Math Biosci Eng. The impact of vaccines and vaccinations

[Laidback Al]

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
Volume 8, Number 1, January 2011, pp. 77 -93

The impact of vaccines and vaccinations: Challenges and opportunities for modelers

Roy Curtiss III - <small>Center for Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States</small>​

Abstract: This review focuses on how infectious diseases and their prevention and control by development of vaccines and widespread vaccination has shaped evolution of human civilization and of the animals and plants that humans depend on for food, labor and companionship. After describing major infectious diseases and the current status for control by vaccination, the barriers to infection and the attributes of innate and acquired immunity contributing to control are discussed. The evolution in types of vaccines is presented in the context of developing technologies and in improving adjuvants to engender enhanced vaccine efficacy. The special concerns and needs in vaccine design and development are discussed in dealing with epidemics/pandemics with special emphasis on influenza and current global problems in vaccine delivery.​

Keywords: Vaccines; vaccination; vaccine design; immunity.
Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 58F15, 58F17; Secondary: 53C35.​

http://aimsciences.org/journals/displayArticles.jsp?paperID=5838

Full article is open access at: http://aimsciences.org/journals/doIpChk.jsp?paperID=5838&mode=full

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Math Biosci Eng. The impact of vaccines and vaccinations

Someone might want to go back to the drawing board on the influenza vaccine. According to the latest AFHSC report, "There have been 365 reportable medical event (RME) influenza cases among service members (73.2% were vaccinated) since week 40." Would it have been better not to have gotten the influenza vax this season?
http://www.afhsc.mil/fluReports?clear

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Math Biosci Eng. The impact of vaccines and vaccinations

All of the information presented in the AFHSC surveillance report is graphed by percentages except Reportable Medical events (RME) which are presented as actual cases counts. The RME of 365 represents the total number since fall of 2010 (Week 40) through Week 8 of 2011 (20 weeks).

The current report indicates "DoD influenza immunization coverage has exceeded 92%". US military personnel (including Active and Reserve) total about 2.2 million individuals of which 92% have been vaccinated. (.92 x 2,200,00= about 2 million)

So 365 RMEs out of 2 million vaccinated individuals is about .00018 percent, a statistically insignificant amount. Also, according to my reading, the military also includes individuals with influenza in that count. We all know that flu vaccines do not protect 100% from infection and it is also possible that these individuals were already infected by the time they received the vaccination.

Considered in this light, vaccinations in the military (and the general population) are safe and effective and are not causing RMEs.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Math Biosci Eng. The impact of vaccines and vaccinations

"For service members, the total number vaccinated at least 14 days prior to the RME date is also reported" so probably were not exposed prior to

In the graph "Incidence Rate of P&I and ILI among Active Duty Service Members", it appears that the P&I rate for unvax is ~.4 per 1,000 and for vax ~.3 per 1,000. The ILI rate being the same for unvax as vax at ~.45 per 1,000.
http://www.afhsc.mil/viewFlu?file=mhsWeekly.pdf#Page=02