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Financial Balance

Re: Financial Balance

The signs of the current economic crisis were discussed here at FT almost 2.5 years ago.

If we saw it coming, where were the experts in the financial markets?.......
 
Re: Financial Balance

Florida1 said:
The signs of the current economic crisis were discussed here at FT almost 2.5 years ago.

If we saw it coming, where were the experts in the financial markets?.......
Click to expand...

Not only was the world wide potential economic crisis discussed in this thread in 2006, but the economics effects of the unfetter boom in real estate prices in the US (along with ARMs, interest only loans, etc.) were carefully dissected in 2006 as well. The prognosis at that time was dismal. To read more about the housing issues (as discussed at FluTrackers starting in 2006) see this thread:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4322

And now, the forecasts in those posts are coming true.
 
Re: Financial Balance

there are always some people predicting crisises.

What was different in 2006 ?
 
Re: Financial Balance

gsgs said:
there are always some people predicting crisises.

What was different in 2006 ?
Click to expand...

The concern is that the warning signs for the current world-wide economic crisis should have been readily apparent in 2006 to decision-makers, politicians, economists, speculators, and investors.

The potential for world-wide economic disruption from a pandemic is clearly understood today by numerous individuals and organizations (including FluTrackers). Yet, there is no evidence that world governments, global leaders, public health officials, etc. are taking the threat seriously enough to implement appropriate measures to protect the just-in-time global economic structure from a pandemic.

The next pandemic, regardless of the CFR, will bring the global economic markets to a standstill. Failure to recognize and prepare for the economic consequences of a pandemic is a failure of leadership. Failure to believe that there will even be a pandemic in the future is simply a sign of ignorance.
 
Re: Financial Balance

At least a few people get it!! Here's the final paragraph of a 5 page report

Reports Highlight Emergency Preparedness Crisis by Anthony Kimery

?This threat is just as real ? and likely during the next five years ? as was the leadership on Wall Street and in the mortgage lending industry that caused that crisis, which the federal government saw fit to bail out.

What we need is a similar financial commitment to public medical preparedness for the unthinkable ? which could be far more devastating both in terms of the economy and lives,? candidly stated the government public health preparedness official HSToday often talks to on background.

http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/6579/150/1/4/
 
Re: Financial Balance

Apologies GSGS an incorrect link was posted in my original response to your question:

GSGS said:
[there are always some people predicting crisises.

What was different in 2006 ?
Click to expand...

It has been corrected. Hope this offers more of an explanation. It is somewhat confrontational but represents some prevailing attitudes at the time. It is also interesting to witness the outcomes of those predictions mentioned.

Amish Country said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o


8/28/2006-Ron Paul Advisor Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Company
Click to expand...
 
Re: Financial Balance

I'd like to see a chart of the amount of crisis
predictions over time

google-index or such

let's say % of experts who predicted the dow would fall >30% within 2 years
or CDS would redouble

or such
 
Re: Financial Balance

GSGS I don't think it is a matter of how many are predicting what over time. IMHO it is a matter of whose predictions come to fruition.
 
Re: Financial Balance

"preparedness for the unthinkable"

It's time to change that "unthinkable" terminology.
After an proliferation of artificial organisms and bugs, mixed with relaxed safety, it can't be any more named as that.
Now it must be called as bug preventing preparedness effort.

___

"Originally Posted by kernel klink
The lifeboat is a good analogy - better to try to save the few that can be accommodated than leave all to drown."

It's a good analogy only at the first look.

1. If we analyze it, we can state that the main responsable in the case of the lifeboat question are the legislators and the scientific advisors who, prior to any thing, pass the safety guideliness laws for passenger ships.

2. The ship are submited by laws, and controlled by registers/Lloyd/... to have bulted on enaugh lifeboats to receive all the passengers in a number it was registered to carry on before it can be released to navigate.

3. The ship must not be released to navigate from the port if it does not have achieved the point 2. by investing money to all neccessary things legislated in 1., and the portual officers are in charge of.

4. The ship crew with the Capitain's supervision must be trained to safely divert ordinary the mass of passengers to the lifeboats, and drive them safely onto the sea surface.
Prior to leave the passengers to the lifeboats, and abandon the ship, the Capitain/crew must do anything possible to twarth an ship sinking.
___


Only when the nation antipandemic/antiinf.disease chain structure apply and achieve the above points 1. to 4., than it can be inserted an next stat./probability about the lifeboats:

5. After all the legislating/building/preparing/investing/training/watching and twarthing from 1. to 4, if some lifeboats crashes prior entering onto the sea surface, or other non preventable reasons entering, only than it remains the S.O.S., and the words from the begining:
"better to try to save the few that can be accommodated than leave all to drown."
 
Re: Financial Balance

We are now reaping what we have sown.


New York - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 7,000 points for the first time since 1997 on Wall Street Monday, following stock sell-offs across the globe after American International Group Inc (AIG) reported a 62-billion-dollar quarterly loss. The United States' deepening recession and financial crisis mean the blue-chip Dow has now lost more than half its value since reaching a record high of 14,000 points in October 2007. US stocks had already plunged last week to their lowest level since 1997. The Dow index lost 4.2 per cent, or 299.64 points, to 6,763.29. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 4.7 per cent, or 34.27 points, to 700.82. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index shed 4 per cent, or 54.99 points, to 1,322.85. Stocks in Europe and Japan fell sharply earlier in the day. AIG reported a loss of 99.3 billion dollars for the whole of 2008, including 61.7 billion dollars in the fourth quarter alone, due to its exposure to the US housing market downturn. The Treasury said the insurance giant would get another 30 billion dollars in government aid to help avoid bankruptcy, on top of 150 billion dollars already provided to the ailing insurer in the form of loans and guarantees. The US currency rose against the euro to 79.55 euro cents from 78.94 euro cents on Friday. The dollar fell against the Japanese currency to 97.30 yen from 97.57 yen.


The middle class - who have not seen a real rise in wages (wage gap) can not spend us out of this problem this time.
 
Re: Financial Balance

The middle class - who have not seen a real rise in wages (wage gap) can not spend us out of this problem this time.
Click to expand...

My son says: "We got ourselves in trouble partly by spending more than we make. Some propose the solution is for government to take our money and spend more than they take." :confused:
While it's supposed to work, you must admit it sounds a little crazy.

Afternoon NPR news said, that for the first time in many years, Americans are saving - yes - they saved 5% of what they made in January:).
While that's a good long term goal, it's a disaster for the short term.
This also sounds a little crazy. :D

.
 
Re: Financial Balance

AlaskaDenise said:
My son says: "We got ourselves in trouble partly by spending more than we make. Some propose the solution is for government to take our money and spend more than they take." :confused:
While it's supposed to work, you must admit it sounds a little crazy.

Afternoon NPR news said, that for the first time in many years, Americans are saving - yes - they saved 5% of what they made in January:).
While that's a good long term goal, it's a disaster for the short term.
This also sounds a little crazy. :D

.
Click to expand...
Maybe time is came that the G20 would decide to declare an total freeze of the all various values at every Market worldwide at the present value, without further possibilities to buy or sell other than with those concerted fixed values, until this "money eating black hole" dissapear.
;)

That way the real money and values could not be further damaged by this Markets speculations irrational money burning vortex, at the same time when it is dificult to sustain the real world economy.

At least, after such an decision, there would be not any more money value "burned", "loosed", "dissapeared", "infected" - so much virtual naming for an mathematic laced science as the economy are ... (or it only seems to be ...)
:rolleyes:

Let's us going back to the times of gold coins, and no papers :rolleyes: pard.me - data bits fluctuating in the net universe (maybe even in another dimension ...) :D
 
Re: Financial Balance

"With respect to a true culture and manhood, we are essentially provincial still, not metropolitan, ? mere Jonathans. We are provincial, because we do not find at home our standards; because we do not worship truth, but the reflection of truth; because we are warped and narrowed by an exclusive devotion to trade and commerce and manufactures and agriculture and the like, which are but means, and not the end."

Thoreau
Life Without Principle
 
Re: Financial Balance

sharon sanders said:
"With respect to a true culture and manhood, we are essentially provincial still, not metropolitan, — mere Jonathans. We are provincial, because we do not find at home our standards; because we do not worship truth, but the reflection of truth; because we are warped and narrowed by an exclusive devotion to trade and commerce and manufactures and agriculture and the like, which are but means, and not the end."

Thoreau
Life Without Principle
Click to expand...

It was better that Thoreau precisely point who are realy the "we",
and how much of the upper cited "we" folks realy influx the local or global economy fluxes.

At the moment when the means of commerce payings becames not hard coin but virtual,
and later their relocation became digitaly instantaneus, all the other implications appears.

Maybe the banks and the market gurus will have some future performances to show again ...
 
Re: Financial Balance

snip

Longer term, America cannot restart its economy. Already the top 5% of Americans by income account for 37% of all consumer outlays. This is unsurprising given the top 5% of Americans account for 34.7% of all income. This is similar to 1929 when the top 5% accounted for the top third of all personal income. This is precisely the type of economic structure that Kenneth Galbraith argues in The Great Crash, 1929, transformed the great crash into the great depression. Rather than being able to rely on a broad consumer base to power economic growth, the United States then (as now) was dependent on a high level of investment and luxury consumer spending driven by a small elite. The crash caused that elite to seize up, leaving the American economy paralyzed.

http://eaves.ca/2011/07/25/depressi...+Eavesca+(eaves.ca)&utm_content=Google+Reader
 
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