tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Infect Dis Model
. 2020 Jul 11;5:459-477.
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.07.001. eCollection 2020.
Predict new cases of the coronavirus 19; in Michigan, U.S.A. or other countries using Crow-AMSAA method
Yanshuo Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Statistical predictions are useful to predict events based on statistical models. The data is useful to determine outcomes based on inputs and calculations. The Crow-AMSAA method will be explored to predict new cases of Coronavirus 19 (COVID19). This method is currently used within engineering reliability design to predict failures and evaluate the reliability growth. The author intents to use this model to predict the COVID19 cases by using daily reported data from Michigan, New York City, U.S.A and other countries. The piece wise Crow-AMSAA (CA) model fits the data very well for the infected cases and deaths at different phases during the start of the COVID19 outbreak. The slope β of the Crow-AMSAA line indicates the speed of the transmission or death rate. The traditional epidemiological model is based on the exponential distribution, but the Crow-AMSAA is the Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) which can be used to modeling the complex problem like COVID19, especially when the various mitigation strategies such as social distance, isolation and locking down were implemented by the government at different places.
Keywords: COVID19; Crow-AMSAA; Deaths; Infected cases; Modeling; NHPP; Prediction.
. 2020 Jul 11;5:459-477.
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.07.001. eCollection 2020.
Predict new cases of the coronavirus 19; in Michigan, U.S.A. or other countries using Crow-AMSAA method
Yanshuo Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32743124
- PMCID: PMC7378702
- DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.07.001
Abstract
Statistical predictions are useful to predict events based on statistical models. The data is useful to determine outcomes based on inputs and calculations. The Crow-AMSAA method will be explored to predict new cases of Coronavirus 19 (COVID19). This method is currently used within engineering reliability design to predict failures and evaluate the reliability growth. The author intents to use this model to predict the COVID19 cases by using daily reported data from Michigan, New York City, U.S.A and other countries. The piece wise Crow-AMSAA (CA) model fits the data very well for the infected cases and deaths at different phases during the start of the COVID19 outbreak. The slope β of the Crow-AMSAA line indicates the speed of the transmission or death rate. The traditional epidemiological model is based on the exponential distribution, but the Crow-AMSAA is the Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) which can be used to modeling the complex problem like COVID19, especially when the various mitigation strategies such as social distance, isolation and locking down were implemented by the government at different places.
Keywords: COVID19; Crow-AMSAA; Deaths; Infected cases; Modeling; NHPP; Prediction.