tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Math Biosci Eng
. 2024 Jul 3;21(7):6493-6520.
doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024283. Epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination: Optimal strategies and remarks on the COVID-19 Italian response policy
Alberto d'Onofrio[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mimmo Iannelli[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Piero Manfredi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Gabriela Marinoschi[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
After the many failures in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying robust principles of epidemic control will be key in future preparedness. In this work, we propose an optimal control model of an age-of-infection transmission model under a two-phase control regime where social distancing is the only available control tool in the first phase, while the second phase also benefits from the arrival of vaccines. We analyzed the problem by an ad-hoc numerical algorithm under a strong hypothesis implying a high degree of prioritization to the protection of health from the epidemic attack, which we termed the "low attack rate" hypothesis. The outputs of the model were also compared with the data from the Italian COVID-19 experience to provide a crude assessment of the goodness of the enacted interventions prior to the onset of the Omicron variant.
Keywords: COVID-19; age-structured epidemics; non-pharmaceutical interventions; numerical methods; optimal control; population dynamics; social distancing; vaccination campaign.
. 2024 Jul 3;21(7):6493-6520.
doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024283. Epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination: Optimal strategies and remarks on the COVID-19 Italian response policy
Alberto d'Onofrio[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mimmo Iannelli[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Piero Manfredi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Gabriela Marinoschi[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 39176405
- DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024283
After the many failures in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying robust principles of epidemic control will be key in future preparedness. In this work, we propose an optimal control model of an age-of-infection transmission model under a two-phase control regime where social distancing is the only available control tool in the first phase, while the second phase also benefits from the arrival of vaccines. We analyzed the problem by an ad-hoc numerical algorithm under a strong hypothesis implying a high degree of prioritization to the protection of health from the epidemic attack, which we termed the "low attack rate" hypothesis. The outputs of the model were also compared with the data from the Italian COVID-19 experience to provide a crude assessment of the goodness of the enacted interventions prior to the onset of the Omicron variant.
Keywords: COVID-19; age-structured epidemics; non-pharmaceutical interventions; numerical methods; optimal control; population dynamics; social distancing; vaccination campaign.