tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2019 Sep 3. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13342. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Fireworks-like Surveillance Approach: The case of HPAI H5N1 in Wild Birds in Europe.[/h] Pereira H[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP], Artois M[SUP]1[/SUP], Bicout DJ[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]4[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h] 1 VetAgro Sup, Veterinary Campus of Lyon, 69280, Marcy l'?toile, France. 2 Assistance Publique-H?pitaux de Paris, H?pital Europ?en Georges-Pompidou, Unit? de Recherche Clinique, Paris, France. 3 INSERM, Centre d'Investigation Clinique 1418 (CIC1418), Paris, France. 4 Biomathematics and Epidemiology, EPSP- Labo TIMC, UMR 5525, CNRS, Grenoble Alpes University and VetAgro Sup, 69280, Marcy l'?toile, France.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) risk management requires efficient surveillance of the infection in wild birds for early warning purposes. In this study, our aim was to describe the spread of continent-wide infection cases using a fireworks model and thereby improve current surveillance systems. The fireworks model is a metaphor illustrating the spread of HPAI as a point source epizootic. The approach is based on early detection of the outbreak seeds (sparks from the fireworks) and uses a predictive model of the probability of the occurrence of new cases following a seed introduction; this then determines the spatiotemporal perimeter for intense surveillance investigations. For a case study, we used surveillance data on HPAI H5N1 in wild birds across Europe between 2005 and 2010 to describe the outbreaks and determine the success of the case detection used to inform management of the disease. The fireworks description assumes simultaneous introductions of "seeds" of cases, which then "explode" in local foci but do not merge into a progressive disease wave. This model fit the data well. Using this predictive approach for HPAI cases in EU countries, we found that the investigation radius needed to achieve a detection level of 90% of new cases after an outbreak ranged from 10 km to more than 300 km, depending on the outbreak pattern. Based on these findings, the fireworks approach can be a valuable method for identifying the perimeters and risk areas to be targeted for enhanced surveillance. The rationale of the fireworks approach is quite generic and can easily be adapted to different situations and contexts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
? 2019 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] H5N1; Highly pathogenic avian influenza; fireworks-based surveillance; mathematical modelling; wild birds
PMID: 31482660 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13342
[h=1]Fireworks-like Surveillance Approach: The case of HPAI H5N1 in Wild Birds in Europe.[/h] Pereira H[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP], Artois M[SUP]1[/SUP], Bicout DJ[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]4[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h] 1 VetAgro Sup, Veterinary Campus of Lyon, 69280, Marcy l'?toile, France. 2 Assistance Publique-H?pitaux de Paris, H?pital Europ?en Georges-Pompidou, Unit? de Recherche Clinique, Paris, France. 3 INSERM, Centre d'Investigation Clinique 1418 (CIC1418), Paris, France. 4 Biomathematics and Epidemiology, EPSP- Labo TIMC, UMR 5525, CNRS, Grenoble Alpes University and VetAgro Sup, 69280, Marcy l'?toile, France.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) risk management requires efficient surveillance of the infection in wild birds for early warning purposes. In this study, our aim was to describe the spread of continent-wide infection cases using a fireworks model and thereby improve current surveillance systems. The fireworks model is a metaphor illustrating the spread of HPAI as a point source epizootic. The approach is based on early detection of the outbreak seeds (sparks from the fireworks) and uses a predictive model of the probability of the occurrence of new cases following a seed introduction; this then determines the spatiotemporal perimeter for intense surveillance investigations. For a case study, we used surveillance data on HPAI H5N1 in wild birds across Europe between 2005 and 2010 to describe the outbreaks and determine the success of the case detection used to inform management of the disease. The fireworks description assumes simultaneous introductions of "seeds" of cases, which then "explode" in local foci but do not merge into a progressive disease wave. This model fit the data well. Using this predictive approach for HPAI cases in EU countries, we found that the investigation radius needed to achieve a detection level of 90% of new cases after an outbreak ranged from 10 km to more than 300 km, depending on the outbreak pattern. Based on these findings, the fireworks approach can be a valuable method for identifying the perimeters and risk areas to be targeted for enhanced surveillance. The rationale of the fireworks approach is quite generic and can easily be adapted to different situations and contexts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
? 2019 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] H5N1; Highly pathogenic avian influenza; fireworks-based surveillance; mathematical modelling; wild birds
PMID: 31482660 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13342