tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Health Aff (Millwood). 2020 Apr 30:101377hlthaff202000505. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00505. [Epub ahead of print]
Thousands Of Lives Could Be Saved In The US During The COVID-19 Pandemic If States Exchanged Ventilators.
Adelman D[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
It is thought that there are not enough mechanical ventilators in the U.S. for every patient who may need one during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there is no analysis that measures the potential magnitude of the problem or proposes a solution. In this paper, I combine the pandemic forecasting model used by the federal government with estimates of ventilator availability from the literature to assess the expected shortage under various scenarios. I then propose that the federal government organize a national effort for ventilators to be exchanged between states to take advantage of the inter-temporal differences in demand peaks. I evaluate versions of this proposal, including use of the national stockpile, to estimate the number of lives that could be saved, and observe that it is potentially substantial. In the absence of other viable solutions, the government should begin this effort in earnest, and if not, preparations should be made for such coordination should the country face another pandemic in the future. [Editor's Note: This Fast Track Ahead Of Print article is the accepted version of the peer-reviewed manuscript. The final edited version will appear in an upcoming issue of Health Affairs.].
KEYWORDS:
Access to care; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Government programs and policies; Health policy; Hospitals; Intensive care units; Mortality; Pandemics; Patient outcomes; Public Health; State issues; Ventilators
PMID:32352846DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00505
Thousands Of Lives Could Be Saved In The US During The COVID-19 Pandemic If States Exchanged Ventilators.
Adelman D[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
It is thought that there are not enough mechanical ventilators in the U.S. for every patient who may need one during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there is no analysis that measures the potential magnitude of the problem or proposes a solution. In this paper, I combine the pandemic forecasting model used by the federal government with estimates of ventilator availability from the literature to assess the expected shortage under various scenarios. I then propose that the federal government organize a national effort for ventilators to be exchanged between states to take advantage of the inter-temporal differences in demand peaks. I evaluate versions of this proposal, including use of the national stockpile, to estimate the number of lives that could be saved, and observe that it is potentially substantial. In the absence of other viable solutions, the government should begin this effort in earnest, and if not, preparations should be made for such coordination should the country face another pandemic in the future. [Editor's Note: This Fast Track Ahead Of Print article is the accepted version of the peer-reviewed manuscript. The final edited version will appear in an upcoming issue of Health Affairs.].
KEYWORDS:
Access to care; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Government programs and policies; Health policy; Hospitals; Intensive care units; Mortality; Pandemics; Patient outcomes; Public Health; State issues; Ventilators
PMID:32352846DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00505