tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Infect Dis. 2016 Aug 25. pii: S1201-9712(16)31139-0. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2016.08.012. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Mechanisms of replacement of circulating viruses by seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses.[/h] Furuse Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Oshitani H[SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Seasonal influenza causes annual epidemics by the accumulation of antigenic changes. Pandemic influenza occurs through a major antigenic change of the influenza A virus, which can originate from other hosts. Although new antigenic variants of the influenza A virus replace formerly circulating seasonal and pandemic viruses, replacement mechanisms remain poorly understood.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] Stochastic individual-based SEIR model with two viral strains (formerly circulating old strain and emerged new strain) was developed for simulations to elucidate the replacement mechanisms.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] We identified factors and conditions of virus and host's population affecting the replacement. Replacement is more likely to occur in tropical regions than temperate regions. Magnitude of ongoing epidemic by old strain, herd immunity against the old strain, or the timing of appearance of new strain is not that important for replacement. It is probable that frequency of replacement by a pandemic virus is higher than a seasonal virus because of the high initial susceptibility and high basic reproductive number of the pandemic virus.
[h=4]CONCLUSION:[/h] Findings in this study about replacement mechanisms would lead to a better understanding of virus transmission dynamics and may possibly be helpful for establishing an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza.
Copyright ? 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] antigenic drift; ecology; influenza; pandemic; population; transmission dynamics
PMID: 27569827 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2016.08.012
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text
[h=1]Mechanisms of replacement of circulating viruses by seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses.[/h] Furuse Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Oshitani H[SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Seasonal influenza causes annual epidemics by the accumulation of antigenic changes. Pandemic influenza occurs through a major antigenic change of the influenza A virus, which can originate from other hosts. Although new antigenic variants of the influenza A virus replace formerly circulating seasonal and pandemic viruses, replacement mechanisms remain poorly understood.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] Stochastic individual-based SEIR model with two viral strains (formerly circulating old strain and emerged new strain) was developed for simulations to elucidate the replacement mechanisms.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] We identified factors and conditions of virus and host's population affecting the replacement. Replacement is more likely to occur in tropical regions than temperate regions. Magnitude of ongoing epidemic by old strain, herd immunity against the old strain, or the timing of appearance of new strain is not that important for replacement. It is probable that frequency of replacement by a pandemic virus is higher than a seasonal virus because of the high initial susceptibility and high basic reproductive number of the pandemic virus.
[h=4]CONCLUSION:[/h] Findings in this study about replacement mechanisms would lead to a better understanding of virus transmission dynamics and may possibly be helpful for establishing an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza.
Copyright ? 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] antigenic drift; ecology; influenza; pandemic; population; transmission dynamics
PMID: 27569827 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2016.08.012
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text