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ILI

gsgs

gsgs

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Re: ILI

Please note that the ili rates being reported by most of the UK now are effectively false.

Normally ili rates in the uk are calculated from visits/calls to a doctor. As of a couple of weeks ago residents of England no longer visit or call their local doctor for influenza like symptoms. Instead you call a special number. Calls to this number are not counted in the ili stats. By simply not counting these calls the apparent rates in England were reduced by at least 50%. Thus you probably need to more than double the rates now reported to make a valid comparison with historical data prior to 2 weeks ago.

See thread at http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2009/08/18/newsstory13631450t0.asp where this statement is made by NHS.

<i>The Scottish figures from the H1N1 situation report can no longer be compared to the figures reported by England.

“The use of the pandemic flu service in England has effectively taken a substantial proportion of H1N1 cases directly from GPs, lowering the number of estimated GP consultations for influenza like illness.”</i>
 
Re: ILI

I don't doubt there has been a real decline but that's almost certainly related to the school holidays. Schools in England and Wales do not go back for several more weeks but most Scottish schools are now back as these schools shut for the summer several weeks earlier. It will likely take until next week's stats at the very earliest before any increase in reported Scottish figures due to school resumption is reflected.

Scottish figures are now reported in far more detail at http://www.hps.scot.nhs.uk/resp/publicationsdetail.aspx?id=42271


Based on reported ili rates, Tayside in Scotland (where the national flu line does not operate) now tops the UK table with 116 per 100000 consultations.

So until we see what happens as schools go back you cannot use the current data to conclude that the UK is post-peak.

Btw, Scottish figures also decreased when the schools closed then jumped again a few weeks later. My suspicion is this jump was due to the T in the Park music festival.
 
Re: ILI

When the national flu hotline first opened there was a huge surge of calls as people figured they could just lie on the phone to get free Tamiflu "just in case" - especially to take with them on foreign vacations. This has been widely reported in the UK press.

I would suggest hospitalisation rates are probably one of the more accurate indicators now and they seem to suggest that rates in England have fallen by about a half from the peak (the misleading ili rates in your posted graph would suggest they fell to a quarter of peak) but that coincides with the school holidays.
 
Re: ILI

Is June's flu the same as July's flu or August's? Did the flu that put me in bed for 3 or 4 days change/degrade to the flu that the US college team caught and were given non asprin pain reliever for, and recommended rest and hydration? So mild that it was hardly noteable?. But practice continued.
Maybe we should go to stages. Stage one Panic. Lot of testing, weekly updates that show the rate of spread, a pretty clear picture.
Stage two starts when the stats fall below 1.0 in the increase of flu week to week. Stage 3 when ili becomes important. Stage 4, we know it still there, but events cause surges, i.e. start of school, Soccer finals, religious events..........
At stage 4 we hope that the government/nations has/have the will, to isolate communities, states, countries were the H1N1 has mutated into a major killer. To slow the progression until it degrades to a less virolent form.
In those areas of high mortality the stages begin again.
 
Re: ILI

probably the same flu - if it was flu.
Although Britain is strangle secret about publishing sequences.
So we must examine travelors with flu returning from Britain.

Virulence can change individually, it's unclear what contributes.
Probably genetics. Maybe also nutrition, immunity-status
 
Re: ILI

The short answer might be, The Eskimos have 20 names for various kinds of snow because their lives depend on it. Our lack of knowledge about the life stages of flu and what that might mean to our survival is one of many facets yet to explored. I like your effort in the stat. dept! Got to do with what you got.
 
Re: ILI

My gp said yesterday that flu isn't a problem here (Scottish Borders) at all.
But a few weeks ago my grand daughter had it, phoned NHS 24, and was told "stay home for 7 days & take panadol, you have a VIRUS !! :confused: So that explains why it's not a problem eh ? it isn't flu !
 
Re: ILI

all ILI to be reported to some central public webpage

nonregistered reporters are still allowed, but listed in an extra statistics

we have whoissick.com, but little traffic there
 
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