tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nat Hum Behav
. 2020 Aug 5.
doi: 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9. Online ahead of print.
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Alberto Aleta[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Mart?n-Corral[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Ana Pastore Y Piontti[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Marco Ajelli[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP], Maria Litvinova[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Matteo Chinazzi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Natalie E Dean[SUP] 7 [/SUP], M Elizabeth Halloran[SUP] 8 9 [/SUP], Ira M Longini Jr[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Stefano Merler[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Alex Pentland[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Alessandro Vespignani[SUP] 11 12 [/SUP], Esteban Moro[SUP] 13 14 [/SUP], Yamir Moreno[SUP] 15 16 17 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
. 2020 Aug 5.
doi: 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9. Online ahead of print.
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Alberto Aleta[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Mart?n-Corral[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Ana Pastore Y Piontti[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Marco Ajelli[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP], Maria Litvinova[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Matteo Chinazzi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Natalie E Dean[SUP] 7 [/SUP], M Elizabeth Halloran[SUP] 8 9 [/SUP], Ira M Longini Jr[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Stefano Merler[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Alex Pentland[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Alessandro Vespignani[SUP] 11 12 [/SUP], Esteban Moro[SUP] 13 14 [/SUP], Yamir Moreno[SUP] 15 16 17 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32759985
- DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9
Abstract
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.