tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nat Commun
. 2025 Mar 5;16(1):2230.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z. Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis
Leonardo Angeli[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Constantino Pereira Caetano[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Nicolas Franco[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Pietro Coletti[SUP] 3 5 [/SUP], Christel Faes[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Geert Molenberghs[SUP] 3 6 [/SUP], Philippe Beutels[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Steven Abrams[SUP] 3 8 [/SUP], Lander Willem[SUP] 7 8 [/SUP], Niel Hens[SUP] 3 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children's contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.
. 2025 Mar 5;16(1):2230.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z. Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis
Leonardo Angeli[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Constantino Pereira Caetano[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Nicolas Franco[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Pietro Coletti[SUP] 3 5 [/SUP], Christel Faes[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Geert Molenberghs[SUP] 3 6 [/SUP], Philippe Beutels[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Steven Abrams[SUP] 3 8 [/SUP], Lander Willem[SUP] 7 8 [/SUP], Niel Hens[SUP] 3 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 40044649
- DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z
Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children's contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.