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Hurricane Sandy: at least 69 deaths in the Caribbean, 113 in U.S., 2 in Canada

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231736
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/231736.shtml?



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/173949.shtml?tswind120#contents


rb-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
 
Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

October 25, 2012 7:5

Hurricane Sandy has potential to be super storm for U.S.

Hurricane Sandy is lashing the Caribbean, and has the potential to become a super storm for the eastern United States next week.

Sandy made landfall in Cuba overnight as a Category 2 storm with top winds of 114 miles an hour. The hurricane is blamed for at least two deaths in the region.

The hurricane slammed directly into the island of Jamaica, crashing a boulder into a man's clapboard house and taking his life. Skirting past Haiti, the heavy downpour swelled a river, sweeping away a woman as she tried to cross it.

High winds and rough surf are already pressing the South Florida coast, but if Sandy continues to grow, the Sunshine State may see tropical storm winds as early as Thursday night.

... We're talking about a Category 2 storm. It's emerging from the Cuban coastline now. It's about 185 miles south of the Central Bahamas and the thinking is today, tonight and tomorrow the storm is going to maintain hurricane intensity as it moves through the Bahamas. That's why we could see these tropical storm force conditions in South Florida, but beyond that as we go into the weekend, we'll look for this storm to continue to parallel the East Coast, and possibly be somewhere off of the New England or northeast coastline maybe just east of the Delmarva (Peninsula) as well, Sunday night into Monday and that's when things could definitely get tricky."

Read more + video:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_...andy-has-potential-to-be-super-storm-for-u.s/
 
Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

000
WTNT33 KNHC 251157
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...81 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 967 MB...
28.55 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/251157.shtml?
 
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Halloween Horror: Hurricane Sandy Could Be 'Billion-Dollar Storm'<!-- END CLASS="STORYTITLE" --><!-- END CLASS="TWELVE COLUMNS" --><!-- END CLASS="ROW" -->

by Mark Memmott

<!-- END CLASS="BUCKETWRAP BYLINE" ID="RES163607783" PREVIEWTITLE="BYLINES" -->
<!-- END ID="STORYBYLINE" CLASS=" LINKLOCATION" --><TIME datetime="2012-10-25">October 25, 2012 7:24 AM</TIME>
...
With Hurricane Sandy coming from the South, an early winter storm bearing down from the West and arctic air sweeping in from the North, the mid-Atlantic, New England and eastern Canada should be prepared for a "perfect storm" early next week that could produce $1 billion or more in damage, warns Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters.

According to The Associated Press:
"The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say.
" 'It'll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod,' said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. 'We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.'
"It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear."
​
Comparisons are already being made to the "perfect storm" of 1991.

More...
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...hurricane-sandy-could-be-billion-dollar-storm
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Hurricane Sandy whips Bahamas after killing 21 elsewhere

By Jeff Todd, Associated Press October 25, 2012 10:13 PM

NASSAU, Bahamas -- Hurricane Sandy lashed the central Bahamas on Thursday night with violent winds and torrential rains, after raging through the Caribbean where it caused at least 21 deaths and forced postponement of a hearing at the Guantanamo naval base on Cuba.

State media in Cuba said Sandy toppled houses, ripped off roofs and killed 11 people in the eastern provinces of Santiago and Guantanamo as it roared over the island as a Category 2 storm early Thursday. Nine deaths were reported in Haiti and one in Jamaica.

Meanwhile, forecasters warned that Sandy will likely blend with a winter storm to cause a super storm in the eastern U.S. next week whose effects will be felt along the entire Atlantic Coast from Florida to Maine and inland to Ohio.

Read more:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news...as+after+killing+elsewhere/7449027/story.html
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Worst Storm in 100 Years Seen Coming for NE U.S.

By Brian K. Sullivan on October 25, 2012

Hurricane Sandy will probably grow into a ?Frankenstorm? that may become the worst to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years if current forecasts are correct.

Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England Hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland.

?What we?re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,? Kocin said in a telephone interview. ?We?re not trying to hype it, this is what we?re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.?

The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go ashore in New Jersey on Oct. 30, although landfall predictions often change as storms get closer to shore.

?If the storm follows the current hurricane center forecast, we are looking at over $5 billion in damage,? said Chuck Watson, director of research and development at Kinetic Analysis Corp. in Silver Spring, Maryland.

Read more...
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ashington-to-nyc-at-risk-from-hurricane-sandy
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

000
WTNT33 KNHC 260255
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY PASSING NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES...370 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/260255.shtml?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY
HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AT 8000 FT WERE 90 KT...AND DROPSONDES IN WHAT REMAINED OF THE
EYEWALL SUGGESTED 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
RISEN TO 968 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

SANDY HAS BEGUN ITS ANTICIPATED LEFT TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 335/11. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AFTER
THAT...A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.
AFTER 72 HR...SANDY SHOULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...A TRACK THAT SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
ONSHORE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MORE
WESTWARD POSITION AT THE 24 HOUR POINT THAT LIES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
OTHERWISE...THE TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER AND NEAR SANDY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
KEEP THE STORM GOING DESPITE 35 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION IS THAT SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN SIZE...WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE CENTRAL WINDS. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE STARTS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS EARLY
AS 96 HR...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR IT WILL HAVE PROCEEDED
BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL. THUS...THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE POST-TROPICAL IN 120 HR...WITH A VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION TO THE FIRST 36 HR DUE
TO THE OBSERVED WEAKENING THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 25.3N 76.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 34.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 40.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/260311.shtml?
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

000
WTNT33 KNHC 261153
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/261153.shtml
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Environment Canada

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements <!-- CONTENT TITLE ENDS | FIN DU TITRE DU CONTENU --><!-- contents read from bulletin: -->


WOCN31 CWHX 261145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the CanadianHurricane Centre of Environment Canada
at 8:41 AM ADT Friday26 October 2012.
</PRE>
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

This is an updated preliminary information statement to discuss
The potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada. An updated
Statement is planned for 3 PM ADT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy will be moving through the Bahamas today with winds
in excess of 120 km/h. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to track
northward while remaining at or near hurricane strength. Sandy will
begin to lose some of its tropical characteristics during the next
two days, it will however remain a large and powerful cyclone as it
shifts toward the East Coast of the United States.

Sandy will quite likely impact parts of Eastern Canada early next
week. The track and intensity will, as always, depend on many
changing factors over a period of several days. Thus, it is too
early to meaningfully state how the storm will affect particular
areas. At this point in time we encourage consulting the forecasts
periodically during the weekend.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Hurricane Sandy lashing east Central Florida coast
Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph at the beaches, forecasters said.

By Arelis R. Hern?ndez, Orlando Sentinel
8:59 a.m. EDT, October 26, 2012

Hurricane Sandy is lashing the eastern coast of Florida with strong winds and high surf topping 10 feet in some areas as squalls of moderate to heavy rain move inland toward Orlando.

The churning storm is about 200 miles off the Florida coast but its outer bands are bringing fast-moving rain showers with wind gusts peaking at 35 mph inland and exceeding 50 mph at the beaches.

Widespread rain will start and end sporadically throughout the day with rain totals up to three inches in the interior counties and up to six inches in coastal regions through Friday night.

Read more:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...andy-orlando-weather-20121026,0,5703764.story
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Hurricane Sandy kills 21, heads towards the U.S.



</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></B>By Dr. Jeff Masters

Published: 3:34 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

...
<B>Severe impacts likely in the U.S.<BIG></BIG></B>
Sandy's expected landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster. Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast, and the storm may be moving slowly enough that these conditions will persist for a full 24 hours. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The latest H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6, and the destructive potential of the storm surge much higher, at 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. With Sandy's strongest winds expected to last at least 12 hours near the time of landfall, the peak storm surge will affect the coast for at least one high tide cycle, and possibly two. This will greatly increase the potential for storm surge damage and coastal erosion. If Sandy hits Long Island, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of over-topping the flood walls in Manhattan and flooding portions of the New York City subway system. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains is also a huge concern. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will occur over several hundred mile-long swath of coast, with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible. Fortunately, soils are dry and river levels are low over most of the threatened region, which should keep Sandy's river flooding lower than that experienced last year during Hurricane Irene. Nevertheless, Sandy is shaping up to be a historic storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. that has few precedents.

Jeff Masters

Full text:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Hurricane Sandy slogs toward U.S., 41 killed in Caribbean

By Tom Brown
MIAMI | Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:54pm EDT

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Sandy, a late-season Atlantic cyclone that threatens to be one of the worst storms to hit the Northeast in decades, slogged slowly northward on Friday after killing at least 41 people in the Caribbean.

Forecasters said wind damage, widespread and extended power outages and coastal and inland flooding were anticipated across a broad swath of the densely populated U.S. East Coast when Sandy comes ashore early next week.

"We're expecting a large, large storm. The circulation of this storm as it approaches the coast could cover about the eastern third of the United States," said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Centers for Environmental Prediction.
...
On its current projected track, government forecasters said, Sandy could make landfall on Monday night or Tuesday in Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York or southern New England.

...
Full text:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/26/us-storm-sandy-hurricane-idUSBRE89N16J20121026
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

FEMA Urges Residents to Follow the Directions of Local Officials and Take Steps to Prepare for Hurricane Sandy

Main Content<ARTICLE id=node-press-release-213499 class="node node-press-release node-published node-not-promoted node-not-sticky author-brettmcmillan odd clearfix" title="Big Grin" border="0" about="/news-release/fema-urges-residents-follow-directions-local-officials-and-take-steps-prepare-hurricane" typeof="sioc:Item foaf:Document">Release date:
October 26, 2012

Release Number:
HQ-12-108

WASHINGTON ? At the direction of President Obama, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and our federal partners, through our regional offices in Atlanta, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, continue to closely monitor Hurricane Sandy. FEMA is prepared and ready to support state, local and tribal partners in responding to potential impacts of Hurricane Sandy. FEMA Regional Administrators and other senior officials in FEMA?s regional offices have been in close contact with their state counterparts in potentially affected states along the East Coast to ensure coordination for any emergency response.

Earlier today, President Obama was briefed by FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb, and Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan on Hurricane Sandy and ongoing federal actions to prepare for the storm as it continues to move toward the United States mainland. The President directed Administrator Fugate to ensure that all available federal resources are being brought to bear to support state and local responders in potentially affected areas along the eastern seaboard as they prepare for the severe weather.

In advance of the storm, and in coordination with the states, FEMA is proactively deploying Incident Management Assistance Teams to Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont to assist states and local partners as they prepare for potential impacts. Liaison officers are also being deployed to emergency operation centers in Maryland, Virginia, District of Columbia, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey to help coordinate if additional support is needed.

?Tropical storms can bring high winds, heavy rains and dangerous surf. Those along the eastern seaboard should prepare now, monitor local forecasts and follow the instructions of local officials,? urged FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. ?This is a big storm with potential impacts beyond coastal areas ? know your risks, have a plan, and be prepared. Now is the time to update your family communication plans, check your supplies, and stay informed.?

According to the NOAA National Weather Service 2 p.m. advisory, tropical storm watches and warnings remain in effect in many parts of the East Coast from Florida to North Carolina. Additional watches and warnings are anticipated in the coming days.

At all times, FEMA maintains commodities, including millions of liters of water, millions of meals and hundreds of thousands of blankets, strategically located at distribution centers throughout the United States and its territories, including Atlanta, Ga. and Frederick, Md., if needed and requested.

U.S. Northern Command is deploying Regional Defense Coordinating Officers (DCO), and portions of the Defense Coordinating Element (DCE), in advance of the storm, to validate, plan and coordinate potential Department of Defense (DOD) support of FEMA's response operations and to facilitate DOD support of life-saving and response operations.

The Department of Energy (DOE) is working closely with FEMA and in support of state and local officials is planning to deploy emergency response personnel to FEMA Regional Response Coordination Center in Boston, New York and Philadelphia over the weekend as well as putting additional personnel on standby to assist. DOE is taking steps to support state and local authorities, who are responsible for coordinating with local utility companies, as utilities begin the process of pre-mobilizing storm and field personnel to assist in power restoration efforts. The Department will provide up to twice daily Hurricane Sandy Situation Reports as appropriate once the storm hits. These reports will be available to the public and will detail the storm?s impacts and the restoration activities being taken by the energy sector. The situation reports will be located at: http://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/emergency_sit_rpt.aspx

FEMA urges those along the East Coast to monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy. Individuals in the region should continue to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and their local news for severe weather updates, warnings and watches, and follow instructions of local officials. While the exact track of the storm is uncertain, according to the National Weather Service, storm conditions associated with Hurricane Sandy may impact East Coast states throughout the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as early as tomorrow in some areas.

Everyone should familiarize themselves with the terms that are used to identify a severe weather hazard. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. The potential for heavy rains can also lead to flooding, or flash flooding in some areas. Driving through a flooded area can be extremely hazardous. Remember ? turn around, don?t drown.

More information about what to do before, during and after a disaster can also be found visiting ready.gov and listo.gov. The FEMA mobile site (http://m.fema.gov), smartphone app (http://www.fema.gov/smartphone-app), and text messages (http://www.fema.gov/text-messages) also provide regular updates. Sharing information using social media tools is also a good way for residents to stay informed. Follow FEMA online at http://blog.fema.gov, www.twitter.com/fema, www.facebook.com/fema, and www.youtube.com/fema.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.



Last Updated:
October 26, 2012 - 17:20

http://www.fema.gov/news-release/fe...al-officials-and-take-steps-prepare-hurricane
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

http://tonawanda-news.com/local/x1133191257/State-of-Emergency-declared-for-New-York
October 27, 2012
'State of Emergency' declared for New York

BY FRANK ELTMAN The Tonawanda News

Tonawanda News ? LONG BEACH ? New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency as coastal residents filled sandbags and crowded into stores for flashlights, water and other supplies Friday to prepare for the powerful storm expected to slam the region as soon as Sunday night...
Click to expand...
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

For all readers in Sandy's path, I recommend reading the following report
http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/comment.html?entrynum=242

Opening paragraph
Early Thoughts...
The upcoming storm event holds many unique characteristics that not only make the forecast difficult, but also will prove challenges for impacts along the entire eastern seaboard. Hurricane Sandy is beginning to charge due north and will continue on a similar trajectory until it begins to hook northwest. This is a very rare and perhaps unprecedented track, which will make any comparison to previous storm systems quite difficult. Given the unique jet stream structure, Sandy is actually expected to strengthen despite encountering land and losing warm core tropical characteristics. This again is very unusual; a few ensemble guidance models depict a nearly 20mb+ drop in surface pressure during this period. The track remains highly uncertain, but we can begin to narrow down the width of the cone to a narrower 200-300mi or so.

and this comment from this report

Remember, folks, this is a ?winter? Gale. This is not a tropical cyclone event.

This is not Irene.

We do not have a tropical cyclone entering unfavorable conditions.

We have a baroclinic Gale entering very favorable conditions for continued development and intenfisication.

We do not have a decaying tropical cyclone spending too much time over NC, decaying in dry air and shear, and coming in limping up the coast.

We have a steadily strengthening, poised to rapidly deepen, ?winter? Gale that is out to sea and will swing in perpendicular to the coastline.

This is a very dangerous scenario. Do not make the mistake of guessing about this system?s future using tropical forecasting knowledge or techniques.

Any posts you read or opinions you hear that speak of a dead storm due to shear and dry air are to be ENTIRELY IGNORED as they are grossly incorrect.

Please, please do not make that mistake.

Forecast models are correct, we?re going to get bombed.

Coastal flooding looks to be severe. Here in Monmouth County ? extreme flooding begins at a stage of 7.8 feet. We are seeing models of 12-13 feet. Our high tide will run DOUBLE an average day or MORE.

25-35 foot waves are not only possible but likely.

STAY OFF THE BEACHES AND SEAWALLS, PLEASE.

There is very high confidence in the extreme forecasting. There is a very very low chance that the system won?t phase properly and come in weaker and further north ? but this is to be treated as an outlier more than anything at this point.

You have to pay attention to this. In the face of all the previous busts ? you must discount them and pay attention to this.
http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/comment.html?entrynum=242
 
Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

000
WTNT33 KNHC 271159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DATA FROM NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H. A
NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
53 MPH...85 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/271159.shtml?


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 270850
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL IS FULLY ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AROUND 969 MB...
BUT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 60 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHERE RECENT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AROUND 55 KT.

WHILE A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE.
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENING DUE TO
BAROCLINIC FORCING WHILE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE.
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SANDY AGAIN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
48 HOURS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SANDY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
SANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP
NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48
HOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST
NOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 28.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 29.8N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 33.2N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 35.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 40.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 41.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 43.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/270850.shtml?
 
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