Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River to Suwannee River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The eye is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) between Andros Island and
Nassau in the Bahamas. This general motion is expected to continue
today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or early
Friday. On the forecast track, Matthew should cross the northwestern
Bahamas later today and move close to or over the east coast of the
Florida peninsula through Friday night.
Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain
a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force plane was
940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting the central Bahamas
and these condition will spread into the northwestern Bahamas during
the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.
Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South
Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/061454.shtml?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT44 KNHC 061456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection,
and T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Data
from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the
hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened. The initial
intensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data
and an eyewall dropsonde.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
intensification today while Matthew approaches the east coast of
Florida. After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some
weakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a
more rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is slightly above
most of the guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent
intensification, and follows the weakening trend of the consensus
thereafter.
Aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or
325 degrees at 10 kt. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew
is expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36
hours. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing
the hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward
while it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By
the end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast
to change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn
southward.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.
2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.
3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.
4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.
5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 25.1N 77.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.3N 80.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 30.2N 81.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 31.7N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 32.5N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/061456.shtml?
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River to Suwannee River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The eye is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) between Andros Island and
Nassau in the Bahamas. This general motion is expected to continue
today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or early
Friday. On the forecast track, Matthew should cross the northwestern
Bahamas later today and move close to or over the east coast of the
Florida peninsula through Friday night.
Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain
a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force plane was
940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting the central Bahamas
and these condition will spread into the northwestern Bahamas during
the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.
Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South
Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/061454.shtml?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT44 KNHC 061456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection,
and T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Data
from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the
hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened. The initial
intensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data
and an eyewall dropsonde.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
intensification today while Matthew approaches the east coast of
Florida. After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some
weakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a
more rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is slightly above
most of the guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent
intensification, and follows the weakening trend of the consensus
thereafter.
Aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or
325 degrees at 10 kt. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew
is expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36
hours. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing
the hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward
while it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By
the end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast
to change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn
southward.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.
2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.
3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.
4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.
5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 25.1N 77.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.3N 80.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 30.2N 81.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 31.7N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 32.5N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/061456.shtml?
