tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Innovation (N Y)
. 2020 Sep 21;100047.
doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100047. Online ahead of print.
Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States
Donghai Liang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Liuhua Shi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingxuan Zhao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Pengfei Liu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jeremy A Sarnat[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Song Gao[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Joel Schwartz[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yang Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Stefanie T Ebelt[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Noah Scovronick[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Howard H Chang[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 600,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.
Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO[SUB]2[/SUB], PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] and O[SUB]3[/SUB] and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, population density, sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity, behavioral risk factors, and meteorology.
Results: 3,659,828 COVID-19 cases and 138,552 deaths were reported in 3,076 US counties from January 22, 2020 to July 17, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 3.8%. County-level average NO[SUB]2[/SUB] concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models. When adjusted for co-pollutants, per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO[SUB]2[/SUB] (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 11.3% (95% CI 4.9% to 18.2%) and 16.2% (95% CI 8.7% to 24.0%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between COVID-19 case-fatality rate and long-term exposure to PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] or O[SUB]3[/SUB], although per IQR increase in PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] (2.6 ug/m[SUP]3[/SUP]) was marginally associated with 14.9% (95% CI: 0.0% to 31.9%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate when adjusted for co-pollutants.
Discussion: Long-term exposure to NO[SUB]2[/SUB], which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] and O[SUB]3[/SUB] exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO[SUB]2[/SUB] levels. Continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality.
Keywords: Air pollution; COVID-19; Case-fatality rate; Mortality; Nitrogen dioxide.
. 2020 Sep 21;100047.
doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100047. Online ahead of print.
Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States
Donghai Liang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Liuhua Shi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingxuan Zhao[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Pengfei Liu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jeremy A Sarnat[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Song Gao[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Joel Schwartz[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yang Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Stefanie T Ebelt[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Noah Scovronick[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Howard H Chang[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32984861
- PMCID: PMC7505160
- DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100047
Abstract
Background: The novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 600,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.
Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO[SUB]2[/SUB], PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] and O[SUB]3[/SUB] and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, population density, sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity, behavioral risk factors, and meteorology.
Results: 3,659,828 COVID-19 cases and 138,552 deaths were reported in 3,076 US counties from January 22, 2020 to July 17, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 3.8%. County-level average NO[SUB]2[/SUB] concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models. When adjusted for co-pollutants, per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO[SUB]2[/SUB] (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 11.3% (95% CI 4.9% to 18.2%) and 16.2% (95% CI 8.7% to 24.0%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between COVID-19 case-fatality rate and long-term exposure to PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] or O[SUB]3[/SUB], although per IQR increase in PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] (2.6 ug/m[SUP]3[/SUP]) was marginally associated with 14.9% (95% CI: 0.0% to 31.9%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate when adjusted for co-pollutants.
Discussion: Long-term exposure to NO[SUB]2[/SUB], which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] and O[SUB]3[/SUB] exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO[SUB]2[/SUB] levels. Continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality.
Keywords: Air pollution; COVID-19; Case-fatality rate; Mortality; Nitrogen dioxide.