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Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

this disease looks somehow like immuno-deficiancy for pigs.
Or several viruses "cooperate" to cause severe infection.

One of these viruses could be swine-influenza(H1N1) or even H5N1...

pigs are genetically similar to humans, they have both avian and
human receptors in their upper airway.
Pig-influenza and human influenza viruses are typically more similar
than bird-influenza and human influenza.
Pigs catching H5N1 and spreading it in long chains P2P2..2P is cause for concern
since the virus will adapt to pigs and may then spread to humans.

In 1918 pigs are supposed to have caught H1N1 from humans,
causing a pig-flu-epizootic (not panzootic, I think (?))
resulting in separately-evolving H1N1-strains until today.
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

UNDIAGNOSED DISEASE, PORCINE - CHINA (09)
*****************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Tue 5 Jun 2007
Source: People's Daily online, Xinhua News Agency report [edited]
<http://english.people.com.cn:80/200706/05/print20070605_380998.html>


China's Ministry of Agriculture on Tuesday [5 Jun 2007] warned the
country's pig breeders that they are entering the peak season for the
highly pathogenic blue ear disease, also known as porcine reproductive and
respiratory syndrome (PRRS), which has already killed 18 000 pigs this year
[2007].

Between January and May 2007, 45 000 pigs contracted the disease, but a
ministry source failed to specify what provinces and regions had reported
outbreaks. Earlier reports said south China's Guangdong Province and
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region had reported outbreaks.

The source said 12 factories are producing new-type vaccines for the
disease, under the supervision of China's Veterinary Medicine Supervisory
Institution.

The ministry has instructed PRRS-affected regions to implement all disease
control measures and prevent the infection from spreading, and it has
dispatched inspection teams to supervise this work. Pig breeders have been
ordered to establish a nationwide immunization system, which covers
disinfection and proper treatment of dead animals and of their excrement.
The ministry has also implemented a complete ban on the sale, transport,
and processing of pigs that have died from the disease. It is also
establishing a central monitoring system for signs of PRRS virus mutations,
which should be completed by the end of June [2007].

The outbreaks have contributed to rising pork prices in some areas. It is
believed the price hikes will help raise the country's consumer price index
(CPI) to a new high for May [2007].

--
communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[The publication above provides some new information, especially regarding
the scope of the efforts required for the containment of the emerging
disease in swine, which was initially (2006) denominated by the Chinese as
"swine high fever disease" (SHFD; a multifactorial syndrome), and recently
as PRRS. The PRRS virus was among the disease agents reportedly involved in
SHFD. Regardless of the nomenclature -- SHFD or PRRS -- the very severe
losses are beyond doubt, and accurate epidemiological information is deficient.

During the recent months, contradictory information on the incidence and
distribution of the disease in China and on its etiology, has been
published by official and unofficial sources. According to one of them,
(Guangxi News -- Modern Life Daily, 12 May 2007, translated from Chinese,
and posted in ProMED-mail 20070514.1533), SHFD had already been discovered
in vast areas of the Guangxi Autonomous Region, while during the previous
months, it had been reported "in Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong, Shandong,
Liaoning, Jilin, and other provinces", causing the deaths of "more than 20
million pigs, with extremely heavy economic losses". A look at a map of
China <http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad/remote/china/chinamap.gif> will show
that, if the above information is accurate, the disease has spread across
eastern China, from Jilin in the north east, to Guangdong and Guangxi in
the south east and south, a distance exceeding 3000 km (1864 mi) within the
pig-breeding provinces of China.

The blurred picture has already bred suspicions on the possible involvement
of various disease agents, in addition to PRRSV, including FMD, avian
influenza, classical swine fever, and even African swine fever; to
(hopefully) exclude them and to enable a realistic assessment of the
situation, an official OIE (Office International des Epizooties; World
Organization for Animal Health) update is anticipated. - Mod.AS]

[see also:
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (08): RFI 20070604.1808
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (07): RFI 20070530.1740
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (06) 20070529.1735
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (05) 20070525.1675
Porcine reprod. & resp. syndrome - China (02) 20070514.1533
Porcine reprod & resp syndr - China (Guangdong): OIE 20070512.1517
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (04) 20070509.1492
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (03) 20070508.1479
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (02): update 20070406.1155
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China: update 20070114.0185
Porcine reproductive & respiratory syndrome - Viet Nam (05) 20070512.1516
Porcine reproductive & respiratory syndrome - Viet Nam (04): OIE 20070422.1316
Porcine reproductive & respiratory syndrome - Viet Nam (02): OIE 20070414.1245
2006
---
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (04) 20061129.3387
Undiagnosed disease, porcine - China (03): OIE 20060924.2732]
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

please say, that the 18000 are utter nonsense
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Hmmm

18k/45k = 4% case fatality rate

But from other sources, there are 467M head.

So the incidence rate is 45K/467M or 0.0096%

Surely there's research out there that describes a confidence interval of the indicence rate for this disease from other oubreaks? Could we not apply those rates to the Chinesese pig population to get more reasonable figures?

J.
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="99%" align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=dt>
600 tons of frozen meat entering the market will reduce the price of meat
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=dtime>
Latest Updated by 2007-06-05 10:20:26​
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=dc><TABLE class=rlblock cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=200 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle><TABLE class=rlnewsblock cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="99%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/china1/200705240034.htm</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/china1/200705310016.htm</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/Guangdong1/200705240032.htm</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/weekly news/200705310066.htm</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/picstories/200705280008.htm</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/Guangdong1/200705280046.htm</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=rlnewsblock cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="99%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/Guangdong1/200706050015.htm</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/Guangdong1/200706050016.htm</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsline3>http://www.newsgd.com/news/Guangdong1/200706050006.htm</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The government of Guangzhou Municipality purchased the first batch of pork from Sichuan Province in order to meet the urgent needs. The pork was transported from Chengdou to Guangzhou on the afternoon of June 3rd. It was reported that this batch of pork weighed 600 tons, and the entirety of it was frozen products. After passing the quarantine tests, the frozen spareribs will be put into the consumer market, while the other meat will become industrial meat for the meat-processing factories. In this way, decreasing the need for the fresh meat.
According to The Economic and Trade Commission of Guangzhou Municipality, the rice of fresh meat in Guangzhou tends to stabilize for about a week. In the Jiahe Pig-Trading Center, the trade price of the well-bred pig (first-rate pig) has declined to 13.7 Yuan a kilo, and the retail price of lean meat which is 26 Yuan a kilo has also lasted for a week. There were no large increases in price during this period of time. In this situation, after putting the frozen meat into the market, the supply and demand will be further balanced, and thus it is hoped that the price of the fresh meat will be reduced slightly.:tiphat: http://www.newsgd.com/news/Guangdong1/200706050016.htm
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Pig-killing disease spreads in China

Pig-killing disease spreads in China

Pig-killing disease spreads in China
The Associated Press
Article Launched: 06/11/2007 03:46:23 AM PDT

BEIJING?Blue ear disease, blamed for a surge in politically sensitive pork prices, has spread to 22 Chinese provinces and regions, the country's chief veterinarian said on Monday.

The disease, also called porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, was first identified in the United States in 1987, according to the Web site of the World Organization for Animal Health.

The disease does not affect people but can be fatal for pigs.

Jia Youling, director of the veterinarian department of the Ministry of Agriculture, told a news conference that the disease had infected pigs in 22 provinces and regions in the first five months of this year.

China has 23 provinces, five autonomous regions and four self-governed municipalities.

The disease has killed more than 18,000 pigs, Jia said, according to a transcript of the news conference posted on the ministry's Web site.

"We have already developed testing and vaccines for the disease," Jia said. "We have reported the findings to relevant international organizations."

The disease has been blamed for sharply raising pork prices, a sensitive political issue in China.

Pork prices have shot up 43 percent in the last year. The jump was so serious that the Cabinet held an emergency session recently to discuss it, and Premier Wen Jiabao made public appearances broadcast on state television to address concerns.

Many farmers have stopped raising pigs because of worries they would lose money if the animals died.

Pork is the meat of choice for most people in China. Urban Chinese ate an average of 42 pounds per person in 2006, according to the ministry.
 
China farmers feed slandered bananas to pigs

China farmers feed slandered bananas to pigs


REFILE-China farmers feed slandered bananas to pigs

13 Jun 2007 09:01:49 GMT
Source: Reuters

Corrects date in datelines to June 13)

BEIJING, June 13 (Reuters) - Banana growers in southern China have taken to feeding pigs their produce to clear towering stockpiles after a string of rumours about SARS and cancer risks.

While the price of pork in China soared last month as a result of pig disease and a spike in the price of feedcorn, the price of bananas at some markets on the subtropical island of Hainan plunged to next to nothing, news portal Chinanews.com said.

"Two rumours this year have caused direct losses of about 820 million yuan ($107.5 million), affecting 376,000 mu (24,000 hectares) of land and a million people," the report quoted Meng Xuru, a local agricultural official, as saying.

Last month, China's Agriculture Ministry dismissed a rumour that bananas might contain viruses similar to SARS, a flu-like disease that killed close to 800 people out of a known 8,000 infected before being brought under control in 2003.

Hainan bananas were also subject to rumours they caused cancer earlier this year when the island's plantations suffered a fungus blight called yellow wilt, or Panama disease.

The rumours came at a time of heightened scrutiny of Chinese food and drug quality, following a spate of safety breaches in recent months, including toxins in toothpaste shipped to Panama and other central American countries.
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

In a state controlled media, for 'rumours' to spread so far and wide, and cause such a marked crash in demand for a staple food, there must be some incidence of disease that people are seeking to attribute a cause to - and in this case the implication of the rumour is that it is a SARS like disease. Add to that the point that despite prices being very low, people are still not buying the produce, and in a country where the poor are still very poor. Food for thought.
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

From my point of view I think I'm seeing a certain amount of sensationalism in the news.

Granted Beijing is a long way from Shanghai, but pork prices have dropped here now 16 rmb down from a high of 18 rmb for one week. I bought bananas this week, the price hasn't changed. It is still the same as the day we arrived in April. There weren't many bananas, but the stores here don't seem to place a priority in keeping their shelves fully stocked, so I don't know if that means something or not.

I hope to be in Beijing & Xian over the next 2 weeks I'll try to report on prices there as compared to Shanghai.
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

UNDIAGNOSED DISEASE, PORCINE - CHINA (12): PORCINE REPRODUCTIVE &
RESPIRATORY DISEASE
*****************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Fri 22 Jun 2007
Source: PLoS ONE [edited]
<http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1885284>


[The following paper, freely available online, has been published in
the June 2007 issue of PLoS (Public Library of Science) ONE

<WWW.PLOSONE.ORG>.

Tian K, Yu X, Zhao T, Feng Y, Cao Z, et al (2007): Emergence of Fatal
PRRSV Variants: Unparalleled Outbreaks of Atypical PRRS in China and
Molecular Dissection of the Unique Hallmark. PLoS ONE 2(6): e526.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000526]

Summary
-------
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a severe
viral disease in pigs, causing great economic losses worldwide each
year. The causative agent of the disease, PRRS virus (PRRSV), is a
member of the family _Arteriviridae_.

Here we report our investigation of the unparalleled large-scale
outbreaks of an originally unknown, but so-called "high fever"
disease in China in 2006, with the essence of PRRS, which spread to
more than 10 provinces (autonomous cities or regions) and affected
over 2 million pigs with about 400 000 fatal cases.


Different from the typical PRRS, numerous adult sows were also
infected by the "high fever" disease. This atypical PRRS pandemic was
initially identified as a hog cholera-like disease manifesting
neurological symptoms (such as shivering), high fever (40-42 deg C /
104-107.6 deg F), erythematous blanching rash, etc. Autopsies
combined with immunological analyses clearly showed that multiple
organs were infected by highly pathogenic PRRSVs with severe
pathological changes observed. Whole-genome analysis of the isolated
viruses revealed that these PRRSV isolates are grouped into Type II
and are highly homologous to HB-1, a Chinese strain of PRRSV (96.5
percent nucleotide identity). More importantly, we observed a unique
molecular hallmark in these viral isolates, namely a discontinuous
deletion of 30 amino acids in nonstructural protein 2 (NSP2). Taken
together, this is the 1st comprehensive report documenting the 2006
epidemic of atypical PRRS outbreak in China and identifying the 30
amino-acid deletion in NSP2, a novel determining factor for
virulence, which may be implicated in the high pathogenicity of
PRRSV, and will stimulate further study by using the infectious cDNA
clone technique.

--
Communicated by:
Les Sims
Asia Pacific Veterinary Information Services Pty Ltd
<apvis@bigpond.net.au>

[This paper was also forwarded to us by Dr Peter Roeder, FAO (Food
and Agriculture Organization), who is cordially acknowledged.

The full list of authors and their respective affiliations is:
Kegong Tian(1), Xiuling Yu(1), Tiezhu Zhao(1), Youjun Feng(2,3), Zhen
Cao(1), Chuanbin Wang(1), Yan Hu(1), Xizhao Chen(1), Dongmei Hu(1),
Xinsheng Tian(2,3), Di Liu(2), Shuo Zhang(1), Xiaoyu Deng(1), Yinqiao
Ding(1), Lu Yang(1), Yunxia Zhang(1,4), Haixia Xiao(2,3), Mingming
Qiao(1,4), Bin Wang(1,4), Lili Hou(1,4), Xiaoying Wang(1), Xinyan
Yang(1), Liping Kang(1), Ming Sun(1), Ping Jin(1), Shujuan Wang(2,4),
Yoshihiro Kitamura(2,5), Jinghua Yan(2), George F. Gao(2,5).

1. China Animal Disease Control Center, Beijing, China
2. Center for Molecular Immunology, Institute of Microbiology,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
3. Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
4. College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University,
Beijing, China
5. China-Japan Joint Laboratory of Molecular Immunology and Molecular
Microbiology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing, China

The paper includes a map of the affected provinces, pictures of
clinical and anatomo-pathological findings, and details of an
experimental infection trial that was done. The following copied
clause may help in assessing the initial confusions on the issue, as
reflected in the media:

"Initially, the "high fever" was suspected to be hog cholera or
African swine fever (ASF). The representative sick pigs had the
following common clinical symptoms: rubefaction, blood spots,
petechiae, erythematous blanching rashes, and pimples, frequently
observed in ears, mouth, noses, back, and the inner thigh. Other
common symptoms included high fever (40-42 deg C / 104-107.6 deg F),
depression, anorexia, cough, asthma, lameness, shivering, disorder in
the respiratory tract, and diarrhea. Infected pigs could be divided
into 2 groups: group one, which appeared fat and healthy; and group 2
with thin and debilitated features, ultimately leading to death. To
our surprise, many grown pigs also died during this epidemic period,
which is unlike the case for typical PRRSV infection.

"The disease course varied from 5 to 20 days. Infected pigs were
highly contagious, usually affecting the whole pig population within
3-5 days. The 1st pig death case was recorded on the 7th day
post-monitoring. The epidemic persisted for several months without
any obvious improvements, due partly to poor initial knowledge of the
etiological agent as well as the limited efficacy of the routine
treatments.


"Consequently, this large-scale outbreak of so-called "high fever"
disease has caused enormous economic losses, especially for pig
farmers. According to authoritative statistics from China Animal
Disease Control Center (CADC), this epidemic ended in September
[2006], affected about 2 120 000 pigs and claimed a death toll of no
less than 400 000 pigs, with an average death rate of 19.68 percent".

Regarding the laboratory infection trials, the paper provides the
following information:

"To reproduce what we observed in the field, laboratory infection
experiments were performed using 16 SPF-piglets (specific
pathogen-free). Three newly isolated PRRSV strains, termed JXA1,
HEB1, and HUB2, were used and they were isolated from dead pigs in
Jiangxi Province, Hebei Province, and Hubei Province, respectively.
One virulent strain (termed LB2) of PRRSV (collected in our
laboratory) was used for positive control. The viral titers of nasal
and injection challenge were 1.0 ml and 0.5 ml of virus culture (107
PFU/ml), respectively. Challenged pigs (4 piglets/group) were
monitored daily for clinical signs. Viral isolates were recovered
from those animals showing apparent clinical symptoms. Autopsies were
performed for further examination of the immunological effects and
pathological lesions".
-----

It would be helpful if further details on the experimental infection
trials become available, including the clinical and pathological
changes in the challenged piglets, in comparison to the positive
control and, in particular, to field observations.

It would also help to obtain details on the laboratory methods
applied to exclude CSF and ASF in the field-collected material.

The paper addresses the 2006 outbreak, stating that it was finished
by September (2006). According to media reports and to a recent
notification of China's Vet Services to the OIE (World Organization
for Animal Health), the so-called "swine high fever disease" is
continuing its spread during 2007, causing heavy economical losses in
China. The paper above is a valuable step on the road to unfolding the
etiology. -
Mod.AS]:tiphat:
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome..._BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,38063
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

Disease pork meat injection reappearance Chinese market
)
<SMALL>(ABC Beijing time on June 22, 2007 reproduced)</SMALL>
According to the "Radio Australia" report, the government said that some recent local rampant illegal vendors, Some patients pork meat and water injection again in the market, the government will take measures against these ofAccording to the relevant parts of sources, some market sale of pork from sick pigs, consumer health is seriously threatened. Some unscrupulous traders to pork injection in order to increase the weight.

Not long ago as a result of blue ear pig disease, in the first five months of this year were culling of 18,000 pigs. killed last year in the first few more. The epidemic caused Chinese pork shortage, and market prices are soaring, even on the national inflation rate increased pressure on the formation.

Last month, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited the pig base, the government announced a number of measuresHe assured that the government will let low-income families can afford to buy pork.

Http : / / www.radioaustralia.net.au / english / arti cles/s1959694.htm (ABC boxun.com) fenders. :tiphat: http://64.233.179.104/translate_c?h....com/news/gb/china/2007/06/200706222231.shtml
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

the 2nd quarter ends in a week, then they will have to publish the
new quarterly statistics of pigs in China
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

6.5 billion to stabilize pork prices rising (Chart)
(<SMALL>博讯北京时间2007年6月24日转载</SMALL>)
<SMALL>(ABC Beijing time on June 24, 2007 reproduced)</SMALL>
Source : Xinhuanet
To promote the healthy development of Swine Industry, the Ministry of Finance announced on the 22nd. China will establish sows insurance subsidies combined with the system. The state finance will arrange special funds for this support. Arrangements for this year is expected to nearly 6.5 billion yuan, of which the central government about 3.8 billion yuan.
<TABLE cellPadding=0 align=right><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 10pt; PADDING-TOP: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体" align=middle>
200706241959china1.jpg
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Xinhua learned from the Ministry of Finance to the stability of the pork market, properly resolved pork price hikes caused by the people's livelihood and to promote the pig industry's healthy development, as approved by the State Council recently, Ministry of Finance issued a "response on the increase in the price of pork pig industry to promote the healthy development of the notice."

According to the "notice" that the state must establish sows insurance subsidies combined with the system and promote the production of live pigs, accelerate the implementation of the minimal needs of the staff and students of difficulties subsidies and market regulation, Construction also focus pig industry to the healthy development of a long-term mechanism.

Ministry of Finance said that beginning in 2007, the state's finance will arrange special funds support for the establishment of breeding sows insurance and subsidies combined system.

It is learned that the special funds on the one hand, it will support the capacity of breeding sows for major diseases, natural disasters and other insurance system, increase the pig disease prevention system to support and enhance farming households to withstand major diseases, natural disasters and other risks.
The other hand, support for the establishment of breeding sows subsidy system. Based on the state's financial sows insured amount per head principles of the annual 50 million fixed standards, Sows kept right offered direct subsidies to enhance farming households to withstand the risk of rising costs, stable pig industry leaders.

Meanwhile, the central finance will increase investment and effectively to support the blue ear pig disease prevention and control work. In addition, the scattered litter and enforcing immunization vaccines provide subsidies requirements by the central and local governments jointly burden the central finance for the eastern, central and western regions respectively 20% subsidy, 50% and 80%. Recently, the central financial subsidy vaccine has been allocated for 285 million yuan, the local financial department should share the burden. timely arrangements and the allocation of funds vaccines, and to strengthen management of funds and ensure a pig blue ear disease prevention and control work needs.

。​
"Notice" has also demanded that step up arrangements for the implementation of the minimal needs of the school staff and families in financial difficulties college students and other disadvantaged groups subsidies. The central budget for this year will be 470 million yuan, an increase of the minimal needs of subsidies, alleviate pork and other non-staple food price hikes of living in the impact on lives. In addition, the central finance has arranged the grants 280 million yuan of funds for the general undergraduate schools, Higher vocational schools and secondary vocational school students with financial difficulties receive subsidies.

On this basis, China will also strengthen the government's control means, perfect live pigs and pork products such as early warning and monitoring system, establish and perfect pork and other non-staple food reserve system, appropriate national reserves increased meat scale, a reasonable adjustment reserves structure and layout, control reserves played the role of the market.
_(网文转载)(博讯 boxun.com)​
_ (Net 418) (ABC boxun.com) :tiphat: http://64.233.179.104/translate_c?h....com/news/gb/china/2007/06/200706241959.shtml
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

ProMed
Date: Mon 25 Jun 2007
Source: Food QS.com [in Chinese, translated by Rappt.DS, edited]
<http://www.foodqs.com/news/schq002/200762511558763.htm>


Recently, there have been outbreaks of pig disease in some parts of China.
The enthusiasm of breeders has taken another hit, weakening breeder demand
for soymeal in the short term. Sources say that pig disease is
comparatively serious in the Guangdong region. Local industry insiders say
that, in addition to highly pathogenic blue ear disease, there is also an
outbreak(s) of a not well-known [alternatively, "unknown"] disease for
which vaccines are not so effective, [creating] a rather substantial new
assault on local breeders.
 
pork prices

pork prices

let me repeat and bump the price tables and ask for an update

data are hard to find. Isn't it amazing how people write about prices
without actually listing them ?

waiting for an update here:
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/Quarterlydata/t20070425_402401192.htm


seems that efeedlink hads the data, but somehow secret, requires registration
http://www.efeedlink.com/markets/pork


Code:
prices of live hogs in China (RMB/kg) 
Dec.25,2006  1RMB=$0.129
June 26      1RMB=0.14473CDN
Mar 20       1RMB = 0.14473CDN

            12/25 10/02  08/24  06/26 03/20
-------------------------------------------
Hebei:      9.60  7.50   4.80   6.15  6.30
Henan:      9.80  7.80   4.20   5.75  5.90
Shandong:   9.90  7.30   3.30   6.00  6.35
Hubei:     10.20  8.20   5.80   6.25  6.50
Hunan:     10.30  8.10   6.90   6.45  6.65
Jiangsu:   10.20  8.00   3.80   6.25  6.55
Guangxi:   10.40  8.80   5.80   6.85  7.20
Guangdong: 11.00  9.50          7.55  7.75
Sichuan:    8.90  8.20          5.85  6.10
http://www.ats.agr.gc.ca/can/4028_e.pdf

prices for 500g rib-meat (porc) in Guangzhou(ZJ) in Yuan:

2005:6.40
Jan 2007:11.80
30Mar:10.00
5.Apr:9.60
15.Apr:10.50
May:7.99 (10)
(edit:only the last price was for 500g, others for 1kg)

also from treyfish's, post 79:

May 16, Linyi City (SD) pork prices in yuan/kg
meat prices 17.6
price of pork 15.4
Pig prices: 10.4

May 2006:
meat:11.1
pork:9
pig:6

---------
May 22,2007, pork, China : 15.7
May 15:14.1
May 22,2006 : 7.5


prices for 1kg life pork :
March 2006 : 6.50
June 2006 : 6.30
August 2006 : 5.00
October 2006 : 8.00
December 2006 : 10.00
May 2007 : 16.00

general inflation : 3% per year

> prices for 500g rib-meat (porc) in Guangzhou(ZJ) in Yuan:
> 2005:6.40
> Jan 2007:11.80
> 30Mar:10.00
> 5.Apr:9.60
> 15.Apr:10.50
> May:7.99 (10)

** uhh, it seems the above prices were per kg, while the 7.99 was per 500g ! So multiply the last
one by 2 !

also 16.00 for Shanghai(SH)

The official total number of pigs in China was stable or slightly
increased in 1st quarter of 2007.
What's the estimate for the 2nd quarter ?
 
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Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

yes, I saw that. That's why I posted.

So, what are the prices ?
How do they compare with earlier prices of the same product ?



http://german.china.org.cn/politics/china/txt/2007-07/18/content_8544139.htm

ministry of commerce calculated the wholesale prices from 36 cities
on 11. July as 18.57 Yuan (1.8 Euro) per kg, 30% more than the 14.25 Yuan on 11. May.
Average retail price for pork is above 22 Yuan (2.1 Euro) per kg now.

End of June there were 476 Million pigs , 0.15% less than last year June.

pork-prices shall rise also in 2nd half of 2007, because
consumer sparcity can't be resolved in short period,
said Huang Hai, Assistent of the trade-secretary

(China.org.cn, Xinhua, 18. Juli 2007)
 
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Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

number of pigs in china:

1968:5M
2001:454M
2003:464M
2006:477M (June)
2007:476M (June)

so, that's about 5million fewer pigs in 2007 than expected,
when taking the average growth rate.


http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2006/indexeh.htm

number of lifestock in thousand

year
large animals (year-end)
cattle and buffaloes
horses
donkeys
mules
camels
slaughtered fattened hogs
hogs (year-end)
sheep and goats (year-end)
goats
sheep

Code:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 133606 110318 8715 9444 4780 345 412252 362836 237283 123158 114125
1997 145418 121822 8912 9528 4806 350 464837 400348 255757 134801 120956
1998 148032 124419 8981 9558 4739 335 502151 422563 269035 141683 127352
1999 150248 126983 8914 9348 4673 330 519772 431442 279258 148163 131095
2000 151515 128663 8766 9227 4530 326 526733 446815 290319 157159 133160
2001 149959 128242 8260 8815 4362 279 549367 457430 298264 161292 136972
2002 151893 130848 8088 8499 4194 264 566843 462915 316552 172759 143793
2003 155001 134672 7900 8207 3957 265 592005 466017 340537 183207 157330
2004 157378 137818 7639 7919 3740 262 618007 481891 366391 195509 170882
2005 159475 141575 7400 7772 3604 266 660986 503348 372659 198761 173899
            

+10.3%,+5.5%,+2.1%,+3.6%,+2.4%,+1.2%,+0.7%,+3.4%,+4.5%,-5.2%,-0.2%

26 million fewer hogs in China in 2006 than in 2005 ?




China will see imports rise
China will become a significant net importer of pork over the next 10 years, according to the latest agricultural outlook report present to the US Congress by the multi-university Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (Fapri) in the USA. Fapri is an economic research group with centres at Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia. More information is available at websites (http://www.fapri.iastate.edu) and (http://www.fapri.missouri.edu). Its projections show China’s annual pigmeat imports growing from 36 000 tons in 2006 to 584 000 tons in 2026, while exports stay at around half a million metric tons annually. By 2016 the effect could be a net deficit of 117 000 tons per year. The balance would be affected principally by internal economic growth and the accession of China to membership of the WTO world trade accord, with its reduction of tariffs on imports to the country’s coastal centres of population. The report casts doubt anyway on the international competitiveness of Chinese producers. Although production costs are low for the backyarders, it comments, for commercial-scale units they are about on a level with those of equivalent units in other countries.Future growth in pigmeat production within China could be constrained by limited feed resources, the report continues. A national output of 53 million tons of pork in 2006 is projected to increase by 1.9% per year to almost 63.57 million tons in 2016, but consumption is expected to outstrip this by rising at a rate of 2.1% per year. Some gains will come from improved productivity, however. Fapri analysts project the national on-farm inventory in China rising from 503 million pigs to 548 million over the same 10-year period.Canada in line for a recoveryA strong Canadian dollar in terms of international currency exchange rates has hindered pork exports from Canada in recent times, but the Fapri institute analysis indicates that the decline in national pig inventory seen since 2003 will turn around and become an expansion after 2011. Current decreases in production of about 1.5% will be transformed into a growth rate of 2.9% for the remainder of the decade. This is forecast to be accompanied by a resumption of increases in Canadian pigmeat exports that will file
by 4.8% to make the country a net exporter by some 1.24 million tons annually, compared with under a million tons in 2006. Overall it would mean on-farm pig numbers growing from 14.7 million in 2006 to 16.2 million in 2016 accompanied by a rise from 1.89 million tons/year to 2.23 million tons/year for Canada’s pork output.Switch in


http://209.85.135.104/search?q=cach...llion+pigs"&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=de&ie=UTF-8
 
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Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

THE YEAR OF THE PIG?
Smithfield poised to sell China pork
Smithfield stock has surged in the past weeks as Chinese demand drove up hog prices.
BY CHRIS FLORES
July 23, 2007, 6:54 AM EDT

SMITHFIELD -- It is the Year of the Pig in China, and Smithfield Foods' Maverick Food brand in that country is celebrating by giving away fancy scissors, a chocolate pig or a "Myriad Blessing Gift Box."

Investors over the past weeks have started betting the world's largest pork company might get a blessing of its own from China. The growing country consumes more than half the pork in the world, and is currently facing a severe shortage because of a hog disease. As a result, China wants to bring in large amounts of pork, presenting a major opportunity for hog producers worldwide.

However, those prospects clouded recently when a fight with the United States over food regulations escalated to China temporarily banning meat imports from some major American producers.

But Smithfield was not one of them.

And Smithfield is currently talking to Chinese importers who are trying to obtain supplies for the country during this shortage. Whether this leads to more exports to China -- which has traditionally met its own needs internally -- over the long term is still unknown.

For now at least, the prospect of a major short-term surge in pork exports to China has driven up future hog prices over the past couple of weeks.

Smithfield's stock, in the meantime, hovered at new highs two weeks ago amid the China talk. The company's share price closed at $34.62 on Friday.

Regardless of whether Smithfield wins more business in China, the company benefits when hog prices rise...

All the Smithfield products in China bear the Maverick and Haslett brand names, and are sold to the general public as well as restaurants...

Until now, China has largely produced its own hogs. Less than 5 percent of Smithfield's hog exports went to China last year. The bigger unknown is whether a short-term boost of importing in China will lead to long-term gains for Smithfield, or if China will go back to past patterns once it stops the spread of blue ear disease in its hogs.

"They would like to be self-sustaining," Hostetter said. "As quickly as they can restore the herd, they'd like to do that."

Complete article here:
http://www.dailypress.com/business/...a,0,4510921.story?coll=dp-business-localheads
 
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>China steps up measures to boost pig supply </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=5 cellPadding=0 width="95%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]www.chinanews.cn [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2007-07-24 09:51:34 [/FONT][/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="97%" align=center bgColor=#b6b4b4 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle bgColor=#ffffff><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif](Source: Xinhua) [/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]<TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]<TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]<TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]<TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]<TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, san-serif][/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE height=10 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=14v>[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]July 24 - China's Ministry of Agriculture dispatched another 20 inspection teams to the country's 60 pig production bases on Monday in a bid to curb the spreading of blue-ear disease and ensure the pig supply to stabilize the pork prices.
Pork prices have continued to rise despite the government's efforts to encourage pig breeding with subsidies, after the pork supply was strained by the recent culling of pigs due to the outbreak of the disease.
The wholesale price of pork in China surged 74.6 percent in June compared with the same month last year.
Meanwhile, 39,455 pigs or 27.5 percent of the pigs that contracted blue ear disease in 586 epidemic areas, had died by July 10.
Many farmers have become reluctant to raise pigs for fear they might be struck by the outbreak.
The government had already been directly subsidizing pig breeders and providing insurance for female pigs against illness and natural disasters.
Agriculture Minister Sun Zhengcai said the inspection teams, which now total 30, would identify the actual number of live pigs, especially females, and learn about difficulties in breeding from farmers.
Sun said the information collected by the inspection teams would be used in drafting further supportive policies.
They would explain the government's preferential policies to pig breeders to boost their confidence, he said.
The inspection teams would also focus on the monitoring and the prevention of the blue-ear disease and foot-and-mouth disease, said Sun.
Blue-ear pig disease remains a severe challenge to China's Yangtze River valley despite the fact that the outbreak had been basically brought under control on the whole.
Rising costs for feed and a periodic shortage of pigs due to a fall in pork prices in the first half of 2006 that prompted breeders to slaughter their sows and piglets to avoid further losses have also been blamed for price hikes.
Experts said prices would continue to rise in the second half as the supply shortfall would take a while to ease.
"Normally it takes half a year to complete a breeding cycle and make more pork available in the markets. That's why it's so difficult to turn around supply and demand," said Huang Hai, Assistant Minister of Commerce.
Sun said the production of live pigs was the top priority of the agriculture ministry.
[/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:tiphat: http://www.chinanews.cn//news/2007-07-24/37861.html
 
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