Germany: Pandemic incisions (same procedure as every year)

[german-docter]

In Germany, there seems to be a unique pattern regarding the activity-index for "acute respiratory illness" (see attachment) ... and just a shift of time this year (increase of cases coming soon ?).


Source:
Working group on influenza at the Robert Koch-Institute:
Weekly epidemiological report: week 50:
http://influenza.rki.de/

 

[gsgs]

Re: Germany: Pandemic incisions (same procedure as every year)

this is ARI in Germany, not ILI.
And we have flu-B which is not much disturbed by flu-A


http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/eu8a.JPG
for more years

 

[german-docter]

Re: Germany: Pandemic incisions (same procedure as every year)

In Germany, there seems to be a unique pattern regarding the activity-index for "acute respiratory illness" (see attachment) ... and just a shift of time this year (increase of cases coming soon ?).
(...)

this is ARI in Germany, not ILI.
And we have flu-B which is not much disturbed by flu-A


http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/eu8a.JPG
for more years

gsgs,

yes, regarding the graph, you are right in making a distinction between ARI and ILI.

The main difference in the definitions of the both diseases (which exactly are more or less just "syndromes") is that an elevated body temperature in ARE may occur or may NOT while for ILI fever > 38.5?C is a MUST.

Activity-index for ?Akute Respiratorische Erkrankung? (ARE = ARI= acute respiratory illness) includes the cases meeting the clinical case definition of influenza-like-illness (ILI) which theirselves include (and correlate with) those cases of seasonal influenza with a positive nasopharyngeal swab.

So, the early peaks of the ARI-graphs in former years usually were caused by the NON-influenza respiratory infections at the beginning of the (in-)flu(-enza) season.

The question now will be, whether the cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 we have seen until now are truly reflecting just a kind of preterm ILI main peak or whether the worse of influenza is yet to come. Right ?


source of attachments:
AGI: ARBEITSGEMEINSCHAFT INFLUENZA:
Abschlussbericht der Influenzasaison 2001/02
http://influenza.rki.de/Saisonberichte/2001.pdf

 

[gsgs]

Re: Germany: Pandemic incisions (same procedure as every year)

yes, I'm undecided.

60:40 that we saw the peek for this season already