tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Apr 2:1-8. doi: 10.1017/S0950268818000705. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.[/h] Zhang J[SUP]1[/SUP], Nawata K[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all <15%, averagely 12.930%. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza-like illness (ILI); long short-term memory (LSTM); multi-step-ahead time-series prediction
PMID: 29606177 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268818000705
[h=1]Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.[/h] Zhang J[SUP]1[/SUP], Nawata K[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all <15%, averagely 12.930%. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza-like illness (ILI); long short-term memory (LSTM); multi-step-ahead time-series prediction
PMID: 29606177 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268818000705