tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Infect Dis
. 2020 Jun 1;S1201-9712(20)30398-2.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.091. Online ahead of print.
Effect of the Wet Market on the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Transmission Dynamics in China, 2019-2020
Kenji Mizumoto[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Katsushi Kagaya[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Gerardo Chowell[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objectives: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) originating from Wuhan rapidly spread throughout China. While its origin remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market for the early SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated.
Methods: Using the daily series of COVID-19 incidence stratified according to contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers (R) for the market-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the reporting probability and the early effects of public health interventions.
Results: We estimated R at 0.24 (95%CrI: 0.01-1.38) for market-to-human transmission, and 2.37 (95%CrI: 2.08-2.71) for human-to-human transmission during the early spread in China (2019-2020). Moreover, we estimated that the reporting rate for cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 2-34 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying COVID-19 cases.
Conclusions: Our R estimate tied to market-to-human transmission has substantial uncertainty, but it was significantly lower compared to the reproduction number driving human-to-human transmission. Our results also suggest that asymptomatic and subclinical infections constitute a substantial component of the COVID-19 morbidity burden.
Keywords: Corona virus; Epidemic; Market hazard; Transmission.
. 2020 Jun 1;S1201-9712(20)30398-2.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.091. Online ahead of print.
Effect of the Wet Market on the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Transmission Dynamics in China, 2019-2020
Kenji Mizumoto[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Katsushi Kagaya[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Gerardo Chowell[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32497812
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.091
Abstract
Objectives: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) originating from Wuhan rapidly spread throughout China. While its origin remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market for the early SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated.
Methods: Using the daily series of COVID-19 incidence stratified according to contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers (R) for the market-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the reporting probability and the early effects of public health interventions.
Results: We estimated R at 0.24 (95%CrI: 0.01-1.38) for market-to-human transmission, and 2.37 (95%CrI: 2.08-2.71) for human-to-human transmission during the early spread in China (2019-2020). Moreover, we estimated that the reporting rate for cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 2-34 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying COVID-19 cases.
Conclusions: Our R estimate tied to market-to-human transmission has substantial uncertainty, but it was significantly lower compared to the reproduction number driving human-to-human transmission. Our results also suggest that asymptomatic and subclinical infections constitute a substantial component of the COVID-19 morbidity burden.
Keywords: Corona virus; Epidemic; Market hazard; Transmission.