tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Int Med Res
. 2020 Jun;48(6):300060520931298.
doi: 10.1177/0300060520931298.
Mortality Statistics in England and Wales: The SARS-CoV-2 Paradox
Gabrielle Harrison[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Daniel Newport[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Tim Robbins[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Theodoros N Arvanitis[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Andrew Stein[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objective: To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality.
Methods: Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates.
Results: During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the "SARS-CoV-2 paradox." We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data.
Conclusions: Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; United Kingdom; mortality rate; paradox; respiratory disease.
. 2020 Jun;48(6):300060520931298.
doi: 10.1177/0300060520931298.
Mortality Statistics in England and Wales: The SARS-CoV-2 Paradox
Gabrielle Harrison[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Daniel Newport[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Tim Robbins[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Theodoros N Arvanitis[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Andrew Stein[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32564639
- DOI: 10.1177/0300060520931298
Abstract
Objective: To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality.
Methods: Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates.
Results: During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the "SARS-CoV-2 paradox." We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data.
Conclusions: Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; United Kingdom; mortality rate; paradox; respiratory disease.