tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr 22. pii: S1201-9712(20)30259-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044. [Epub ahead of print]
Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020.
Zhuang Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhao S[SUP]2[/SUP], Lin Q[SUP]3[/SUP], Cao P[SUP]4[/SUP], Lou Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Yang L[SUP]5[/SUP], Yang S[SUP]6[/SUP], He D[SUP]7[/SUP], Xiao L[SUP]8[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and Italy has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R[SUB]0[/SUB] as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020.
Copyright ? 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
KEYWORDS:
Coronavirus disease 2019; Italy; Republic of Korea; The basic reproduction number
PMID:32334115DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044
Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020.
Zhuang Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhao S[SUP]2[/SUP], Lin Q[SUP]3[/SUP], Cao P[SUP]4[/SUP], Lou Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Yang L[SUP]5[/SUP], Yang S[SUP]6[/SUP], He D[SUP]7[/SUP], Xiao L[SUP]8[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and Italy has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R[SUB]0[/SUB] as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020.
Copyright ? 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
KEYWORDS:
Coronavirus disease 2019; Italy; Republic of Korea; The basic reproduction number
PMID:32334115DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044