds who received universal vaccine was varied from 0% to 100%. Model parameters were drawn from U.S. data bases and the medical literature. Outcomes were 4-year cumulative and annual influenza cases as well as annual cases averted/100,000 population for 3 age groups, 0-17 years, 18-49 years, and 50+ years.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] In Year 1 when universal vaccine was given to 50% or 100% of all vaccinated 18-49-year-olds, more influenza cases occurred, compared to no universal vaccine, but fewer cases occurred in Years 2-4 as overall protection increased. Cumulative averted cases over 4 years in 18-49-year-olds were 892/100,000 and 1,687/100,000 population for the 50% and 100% universal vaccine for 18-49-year-olds scenarios, respectively, with additional benefits to children and older adults through indirect effects.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] In ABM, the universal vaccine with a conservative VE estimate given once to 18-49-year-olds reduced influenza cases among all age groups in Years 2-4 following its introduction. Reduced influenza burden may occur sooner if VE of universal vaccines exceeds that assumed in these models.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; agent-based modeling; universal influenza vaccine
PMID: 31091166 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2019.1619406