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Japan : H3N2 reassortment fatalites or drift variant?

camster

Resident
AKITA, JAPAN (BNO NEWS) -- Six elderly people have died and dozens more are ill from a suspected outbreak of Hong Kong flu at a hospital in northwestern Japan, according to a local news report on Saturday.

The Kyodo news agency reported that six people - four men in their 60s to 90s and two women in their 70s and 80s - have died between Sunday and Friday at a hospital in Kitaakita, in Akita Prefecture. They tested positive in simple flu test.

snip

Source:
http://wireupdate.com/wires/12059/six-die-at-japanese-hospital-from-suspected-hong-kong-flu/
 
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Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

Thanks Sharon.
I did a quick, although obviously faulty search, before posting. Glad to see the group is way ahead of me ;)

--camster
 
Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

If the virus involved is a seasonal strain type A, subtype H3N2, we will have to face with a drift variant rather than a 'reassortant' that may imply an inter- (or hetero-) subtypic reassortment event, at least for a mean reader not used to virology words.
 
Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

If the virus involved is a seasonal strain type A, subtype H3N2, we will have to face with a drift variant rather than a 'reassortant' that may imply an inter- (or hetero-) subtypic reassortment event, at least for a mean reader not used to virology words.

Unfortunately there is not enough data in the articles to fully understand what is going on here. I would be very surprised if a virus from 1968 managed to resurrect itself without a little help (i.e. a leak somewhere). So this is likely to be a drift variant.

--camster
 
Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

I too am confused by the word "reassortant" in the thread title. While this might be a new drift variant of H3N2 (and even that seems far from certain to me at this point - I have seen no evidence that this isn't siply seasonal H3N2 and the vaccine failed because it was administered too late), there seems to be no evidence for a reassortment event.

IMO, much of the media is getting sloppy and referring to this as "Hong Kong" flu simply because the 1968 pandemic and this outbreak are both H3N2 influenza. It seems exceedingly unlikely that this outbreak is due to the 1968 virus. This may very well just be an institutional outbreak of seasonal influenza, especially in light of the ages involved and the fact that all of the deceased were suffering dementia.
 
Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

Re: H3N2 reassortant fatalities: Japan

............. This may very well just be an institutional outbreak of seasonal influenza, especially in light of the ages involved and the fact that all of the deceased were suffering dementia.

Elderly People With Influenza and Dementia More Likely to Die

(snipped)

Rapid Diagnosis "Critical"

Rapid diagnosis and treatment of influenza in elderly people is critical because delays can trigger the development of secondary pneumonia, she said. Elderly people with dementia are particularly vulnerable to complications from common respiratory infections because of difficulties in communicating their symptoms, poor oral hygiene, and swallowing problems. Socioeconomic factors may also delay prompt access to healthcare and indirectly increase the risk of complications, said Dr. Naumova.

Although a high proportion of patients with dementia are institutionalized and under supervision of healthcare personnel, rates of influenza vaccination and testing in dementia patients are unknown, she added.

"Limited access to specialized healthcare services can delay diagnosis and treatment of the flu, causing it to progress to pneumonia, the fifth leading cause of death among the elderly. This study has helped us identify this vulnerable population, and now further study is needed to confirm the findings and assess the testing and vaccination policies for older patients with dementia," she said.

Findings "Preliminary"

Commenting on the study's findings, William Thies, PhD, chief medical and scientific officer of the Alzheimer's Association, cautioned that although the findings are "interesting and complex" they are "preliminary."

"The fact that fewer people with dementia get the flu may simply reflect their restricted levels of social contact. There doesn't seem to be sufficient information on this issue to suggest a clarion call for change in health practices. We would need a significant amount of additional research to truly understand the complicated relationships between flu, pneumonia, and rural medical care delivery," he told Medscape Psychiatry.
 
Re: Japan : H3N1 reassortment fatalites or drift variant?

Re: Japan : H3N1 reassortment fatalites or drift variant?

note: 1985 influenza outbreaks in Connnecticut
Epidemiologic Notes and Reports Outbreaks of Influenza among Nursing Home Residents -- Connecticut, United States

Archived epidemiological study of H3N2 outbreaks in Nursing Homes without drift, shift or reassortment.

From publication:

.....

Outbreak 1. Nineteen residents of a skilled-care nursing facility had influenza-like illnesses. Ages ranged from 65 years to 94 years (median 84 years). Six of seven ill persons had fourfold or greater rises in hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody against influenza A(H3N2) viruses but no comparable rises against other respiratory pathogens. Residents of only one floor of the facility became ill. On the affected floor, the attack rate was 25% (19/75); the rate was 26% (15/57) for vaccinated persons; 19% (3/16) for unvaccinated persons; and 50% (1/2) for residents whose vaccination status was unknown. None of these differences were statistically significant (p

0.05).

Outbreak 2. Twenty-six residents of a skilled-care nursing facility had influenza-like illnesses. Ages ranged from 33 years to 95 years (median 83 years). One of 14 throat swabs collected from ill residents yielded influenza A(H3N2) virus similar to A/Philippines/2/82. All six ill residents from whom serum specimens were obtained had fourfold or greater rises in HI antibody against influenza A(H3N2). The overall attack rate was 31% (26/85); the rate was 40% (12/30) for vaccinated persons and 25% (14/55) for unvaccinated persons (p

0.05). Vaccinated persons did not differ from unvaccinated persons in terms of age, sex, or level of needed care. After 41 (66%) of the remaining 62 well residents were started on amantadine hydrochloride prophylaxis (100 mg/day), only one, a resident who had not received amantadine, became ill.

Outbreak 3. One hundred eleven residents of a large multiple level-of-care facility had influenza-like illnesses. Ages ranged from 64 years to 104 years (median 85 years). One of six throat swab specimens yielded influenza A(H3N2) virus similar to A/Philippines/2/82. Fourteen of 18 ill residents from whom paired sera were obtained had fourfold or greater rises in antibody against influenza A(H3N2). The overall attack rate was 23% (111/489); the rate was 22% (75/336) for vaccinated persons; 20% (25/128) for unvaccinated persons; and 44% (11/25) for residents whose vaccination status were unknown (p

0.05). After the widespread institution of amantadine hydrochloride prophylaxis (100 mg/day) for residents and staff members, three additional cases were identified among residents on amantadine.

Ten influenza-related deaths were reported from all three nursing homes. Because of small numbers, statistically significant differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated influenza patients were not detected for length of illness, frequency of hospitalization, development of pneumonia, or risk of death.

Outbreak 4. A fourth influenza A(H3N2) outbreak in Connecticut was investigated by local personnel. Fourteen (23%) of 60 nursing home residents requiring intermediate care were affected, including 10 (20%) of 49 vaccinated persons and four (36%) of 11 unvaccinated persons (p

0.05). One influenza-related death was reported.
.......
_____________________________________________
 
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Re: Japan : H3N2 reassortment fatalites or drift variant?

According to the article below, vaccination began only after the start of the outbreak, so the vaccine would not have had time to work anyway, removing the need to assume a reassortment or drift had taken place.

http://sankei.jp.msn.com/region/tohoku/akita/101108/akt1011080320000-n1.htm

[snip]

According to the provincial hospital in 29 days 10 A vaccine was administered to all patients, including mixed types in Hong Kong. However, are to take two weeks to develop antibodies, in fact, be considered that there was no effect.
 
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