tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Environ Public Health
. 2020 Jun 2;2020:9769267.
doi: 10.1155/2020/9769267. eCollection 2020.
Simulation of the Final Size of the Evolution Curve of Coronavirus Epidemic in Morocco Using the SIR Model
Ousama Ifguis[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohamed El Ghozlani[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Fouzia Ammou[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Abdelaziz Moutcine[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zeroual Abdellah[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Since the epidemic of COVID-19 was declared in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, and other parts of the world, several studies have been carried out over several regions to observe the development of the epidemic, to predict its duration, and to estimate its final size, using complex models such as the SEIR model or the simpler ones such as the SIR model. These studies showed that the SIR model is much more efficient than the SEIR model; therefore, we are applying this model in the Kingdom of Morocco since the appearance of the first case on 2 March 2020, with the objective of predicting the final size of the epidemic.
. 2020 Jun 2;2020:9769267.
doi: 10.1155/2020/9769267. eCollection 2020.
Simulation of the Final Size of the Evolution Curve of Coronavirus Epidemic in Morocco Using the SIR Model
Ousama Ifguis[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohamed El Ghozlani[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Fouzia Ammou[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Abdelaziz Moutcine[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zeroual Abdellah[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32565842
- PMCID: PMC7265685
- DOI: 10.1155/2020/9769267
Abstract
Since the epidemic of COVID-19 was declared in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, and other parts of the world, several studies have been carried out over several regions to observe the development of the epidemic, to predict its duration, and to estimate its final size, using complex models such as the SEIR model or the simpler ones such as the SIR model. These studies showed that the SIR model is much more efficient than the SEIR model; therefore, we are applying this model in the Kingdom of Morocco since the appearance of the first case on 2 March 2020, with the objective of predicting the final size of the epidemic.