Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Does anyone know the answer to this question?
Does anyone know the answer to this question?
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Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
- Thread starter Laidback Al
- Start date
jflorida
Well-known member
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I think thats true Emily. None I have seen reported but I have read about some testing problems(?) and it seems people were not tested unless they were really sick - so later in infection.
If that poultry indeed it, as it is looking - People eat a lot of poultry these days in many countries. Birds are everywhere. I imagine the outside of eggs also, for sure, could be contaminated as well.
I think thats true Emily. None I have seen reported but I have read about some testing problems(?) and it seems people were not tested unless they were really sick - so later in infection.
If that poultry indeed it, as it is looking - People eat a lot of poultry these days in many countries. Birds are everywhere. I imagine the outside of eggs also, for sure, could be contaminated as well.
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
The most recent two cases confirmed today became ill on the 28th & 29th of March. The 4 yo boy developed fever on March 31st. I haven't seen any onsets later than that.
The most recent two cases confirmed today became ill on the 28th & 29th of March. The 4 yo boy developed fever on March 31st. I haven't seen any onsets later than that.
JimO
Well-known member
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I hope this is true, but I would not be surprised if the release of information out of China slows to a trickle now that they have the bloggers under control. I just don't trust them to release any more information than they absolutely have to in order to project some thin perception of credibility to the world health community. I'll feel better if we get to the end of April and there are no cases outside mainland China.
Shiloh pointed out that there are political forces at work between the US and China due to the unstable situation with North Korea. So, if the Chinese want to keep information to themselves, it appears, based on the CDC press conference yesterday, that we will happily accomodate them.
Meanwhile, despite this being characterized as isolated cases with no H2H transmission, the following actions have been taken:
I hope this is true, but I would not be surprised if the release of information out of China slows to a trickle now that they have the bloggers under control. I just don't trust them to release any more information than they absolutely have to in order to project some thin perception of credibility to the world health community. I'll feel better if we get to the end of April and there are no cases outside mainland China.
Shiloh pointed out that there are political forces at work between the US and China due to the unstable situation with North Korea. So, if the Chinese want to keep information to themselves, it appears, based on the CDC press conference yesterday, that we will happily accomodate them.
Meanwhile, despite this being characterized as isolated cases with no H2H transmission, the following actions have been taken:
- CDC quickly issued guidance to medical professionals in the US regarding what to look for and how to treat potential H7N9 cases - including the use of antivirals at the onset of symptoms without waiting for test results.
- CDC has already begun work developing a vaccine.
- China, in an unprecidented move, released sequences from the first cases (perhaps to get help developing a vaccine) in a very timely manner.
- Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia (and maybe others) have each implemented some kind of surveillance program out of concern over potential spread of the virus.
- Bejing reversed a decision yesterday and implemented an H7N9 emergency control plan, which I'm sure is no small effort, despite claiming there were no cases reported there.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I do not believe anything that China says.
I just want to be clear on that issue.
I have been following and documenting disease patterns in China for 7 years and I know that they under-report.
I also do not support the various official statements from various governments about how great the Chinese government is for sharing the H7N9 isolates in such a rapid manner. I feel that this situation has been developing for some time and no such isolates were offered earlier before the news broke wide open last week.
Besides, why should we praise any government for sharing isolates? Isn't this the humanitarian thing to do?
I do not want this thread to turn into a China "bash" thread but I thought I should state my opinion based on my experiences for 7 years.
Thanks to all of you on all the sites and in the "real" world for helping to lessen suffering.
We at FluTrackers remain committed to be driven by the facts to ascertain the truth.
Thanks for staying with us.
:tiphat:
p.s. I also want to add that I personally have never taken 1 penny from the Chinese government, nor has FluTrackers. With China's growing financial prominence in the public health arena how many public health related individuals and/or groups can say that?
I do not believe anything that China says.
I just want to be clear on that issue.
I have been following and documenting disease patterns in China for 7 years and I know that they under-report.
I also do not support the various official statements from various governments about how great the Chinese government is for sharing the H7N9 isolates in such a rapid manner. I feel that this situation has been developing for some time and no such isolates were offered earlier before the news broke wide open last week.
Besides, why should we praise any government for sharing isolates? Isn't this the humanitarian thing to do?
I do not want this thread to turn into a China "bash" thread but I thought I should state my opinion based on my experiences for 7 years.
Thanks to all of you on all the sites and in the "real" world for helping to lessen suffering.
We at FluTrackers remain committed to be driven by the facts to ascertain the truth.
Thanks for staying with us.
:tiphat:
p.s. I also want to add that I personally have never taken 1 penny from the Chinese government, nor has FluTrackers. With China's growing financial prominence in the public health arena how many public health related individuals and/or groups can say that?
NS1
Well-known member
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
The environmental temperature will have little effect on a transitional Influenza virus. Recall the pH1N1 operating with vigour throughout the summer of 2009.
The environmental temperature will have little effect on a transitional Influenza virus. Recall the pH1N1 operating with vigour throughout the summer of 2009.
jflorida
Well-known member
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Even though some species seem to be weathering it well I wouldn't assume all birds will be asymptomatic. I also wouldn't assume all reports are real (or not):
Posted today (also another gold level translation) :
The Witnesses said Nanjing Sparrow death follows dumplings, like falling from a tree [ http://translate.googleusercontent....07.htm&usg=ALkJrhgZ7tNNeInUGL-xG2Y5hQwAE2sUTA ]
Yesterday, an "unnatural deaths" dozens of sparrows Billiton Park, Jianye District, Nanjing microblogging online crazy turn. But when the Modern Express ( microblogging ) Reporter arrived, Jianye District Tea Southern district Billiton Park between 11 and 12 on the ground clean, not a sparrow Hair. Nearby residents would rather Bypass, is not willing to walk from here. "Dead dozens of sparrows, who know not avian flu." Said a district residents. Currently, relevant departments have been sampled, is under investigation.
In a linked Q &A I also noticed what I thought was unusual advice :
The recommended prevention, try not to touch these birds, is not going to amuse them. If you come into contact with birds or their droppings, and to pay attention to your hands thoroughly with disinfectant and water. The avian flu virus does not heat. Sulfate, are very sensitive to ultraviolet radiation, mercury, chlorine and other commonly used disinfectants. Pay attention to the life of appliances disinfected. Poultry sickness and death situation, you should contact the local agricultural sector.
I checked and they do indeed still use mercury bichloride to disinfect surfaces and also mercuric compounds are still used in traditional medicine in China (and are available in some OTC treatments in the US).
Mercury: Element of the Ancients [ http://www.dartmouth.edu/~toxmetal/mercury/history.html ]
The line between alchemy and medicine was not always clear. In 2nd century China, the study of mercury centered on a search for an elixir of life to confer longevity or immortality. The prominent Chinese alchemist Ko Hung, who lived in the 4th century, believed that man is what he eats, and so by eating gold he could attain perfection. Yet, he reasoned, a true believer was likely to be poor, and so it was necessary to find a substitute for the precious metal. This, in his estimation, could be accomplished by making gold from cinnabar. Ko Hung's other uses for cinnabar included smearing it on the feet to enable a person to walk on water, placing it over a doorway to ward off thieves, and combining it with raspberry juice to enable elderly men to beget children.
Even though some species seem to be weathering it well I wouldn't assume all birds will be asymptomatic. I also wouldn't assume all reports are real (or not):
Posted today (also another gold level translation) :
The Witnesses said Nanjing Sparrow death follows dumplings, like falling from a tree [ http://translate.googleusercontent....07.htm&usg=ALkJrhgZ7tNNeInUGL-xG2Y5hQwAE2sUTA ]
Yesterday, an "unnatural deaths" dozens of sparrows Billiton Park, Jianye District, Nanjing microblogging online crazy turn. But when the Modern Express ( microblogging ) Reporter arrived, Jianye District Tea Southern district Billiton Park between 11 and 12 on the ground clean, not a sparrow Hair. Nearby residents would rather Bypass, is not willing to walk from here. "Dead dozens of sparrows, who know not avian flu." Said a district residents. Currently, relevant departments have been sampled, is under investigation.
In a linked Q &A I also noticed what I thought was unusual advice :
The recommended prevention, try not to touch these birds, is not going to amuse them. If you come into contact with birds or their droppings, and to pay attention to your hands thoroughly with disinfectant and water. The avian flu virus does not heat. Sulfate, are very sensitive to ultraviolet radiation, mercury, chlorine and other commonly used disinfectants. Pay attention to the life of appliances disinfected. Poultry sickness and death situation, you should contact the local agricultural sector.
I checked and they do indeed still use mercury bichloride to disinfect surfaces and also mercuric compounds are still used in traditional medicine in China (and are available in some OTC treatments in the US).
Mercury: Element of the Ancients [ http://www.dartmouth.edu/~toxmetal/mercury/history.html ]
The line between alchemy and medicine was not always clear. In 2nd century China, the study of mercury centered on a search for an elixir of life to confer longevity or immortality. The prominent Chinese alchemist Ko Hung, who lived in the 4th century, believed that man is what he eats, and so by eating gold he could attain perfection. Yet, he reasoned, a true believer was likely to be poor, and so it was necessary to find a substitute for the precious metal. This, in his estimation, could be accomplished by making gold from cinnabar. Ko Hung's other uses for cinnabar included smearing it on the feet to enable a person to walk on water, placing it over a doorway to ward off thieves, and combining it with raspberry juice to enable elderly men to beget children.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
A/quail/Nanchang/12-340/2000,2000//,H1N1
but this is the only example that I have --> very rare
----------------------------
also
A/quail/QC/FAV-10/2008/05/09/H3N2
QC=Quebec,Canada (?)
so maybe quail can catch it from humans occasionally
American turkeys from swine, also turkeys with novel mexican pandemic H1N1
A/quail/Nanchang/12-340/2000,2000//,H1N1
but this is the only example that I have --> very rare
----------------------------
also
A/quail/QC/FAV-10/2008/05/09/H3N2
QC=Quebec,Canada (?)
so maybe quail can catch it from humans occasionally
American turkeys from swine, also turkeys with novel mexican pandemic H1N1
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Quail are intermediaries, due to their dual receptors for avian and humans.
See: Quail carry sialic acid receptors compatible with binding of avian and human influenza viruses
THere were some large quail die offs during the early HP H5N1 days. Here's a report of almost 15,000 quails dying of AI: http://www.oie.int/downld/AVIAN%20INFLUENZA/Thailand%20Follow-up%20Report%20No61.pdf
Another interesting article about quail: Role of Quail in the Interspecies Transmission of H9 Influenza A Viruses: Molecular Changes on HA That Correspond to Adaptation from Ducks to Chickens
an interesting piece of quail trivia: "......infected quail have a longer disease period than do chickens and thus are more likely to transmit the virus....." .
.
Quail are intermediaries, due to their dual receptors for avian and humans.
See: Quail carry sialic acid receptors compatible with binding of avian and human influenza viruses
THere were some large quail die offs during the early HP H5N1 days. Here's a report of almost 15,000 quails dying of AI: http://www.oie.int/downld/AVIAN%20INFLUENZA/Thailand%20Follow-up%20Report%20No61.pdf
Another interesting article about quail: Role of Quail in the Interspecies Transmission of H9 Influenza A Viruses: Molecular Changes on HA That Correspond to Adaptation from Ducks to Chickens
an interesting piece of quail trivia: "......infected quail have a longer disease period than do chickens and thus are more likely to transmit the virus....." .
.
Last edited:
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I agree that it does not look like sustained h2h
But lets keep in mind that there is a public holiday - monday we will know more
I agree that it does not look like sustained h2h
But lets keep in mind that there is a public holiday - monday we will know more
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Genetic evolution of low pathogenecity H9N2 Avian influenza viruses in Tunisia: acquisition of new mutations
This paper reviews the imporant H9N2 mutations and table 5 and table 6 show the actual locations to be monitored in the internal segments (said to be similar to those in 2013 H7N9 human).
.
Genetic evolution of low pathogenecity H9N2 Avian influenza viruses in Tunisia: acquisition of new mutations
This paper reviews the imporant H9N2 mutations and table 5 and table 6 show the actual locations to be monitored in the internal segments (said to be similar to those in 2013 H7N9 human).
.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
http://afludiary.blogspot.de/2011/09/bangladesh-to-share-h9n2-bird-flu-virus.html
A/Bangladesh/0994/2011 (H9N2).
is not at genbank
I have a East China ~2010 H9N2 index related to this H7N9
2010 was probably somehow a bottleneck for that strain.
(~30 viruses from genbank)
I think all these related H9N2 should be compared to that index.
Maybe I can post it later today. segments 4,6 are still missing
http://afludiary.blogspot.de/2011/09/bangladesh-to-share-h9n2-bird-flu-virus.html
A/Bangladesh/0994/2011 (H9N2).
is not at genbank
I have a East China ~2010 H9N2 index related to this H7N9
2010 was probably somehow a bottleneck for that strain.
(~30 viruses from genbank)
I think all these related H9N2 should be compared to that index.
Maybe I can post it later today. segments 4,6 are still missing
JimO
Well-known member
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
This is only true if we believe that the Chinese government is telling the truth regarding the actual number of cases and whether the contacts really are asymptomatic. I have my doubts.
This is only true if we believe that the Chinese government is telling the truth regarding the actual number of cases and whether the contacts really are asymptomatic. I have my doubts.
jflorida
Well-known member
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I dont know, I think here, as a response to past criticism perhaps, they are being exceedingly open.
Anyway the form this next account and the use fo the term "wild poultry" I am wondering if this didnt originate somewhere else and if there is yet to be a cluster in people and/or animals, perhaps older, to be revealed in another region.
Bilingual: Jiangsu four cases of the H7N9 avian flu across the country have 2 deaths [ http://edu.qq.com/a/20130407/000100.htm ]
And Jiangsu Province, four cases of close contact with hundreds of people has not been found to have a fever or respiratory symptoms. Hundreds of people who have had close contact with the patients have not, as yet, developed fever or respiratory symptoms.
Ping Zijian, said the investigation in order to determine if the virus roots, identity background and living environment of the existing cases. He also adds, "The virus comes from pigs or other animals is unknown."
To determine the source of the virus, the identities, background and living conditions of existing patients will be investigated, Feng said. "It's unclear if the virus originated in pigs or other animals," he added.
The official said the poultry and pork in circulation in the local market is safe, but it is recommended that members of the public do not eat wild poultry.
Officials said poultry and pork for sale at local markets are safe, but people are urged not to eat wild poultry.
It is the first time the H7N9 bird flu virus has been found in humans, although three other strainsin the H7 family - H7N2, H7N3 and H7N7 - have previously been found in humans, but therewere no casualties.
I dont know, I think here, as a response to past criticism perhaps, they are being exceedingly open.
Anyway the form this next account and the use fo the term "wild poultry" I am wondering if this didnt originate somewhere else and if there is yet to be a cluster in people and/or animals, perhaps older, to be revealed in another region.
Bilingual: Jiangsu four cases of the H7N9 avian flu across the country have 2 deaths [ http://edu.qq.com/a/20130407/000100.htm ]
And Jiangsu Province, four cases of close contact with hundreds of people has not been found to have a fever or respiratory symptoms. Hundreds of people who have had close contact with the patients have not, as yet, developed fever or respiratory symptoms.
Ping Zijian, said the investigation in order to determine if the virus roots, identity background and living environment of the existing cases. He also adds, "The virus comes from pigs or other animals is unknown."
To determine the source of the virus, the identities, background and living conditions of existing patients will be investigated, Feng said. "It's unclear if the virus originated in pigs or other animals," he added.
The official said the poultry and pork in circulation in the local market is safe, but it is recommended that members of the public do not eat wild poultry.
Officials said poultry and pork for sale at local markets are safe, but people are urged not to eat wild poultry.
It is the first time the H7N9 bird flu virus has been found in humans, although three other strainsin the H7 family - H7N2, H7N3 and H7N7 - have previously been found in humans, but therewere no casualties.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
It is very odd that no healthcare workers have been reported as infected. This casts doubt on their entire story.
What are the chances that zero health care workers have been infected especially in the early weeks when there was no diagnosis, isolation, containment...?
Last week the Ministry of Agriculture changed their position. Now - what do you know? Poultry, pigeons, possibly other animals, carry H7N9.
So after at least 8 weeks of human infections - now - they are instituting animal control and remediation procedures.
I would not believe them even if they admitted to human-to-human transmission. I want to see proof of that, too, with my own eyes.
We know the avian influenza routine. We know what "normal" government response is from watching Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, and China.
We know what the disease progression of avian influenza is in an outbreak situation. We have watched this for many years.
So China - listen up! - we are watching and we know what to look for.
It is very odd that no healthcare workers have been reported as infected. This casts doubt on their entire story.
What are the chances that zero health care workers have been infected especially in the early weeks when there was no diagnosis, isolation, containment...?
Last week the Ministry of Agriculture changed their position. Now - what do you know? Poultry, pigeons, possibly other animals, carry H7N9.
So after at least 8 weeks of human infections - now - they are instituting animal control and remediation procedures.
I would not believe them even if they admitted to human-to-human transmission. I want to see proof of that, too, with my own eyes.
We know the avian influenza routine. We know what "normal" government response is from watching Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, and China.
We know what the disease progression of avian influenza is in an outbreak situation. We have watched this for many years.
So China - listen up! - we are watching and we know what to look for.