tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
JMIR Public Health Surveill
. 2021 Dec 28.
doi: 10.2196/32638. Online ahead of print.
A novel analysis approach to determining the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Italy
Mengqing Yan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Wenjun Kang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Zhifeng Guo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Qi Wang[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP], Peizhong Peter Wang[SUP] 4 3 [/SUP], Yun Zhu[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yongli Yang[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Wei Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), which emerged in December 2019, has spread rapidly around the world and has become a serious public health event endangering human life. With regard to COVID-19, there are still many unknowns, such as the exact case fatality rate.
Objective: The main objective of this study was to explore the value of the discharged case fatality rate (DCFR) to make more accurate forecasts of epidemic trends the of COVID-19 in Italy.
Methods: We retrieved the epidemiological data of COVID-19 in Italy published by the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. We then used the proportion of daily deaths and total deaths to calculate the discharged case fatality rate (tDCFR), monthly discharged case fatality rate (mDCFR), and stage discharged case fatality rate (sDCFR). Furthermore, we analyzed the trend in mDCFR between January and December 2020 using Joinpoint Regression Analysis and used the ArcGIS version 10.7 software to visualize the spatial distribution of epidemic case fatality rate and assigned different colors to each province based on the CFR or tDCFR.
Results: We calculate the number and obtain the new index tDCFR and mDCFR for calculating the fatality rate. The results show that the overall trend of tDCFR and mDCFR fluctuates greatly from January to May. After reaching the peak, it first rises rapidly, then falls rapidly, and finally stabilizes. The map shows that the provinces with high tDCFR were Emilia-Romagna, Puglia and Lombardia. The change trend of mDCFR over time was divided into two stages, the first stage (from January to May) and the second stage (from June to December). Among the six selected countries, the United States has the highest tDCFR (4.26%), while the tDCFR of the remaining countries is between 0.98% and 2.72%.
Conclusions: We provide a new perspective for assessing the mortality of COVID-19 in Italy,which can use these ever-changing data to calculate a more accurate case fatality rate and scientifically predict the development trend of the epidemic.
. 2021 Dec 28.
doi: 10.2196/32638. Online ahead of print.
A novel analysis approach to determining the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Italy
Mengqing Yan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Wenjun Kang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Zhifeng Guo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Qi Wang[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP], Peizhong Peter Wang[SUP] 4 3 [/SUP], Yun Zhu[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yongli Yang[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Wei Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34963659
- DOI: 10.2196/32638
Abstract
Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), which emerged in December 2019, has spread rapidly around the world and has become a serious public health event endangering human life. With regard to COVID-19, there are still many unknowns, such as the exact case fatality rate.
Objective: The main objective of this study was to explore the value of the discharged case fatality rate (DCFR) to make more accurate forecasts of epidemic trends the of COVID-19 in Italy.
Methods: We retrieved the epidemiological data of COVID-19 in Italy published by the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. We then used the proportion of daily deaths and total deaths to calculate the discharged case fatality rate (tDCFR), monthly discharged case fatality rate (mDCFR), and stage discharged case fatality rate (sDCFR). Furthermore, we analyzed the trend in mDCFR between January and December 2020 using Joinpoint Regression Analysis and used the ArcGIS version 10.7 software to visualize the spatial distribution of epidemic case fatality rate and assigned different colors to each province based on the CFR or tDCFR.
Results: We calculate the number and obtain the new index tDCFR and mDCFR for calculating the fatality rate. The results show that the overall trend of tDCFR and mDCFR fluctuates greatly from January to May. After reaching the peak, it first rises rapidly, then falls rapidly, and finally stabilizes. The map shows that the provinces with high tDCFR were Emilia-Romagna, Puglia and Lombardia. The change trend of mDCFR over time was divided into two stages, the first stage (from January to May) and the second stage (from June to December). Among the six selected countries, the United States has the highest tDCFR (4.26%), while the tDCFR of the remaining countries is between 0.98% and 2.72%.
Conclusions: We provide a new perspective for assessing the mortality of COVID-19 in Italy,which can use these ever-changing data to calculate a more accurate case fatality rate and scientifically predict the development trend of the epidemic.