tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nat Commun
. 2020 Oct 2;11(1):4968.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18786-x.
Early prediction of disease progression in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with chest CT and clinical characteristics
Zhichao Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qizhi Yu[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Shanhu Yao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lei Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenming Zhou[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Xiaowen Mao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jennifer Li[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Junhong Duan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhimin Yan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Min Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hongpei Tan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mengtian Ma[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ting Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Dali Yi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ze Mi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huafei Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi Jiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhenhu He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huiling Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wei Nie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yin Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Muqing Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xuanhui Liu[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Pengfei Rong[SUP] 8 9 [/SUP], Wei Wang[SUP] 10 11 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread to become a worldwide emergency. Early identification of patients at risk of progression may facilitate more individually aligned treatment plans and optimized utilization of medical resource. Here we conducted a multicenter retrospective study involving patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia to investigate the utility of chest computed tomography (CT) and clinical characteristics to risk-stratify the patients. Our results show that CT severity score is associated with inflammatory levels and that older age, higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and CT severity score on admission are independent risk factors for short-term progression. The nomogram based on these risk factors shows good calibration and discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts. These findings have implications for predicting the progression risk of COVID-19 pneumonia patients at the time of admission. CT examination may help risk-stratification and guide the timing of admission.
. 2020 Oct 2;11(1):4968.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18786-x.
Early prediction of disease progression in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with chest CT and clinical characteristics
Zhichao Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qizhi Yu[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Shanhu Yao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lei Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenming Zhou[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Xiaowen Mao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jennifer Li[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Junhong Duan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhimin Yan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Min Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hongpei Tan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mengtian Ma[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ting Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Dali Yi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ze Mi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huafei Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi Jiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhenhu He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huiling Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wei Nie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yin Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Muqing Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xuanhui Liu[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Pengfei Rong[SUP] 8 9 [/SUP], Wei Wang[SUP] 10 11 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33009413
- DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18786-x
Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread to become a worldwide emergency. Early identification of patients at risk of progression may facilitate more individually aligned treatment plans and optimized utilization of medical resource. Here we conducted a multicenter retrospective study involving patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia to investigate the utility of chest computed tomography (CT) and clinical characteristics to risk-stratify the patients. Our results show that CT severity score is associated with inflammatory levels and that older age, higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and CT severity score on admission are independent risk factors for short-term progression. The nomogram based on these risk factors shows good calibration and discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts. These findings have implications for predicting the progression risk of COVID-19 pneumonia patients at the time of admission. CT examination may help risk-stratification and guide the timing of admission.