tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol. 2020 Apr 24.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.25939. Online ahead of print.
Estimating the Effects of Asymptomatic and Imported Patients on COVID-19 Epidemic Using Mathematical Modeling
Tingzhe Sun[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Dan Weng[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The epidemic of COVID-19 has been a serious threat to public health worldwide. Data from January 23 to March 31 at Jiangsu and Anhui provinces in China were collected. We developed an adjusted model with two novel features: the asymptomatic population and threshold behavior in recovery. Unbiased parameter estimation identified faithful model fitting. Our model predicted that the epidemic for asymptomatic patients was similar in both provinces. The latent periods and outbreak sizes are extremely sensitive to strongly controlled interventions such as isolation and quarantine for both asymptomatic and imported cases. We predicted that asymptomatic patients serve as a more severe factor with faster outbreaks and larger outbreak sizes compared with imported patients. Therefore, we argued that the currently strict interventions should be continuously implemented and unraveling the asymptomatic pool is critically important before preventive strategy such as vaccines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.25939. Online ahead of print.
Estimating the Effects of Asymptomatic and Imported Patients on COVID-19 Epidemic Using Mathematical Modeling
Tingzhe Sun[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Dan Weng[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32330299
- DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25939
Abstract
The epidemic of COVID-19 has been a serious threat to public health worldwide. Data from January 23 to March 31 at Jiangsu and Anhui provinces in China were collected. We developed an adjusted model with two novel features: the asymptomatic population and threshold behavior in recovery. Unbiased parameter estimation identified faithful model fitting. Our model predicted that the epidemic for asymptomatic patients was similar in both provinces. The latent periods and outbreak sizes are extremely sensitive to strongly controlled interventions such as isolation and quarantine for both asymptomatic and imported cases. We predicted that asymptomatic patients serve as a more severe factor with faster outbreaks and larger outbreak sizes compared with imported patients. Therefore, we argued that the currently strict interventions should be continuously implemented and unraveling the asymptomatic pool is critically important before preventive strategy such as vaccines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.