sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
hat tip to Michael Coston for the link
SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation 202012/01 has more than twofold replicative advantage
Posted January 04, 2021.
View ORCID ProfileFrederic Grabowski, Grzegorz Preibisch, View ORCID ProfileMarek Kochanczyk, View ORCID ProfileTomasz Lipniacki
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract
The novel SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation VUI−202012/01 (also known as B.1.1.7), first collected on September 20, 2020, in Kent, is a rapidly growing lineage that in the first half of December 2020 constitutes more than 1/3 of all SARS−CoV−2 genomes sequenced in England. Based on GISAID data we have shown nearly exponential growth of the VUI−202012/01 to non−VUI−202012/01 genomes ratio in the five-week period since October 19 till November 22, 2020, with weekly growth rate of 2.31 [95% CI: 2.08−2.57]. Assuming the serial interval of 6.73 days we estimated the replicative advantage of VUI−202012/01 lineage as 2.31^(6.73/7) = 2.24 [95% CI: 2.03−2.48]. Such significant replicative advantage and the fact that London serves as major international transportation hub suggest that the VUI−202012/01 strain will likely become globally dominant, hindering containment of the COVID−19 epidemics prior to massive vaccinations.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This study was supported by the National Science Centre (Poland) grant 2018/29/B/NZ2/00668.
SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation 202012/01 has more than twofold replicative advantage
Posted January 04, 2021.
View ORCID ProfileFrederic Grabowski, Grzegorz Preibisch, View ORCID ProfileMarek Kochanczyk, View ORCID ProfileTomasz Lipniacki
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract
The novel SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation VUI−202012/01 (also known as B.1.1.7), first collected on September 20, 2020, in Kent, is a rapidly growing lineage that in the first half of December 2020 constitutes more than 1/3 of all SARS−CoV−2 genomes sequenced in England. Based on GISAID data we have shown nearly exponential growth of the VUI−202012/01 to non−VUI−202012/01 genomes ratio in the five-week period since October 19 till November 22, 2020, with weekly growth rate of 2.31 [95% CI: 2.08−2.57]. Assuming the serial interval of 6.73 days we estimated the replicative advantage of VUI−202012/01 lineage as 2.31^(6.73/7) = 2.24 [95% CI: 2.03−2.48]. Such significant replicative advantage and the fact that London serves as major international transportation hub suggest that the VUI−202012/01 strain will likely become globally dominant, hindering containment of the COVID−19 epidemics prior to massive vaccinations.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This study was supported by the National Science Centre (Poland) grant 2018/29/B/NZ2/00668.