tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Hum Vaccin Immunother
. 2024 Dec 31;20(1):2338953.
doi: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2338953. Epub 2024 Apr 24. Modeling outbreaks of COVID-19 in China: The impact of vaccination and other control measures on curbing the epidemic
Wenting Zha[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Han Ni[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuxi He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wentao Kuang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jin Zhao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Liuyi Fu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Haoyun Dai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuan Lv[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nan Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xuewen Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
This study aims to examine the development trend of COVID-19 in China and propose a model to assess the impacts of various prevention and control measures in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Using COVID-19 cases reported by the National Health Commission of China from January 2, 2020, to January 2, 2022, we established a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Asymptomatic-Quarantined-Vaccinated-Hospitalized-Removed (SEIAQVHR) model to calculate the COVID-19 transmission rate and R[SUB]t[/SUB] effective reproduction number, and assess prevention and control measures. Additionally, we built a stochastic model to explore the development of the COVID-19 epidemic. We modeled the incidence trends in five outbreaks between 2020 and 2022. Some important features of the COVID-19 epidemic are mirrored in the estimates based on our SEIAQVHR model. Our model indicates that an infected index case entering the community has a 50%-60% chance to cause a COVID-19 outbreak. Wearing masks and getting vaccinated were the most effective measures among all the prevention and control measures. Specifically targeting asymptomatic individuals had no significant impact on the spread of COVID-19. By adjusting prevention and control parameters, we suggest that increasing the rates of effective vaccination and mask-wearing can significantly reduce COVID-19 cases in China. Our stochastic model analysis provides a useful tool for understanding the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Keywords: COVID-19; compartmental model; public health; stochastic.
. 2024 Dec 31;20(1):2338953.
doi: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2338953. Epub 2024 Apr 24. Modeling outbreaks of COVID-19 in China: The impact of vaccination and other control measures on curbing the epidemic
Wenting Zha[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Han Ni[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuxi He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wentao Kuang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jin Zhao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Liuyi Fu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Haoyun Dai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuan Lv[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nan Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xuewen Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 38658178
- DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2338953
This study aims to examine the development trend of COVID-19 in China and propose a model to assess the impacts of various prevention and control measures in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Using COVID-19 cases reported by the National Health Commission of China from January 2, 2020, to January 2, 2022, we established a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Asymptomatic-Quarantined-Vaccinated-Hospitalized-Removed (SEIAQVHR) model to calculate the COVID-19 transmission rate and R[SUB]t[/SUB] effective reproduction number, and assess prevention and control measures. Additionally, we built a stochastic model to explore the development of the COVID-19 epidemic. We modeled the incidence trends in five outbreaks between 2020 and 2022. Some important features of the COVID-19 epidemic are mirrored in the estimates based on our SEIAQVHR model. Our model indicates that an infected index case entering the community has a 50%-60% chance to cause a COVID-19 outbreak. Wearing masks and getting vaccinated were the most effective measures among all the prevention and control measures. Specifically targeting asymptomatic individuals had no significant impact on the spread of COVID-19. By adjusting prevention and control parameters, we suggest that increasing the rates of effective vaccination and mask-wearing can significantly reduce COVID-19 cases in China. Our stochastic model analysis provides a useful tool for understanding the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Keywords: COVID-19; compartmental model; public health; stochastic.