tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Environ Res Public Health
. 2020 Sep 25;17(19):E7016.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17197016.
An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
Bader S Al-Anzi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohammad Alenizi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jehad Al Dallal[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Frage Lhadi Abookleesh[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Aman Ullah[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
This study is an overview of the current and future trajectory, as well as the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world and selected countries including the state of Kuwait. The selected countries were divided into two groups: Group A (China, Switzerland, and Ireland) and Group B (USA, Brazil, and India) based on their outbreak containment of this virus. Then, the actual data for each country were fitted to a regression model utilizing the excel solver software to assess the current and future trajectory of novel COVID-19 and its impact. In addition, the data were fitted using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model. The Group A trajectory showed an "S" shape trend that suited a logistic function with r[SUP]2[/SUP] > 0.97, which is an indication of the outbreak control. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they passed the expected 99% end of pandemic dates. Group B, however, exhibited a continuous increase of the total COVID-19 new cases, that best suited an exponential growth model with r[SUP]2[/SUP] > 0.97, which meant that the outbreak is still uncontrolled. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they are still relatively far away from reaching the expected 97% end of pandemic dates. The maximum death percentage varied from 3.3% (India) to 7.2% with USA recording the highest death percentage, which is virtually equal to the maximum death percentage of the world (7.3%). The power of the exponential model determines the severity of the country's trajectory that ranged from 11 to 19 with the USA and Brazil having the highest values. The maximum impact of this COVID-19 pandemic occurred during the uncontrolled stage (2), which mainly depended on the deceptive stage (1). Further, some novel potential containment strategies are discussed. Results from both models showed that the Group A countries contained the outbreak, whereas the Group B countries still have not reached this stage yet. Early measures and containment strategies are imperative in suppressing the spread of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; containment strategies; death percentage; exponential model; polynomial model; trajectory.
. 2020 Sep 25;17(19):E7016.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17197016.
An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
Bader S Al-Anzi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohammad Alenizi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jehad Al Dallal[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Frage Lhadi Abookleesh[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Aman Ullah[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32992809
- DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17197016
Abstract
This study is an overview of the current and future trajectory, as well as the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world and selected countries including the state of Kuwait. The selected countries were divided into two groups: Group A (China, Switzerland, and Ireland) and Group B (USA, Brazil, and India) based on their outbreak containment of this virus. Then, the actual data for each country were fitted to a regression model utilizing the excel solver software to assess the current and future trajectory of novel COVID-19 and its impact. In addition, the data were fitted using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model. The Group A trajectory showed an "S" shape trend that suited a logistic function with r[SUP]2[/SUP] > 0.97, which is an indication of the outbreak control. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they passed the expected 99% end of pandemic dates. Group B, however, exhibited a continuous increase of the total COVID-19 new cases, that best suited an exponential growth model with r[SUP]2[/SUP] > 0.97, which meant that the outbreak is still uncontrolled. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they are still relatively far away from reaching the expected 97% end of pandemic dates. The maximum death percentage varied from 3.3% (India) to 7.2% with USA recording the highest death percentage, which is virtually equal to the maximum death percentage of the world (7.3%). The power of the exponential model determines the severity of the country's trajectory that ranged from 11 to 19 with the USA and Brazil having the highest values. The maximum impact of this COVID-19 pandemic occurred during the uncontrolled stage (2), which mainly depended on the deceptive stage (1). Further, some novel potential containment strategies are discussed. Results from both models showed that the Group A countries contained the outbreak, whereas the Group B countries still have not reached this stage yet. Early measures and containment strategies are imperative in suppressing the spread of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; containment strategies; death percentage; exponential model; polynomial model; trajectory.