tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Infect Public Health
. 2022 Feb 4;15(3):338-342.
doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.01.020. Online ahead of print.
Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19 pandemic
Jingzhi Lou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hong Zheng[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shi Zhao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lirong Cao[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Eliza Ly Wong[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zigui Chen[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Renee Wy Chan[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Marc Kc Chong[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Benny Cy Zee[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Paul Ks Chan[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Eng-Kiong Yeoh[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Maggie H Wang[SUP] 12 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health threat. This study aims to evaluate the effect of virus mutation activities and policy interventions on COVID-19 transmissibility in Hong Kong.
Methods: In this study, we integrated the genetic activities of multiple proteins, and quantified the effect of government interventions and mutation activities against the time-varying effective reproduction number R[SUB]t[/SUB].
Findings: We found a significantly positive relationship between R[SUB]t[/SUB] and mutation activities and a significantly negative relationship between R[SUB]t[/SUB] and government interventions. The results showed that the mutations that contributed most to the increase of R[SUB]t[/SUB] were from the spike, nucleocapsid and ORF1b genes. Policy of prohibition on group gathering was estimated to have the largest impact on mitigating virus transmissibility. The model explained 63.2% of the R[SUB]t[/SUB] variability with the R[SUP]2[/SUP].
Conclusion: Our study provided a convenient framework to estimate the effect of genetic contribution and government interventions on pathogen transmissibility. We showed that the S, N and ORF1b protein had significant contribution to the increase of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong, while restrictions of public gathering and suspension of face-to-face class are the most effective government interventions strategies.
Keywords: G-measure; Government interventions; SARS-CoV-2; Virus activities.
. 2022 Feb 4;15(3):338-342.
doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.01.020. Online ahead of print.
Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19 pandemic
Jingzhi Lou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hong Zheng[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shi Zhao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lirong Cao[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Eliza Ly Wong[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zigui Chen[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Renee Wy Chan[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Marc Kc Chong[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Benny Cy Zee[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Paul Ks Chan[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Eng-Kiong Yeoh[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Maggie H Wang[SUP] 12 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35167995
- DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.01.020
Abstract
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health threat. This study aims to evaluate the effect of virus mutation activities and policy interventions on COVID-19 transmissibility in Hong Kong.
Methods: In this study, we integrated the genetic activities of multiple proteins, and quantified the effect of government interventions and mutation activities against the time-varying effective reproduction number R[SUB]t[/SUB].
Findings: We found a significantly positive relationship between R[SUB]t[/SUB] and mutation activities and a significantly negative relationship between R[SUB]t[/SUB] and government interventions. The results showed that the mutations that contributed most to the increase of R[SUB]t[/SUB] were from the spike, nucleocapsid and ORF1b genes. Policy of prohibition on group gathering was estimated to have the largest impact on mitigating virus transmissibility. The model explained 63.2% of the R[SUB]t[/SUB] variability with the R[SUP]2[/SUP].
Conclusion: Our study provided a convenient framework to estimate the effect of genetic contribution and government interventions on pathogen transmissibility. We showed that the S, N and ORF1b protein had significant contribution to the increase of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong, while restrictions of public gathering and suspension of face-to-face class are the most effective government interventions strategies.
Keywords: G-measure; Government interventions; SARS-CoV-2; Virus activities.