tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Netw Model Anal Health Inform Bioinform
. 2022;11(1):5.
doi: 10.1007/s13721-021-00350-2. Epub 2021 Dec 10.
Mathematical modeling of the outbreak of COVID-19
Arvind Kumar Sinha[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nishant Namdev[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Pradeep Shende[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is a pandemic condition and poses a massive menace to health. The governments of different countries and their various prohibitory steps to restrict the virus's expanse have changed individuals' communication processes. Due to physical and financial factors, the population's density is more likely to interact and spread the virus. We establish a mathematical model to present the spread of the COVID-19 in India and worldwide. By the simulation process, we find the infected cases, infected fatality rate, and recovery rate of the COVID-19. We validate the model by the rough set method. In the method, we obtain the accuracy for the infected case is 90.19%, an infection-fatality of COVID-19 is 94%, and the recovery is 85.57%, approximately the same as the actual situation reported WHO. This paper uses the generalized simulation process to predict the outbreak of COVID-19 for different continents. It gives the way of future trends of the COVID-19 outbreak till December 2021 and casts enlightenment about learning the drifts of the outbreak worldwide.
Keywords: Covid-19; Epidemiology; Government actions; Pandemic; Public reactions; Rough set.
. 2022;11(1):5.
doi: 10.1007/s13721-021-00350-2. Epub 2021 Dec 10.
Mathematical modeling of the outbreak of COVID-19
Arvind Kumar Sinha[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nishant Namdev[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Pradeep Shende[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34909367
- PMCID: PMC8661390
- DOI: 10.1007/s13721-021-00350-2
Abstract
The novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is a pandemic condition and poses a massive menace to health. The governments of different countries and their various prohibitory steps to restrict the virus's expanse have changed individuals' communication processes. Due to physical and financial factors, the population's density is more likely to interact and spread the virus. We establish a mathematical model to present the spread of the COVID-19 in India and worldwide. By the simulation process, we find the infected cases, infected fatality rate, and recovery rate of the COVID-19. We validate the model by the rough set method. In the method, we obtain the accuracy for the infected case is 90.19%, an infection-fatality of COVID-19 is 94%, and the recovery is 85.57%, approximately the same as the actual situation reported WHO. This paper uses the generalized simulation process to predict the outbreak of COVID-19 for different continents. It gives the way of future trends of the COVID-19 outbreak till December 2021 and casts enlightenment about learning the drifts of the outbreak worldwide.
Keywords: Covid-19; Epidemiology; Government actions; Pandemic; Public reactions; Rough set.