tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Theor Biol. 2015 Nov 12. pii: S0022-5193(15)00536-6. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.11.002. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Media coverage and hospital notifications: correlation analysis and optimal media impact duration to manage a pandemic.[/h] Yan Q[SUP]1[/SUP], Tang S[SUP]1[/SUP], Gabriele S[SUP]2[/SUP], Wu J[SUP]3[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] News reporting has the potential to modify a community's knowledge of emerging infectious diseases and affect peoples' attitudes and behavior. Here we developed a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of media on such behavior. Statistically significant correlations between the number of new hospital notifications, during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic in the Shaanxi province of China, and the number of daily news items added to eight major websites were found from Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses. We also proposed a novel model to examine the implication for transmission dynamics of these correlations. The model incorporated the media impact function into the force of infection, and enhanced the traditional epidemic SEIR model with the addition of media dynamics. We used a nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values in the model from the observed data. We also carried out the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to determine key parameters during early phase of the disease outbreak for the final outcome of the outbreak with media impact. The findings confirm the importance of responses by individuals to the media reports, with behavior changes having important consequence for the emerging infectious disease control. Therefore, for mitigating emerging infectious diseases, media publicity should be focused on how to guide people's behavioral changes, which are critical for limiting the spread of disease.
Copyright ? 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] A/H1N1; Basic reproduction number; Behaviour change; Correlation analysis; Media report; SEIR model
PMID: 26582723 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
[h=1]Media coverage and hospital notifications: correlation analysis and optimal media impact duration to manage a pandemic.[/h] Yan Q[SUP]1[/SUP], Tang S[SUP]1[/SUP], Gabriele S[SUP]2[/SUP], Wu J[SUP]3[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] News reporting has the potential to modify a community's knowledge of emerging infectious diseases and affect peoples' attitudes and behavior. Here we developed a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of media on such behavior. Statistically significant correlations between the number of new hospital notifications, during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic in the Shaanxi province of China, and the number of daily news items added to eight major websites were found from Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses. We also proposed a novel model to examine the implication for transmission dynamics of these correlations. The model incorporated the media impact function into the force of infection, and enhanced the traditional epidemic SEIR model with the addition of media dynamics. We used a nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values in the model from the observed data. We also carried out the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to determine key parameters during early phase of the disease outbreak for the final outcome of the outbreak with media impact. The findings confirm the importance of responses by individuals to the media reports, with behavior changes having important consequence for the emerging infectious disease control. Therefore, for mitigating emerging infectious diseases, media publicity should be focused on how to guide people's behavioral changes, which are critical for limiting the spread of disease.
Copyright ? 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] A/H1N1; Basic reproduction number; Behaviour change; Correlation analysis; Media report; SEIR model
PMID: 26582723 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]