tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Front Public Health
. 2022 Jan 3;9:751940.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.751940. eCollection 2021.
Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic With Multi-Population and Control Strategies in the United States
Deshun Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaojun Long[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingxiang Liu[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
As of January 19, 2021, the cumulative number of people infected with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has reached 24,433,486, and the number is still rising. The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has not only affected the development of the global economy but also seriously threatened the lives and health of human beings around the world. According to the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in the population, this study established a theoretical differential equation mathematical model, estimated model parameters through epidemiological data, obtained accurate mathematical models, and adopted global sensitivity analysis methods to screen sensitive parameters that significantly affect the development of the epidemic. Based on the established precise mathematical model, we calculate the basic reproductive number of the epidemic, evaluate the transmission capacity of the COVID-19 epidemic, and predict the development trend of the epidemic. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters and finding sensitive parameters, we can provide effective control strategies for epidemic prevention and control. After appropriate modifications, the model can also be used for mathematical modeling of epidemics in other countries or other infectious diseases.
Keywords: COVID-19; control strategies; mathematical model; parameter estimate; sensitive analysis.
. 2022 Jan 3;9:751940.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.751940. eCollection 2021.
Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic With Multi-Population and Control Strategies in the United States
Deshun Sun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaojun Long[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingxiang Liu[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35047470
- PMCID: PMC8761816
- DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.751940
Abstract
As of January 19, 2021, the cumulative number of people infected with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has reached 24,433,486, and the number is still rising. The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has not only affected the development of the global economy but also seriously threatened the lives and health of human beings around the world. According to the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in the population, this study established a theoretical differential equation mathematical model, estimated model parameters through epidemiological data, obtained accurate mathematical models, and adopted global sensitivity analysis methods to screen sensitive parameters that significantly affect the development of the epidemic. Based on the established precise mathematical model, we calculate the basic reproductive number of the epidemic, evaluate the transmission capacity of the COVID-19 epidemic, and predict the development trend of the epidemic. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters and finding sensitive parameters, we can provide effective control strategies for epidemic prevention and control. After appropriate modifications, the model can also be used for mathematical modeling of epidemics in other countries or other infectious diseases.
Keywords: COVID-19; control strategies; mathematical model; parameter estimate; sensitive analysis.