tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nonlinear Dyn
. 2022 Jan 11;1-14.
doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-07121-8. Online ahead of print.
Analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions impacts on COVID-19 pandemic in Iran
Sara Saadatmand[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Khodakaram Salimifard[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Reza Mohammadi[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic shows to have a huge impact on people's health and countries' infrastructures around the globe. Iran was one of the first countries that experienced the vast prevalence of the coronavirus outbreak. The Iranian authorities applied various non-pharmaceutical interventions to eradicate the epidemic in different periods. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing the current Coronavirus pandemic and to predict the next wave of infection in Iran. To achieve the research objective, the number of cases and deaths before and after the interventions was studied and the effective reproduction number of the infection was analyzed under various scenarios. The SEIR generic model was applied to capture the dynamic of the pandemic in Iran. To capture the effects of different interventions, the corresponding reproduction number was considered. Depending on how people are responsive to interventions, the effectiveness of each intervention has been investigated. Results show that the maximum number of the total of infected individuals will occur around the end of May and the start of June 2021. It is concluded that the outbreak could be smoothed if full lockdown and strict quarantine continue. The proposed modeling could be used as an assessment tool to evaluate the effects of different interventions in new outbreaks.
Keywords: COVID-19; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Nonlinear dynamics; Pandemic modeling; SEIR model.
. 2022 Jan 11;1-14.
doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-07121-8. Online ahead of print.
Analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions impacts on COVID-19 pandemic in Iran
Sara Saadatmand[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Khodakaram Salimifard[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Reza Mohammadi[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35035089
- PMCID: PMC8747878
- DOI: 10.1007/s11071-021-07121-8
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic shows to have a huge impact on people's health and countries' infrastructures around the globe. Iran was one of the first countries that experienced the vast prevalence of the coronavirus outbreak. The Iranian authorities applied various non-pharmaceutical interventions to eradicate the epidemic in different periods. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing the current Coronavirus pandemic and to predict the next wave of infection in Iran. To achieve the research objective, the number of cases and deaths before and after the interventions was studied and the effective reproduction number of the infection was analyzed under various scenarios. The SEIR generic model was applied to capture the dynamic of the pandemic in Iran. To capture the effects of different interventions, the corresponding reproduction number was considered. Depending on how people are responsive to interventions, the effectiveness of each intervention has been investigated. Results show that the maximum number of the total of infected individuals will occur around the end of May and the start of June 2021. It is concluded that the outbreak could be smoothed if full lockdown and strict quarantine continue. The proposed modeling could be used as an assessment tool to evaluate the effects of different interventions in new outbreaks.
Keywords: COVID-19; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Nonlinear dynamics; Pandemic modeling; SEIR model.