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PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

AlaskaDenise

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
Tonight's NOW presentation was fascinating. Especially the work of Dr. Nathan Wolfe, who literally hunts down new zoonotic diseases. The main speaker (Dr. Larry Brillant) worked to eradicate smallpox.

Some interesting stats - 65% of infectious diseases begin with animals, aids was 1st in humans in 1929, Africans last year consumed 700 million wild animals in a desparate need for protein.

The video is about 26 minutes long, and well worth the time
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How do we fight both the swine flu pandemic and our fear of it?

This week, NOW's David Brancaccio sits down with one of the most prominent figures in world health to discuss the future of the swine flu pandemic. Dr. Larry Brilliant is an epidemiologist, former chief philanthropist at Google.org, and was a central figure in the World Health Organization's successful smallpox eradication program.

Brilliant sheds light on high-tech tools that are making it easier for scientists to detect global outbreaks, the critical importance of early detection and early response, and how the current pandemic has yet to show its real hand.

"Anyone who tells you that they know that this is a mild pandemic, and the WHO has overreacted, they don't know. Anyone who tells you that the WHO and CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] have underestimated it, they don't know," Brilliant tells NOW. "We're all going to find out at the same time...we're all in it together."

The show also features vital insight from Dr. Nathan Wolfe, a Stanford University epidemiologist who specializes in hunting viruses to their source.

http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/519/index.html
 
Re: Dr. Larry Brilliant on H1N1

Re: Dr. Larry Brilliant on H1N1

Evidently Veratect has claimed to be the first source of information about the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Mexico in early April. According to the PBS audio Veratect has issued 19,000 disease alerts in 3 years. That would be every single outbreak in the world of any type for 3 years. lol

We made out first post about the situation on April 17th here:


http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=99635


We were the first entity, publicly, to connect the "swine flu" in Southern California with the Mexico pneumonia situation here on April 22:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=220293&postcount=44


Thanks to everyone.

Done with all volunteers.

Of all races and cultures.

Of the heart and spirit.

For Free to the World.


"In the long run, we shape our lives, and we shape ourselves. The process never ends until we die. And the choices we make are ultimately our own responsibility."

Eleanor Roosevelt


We will never charge for the information we provide.

The question is: When will the for-profit companies that mine FT for information to sell to paying customers give us credit? I know who you are from our site meter. And none of you has ever donated a dime to maintain our server. Shame. The ultimate shame on you. :(

Taking from the poor to give to the rich.

We will continue to serve the world's citizens who can not afford to buy disease information. 6.7 billion strong.

Thank you to everyone who participates here.

The common man helping his fellow man. Hand to hand.
 
Re: Dr. Larry Brilliant on H1N1

Re: Dr. Larry Brilliant on H1N1

It was ever thus. They depend on public funding so feel no pangs of guilt for pillaging our site for data. Just as no one ever cited Ft or me, for the research I did-despite the fact we have seen them quote me word for word. The good news is enough people are now visiting our site that sooner or later the thieves are going to be caught. Veratect, you have been caught with your hand in the cookie jar.......next time own up or we will share your perfidy with CNN and other news agency's who also have found and mine FT.
 
Re: Dr. Larry Brilliant on H1N1

Re: Dr. Larry Brilliant on H1N1

Many of the entities that mine FT give us credit. This is fine. Especially we are pleased about the various universities, non-profits, and most importantly - individuals.

I have a problem when a group pretends that all of the information they have obtained is from their own effort when we know from our site meter how much time they have spent on FT.

What we are asking for is attribution.

Plain and simple.
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

Thanks Pablomorgan! I will check into Paypal again. Last time I looked they had some really bizarre terms, like delays on depositing the money they have collected on your behalf. I will investigate again this next week.
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

pablomorgan,
I made my last donation using the PayPal plugin.
You can download it from the paypal site and use it to generate a one time use credit card which will be funded by your usual paypal source.

Very cool tool that allows me to shop online without using any of my real credit cards.
My usual source of funding for paypal transactions is my checking account so it's like writing a check but with the instant approval of a credit card transaction.
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

The only problem I have encountered using the paypal plugin to generate a secure card transaction is for sites that don't charge the card right away.
I ran into that purchasing nursery stock. They don't charge the card until they are ready to ship and of course the secure card info was no longer any good.
Works like a charm for most online transactions though.
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

Thanks everyone. We are supported by "regular" people. We applied for a grant from the Gates Foundation 2 years ago and were turned down. Our costs are actually minimal. It is about 400$ USD a month to run the server and associated finance charges. If everyone who logged on today donated 20$ USD we would be set for the rest of the year.

We are committed to remain free to the world.

Who else is going to tell everyone like we have that the 2009 H1N1 virus is spreading around the world? Denials by the WHO notwithstanding. We said this since the beginning of this sad saga. If this disease can spread undetected with ease in North America, then it will spread throughout the world.

We have also repeatedly said that despite the rhetoric from our various governments, there will be no vaccine for a pandemic for most people on this earth.

Do not depend on this. Prepare your near ones. Some helpful tips are on our left side bar.

We also have met the challenge of the pharmaceutical companies and we have an extensive traditional treatments forum here. Because you deserve to know. That maybe your near ones will get sick, but with available traditional treatments, they have a chance.

We have also promoted Dr. David Fedson's idea of using inexpensive generic drugs in the treatment of pandemic influenza here and here. He can not get funding for his idea either.

We have given safe harbor to Henry Niman, PhD, to explore his new genetic idea - recombinomics. Until he joined FT he was harassed continuously on the internet.

We have embraced all of the various bloggers, sites, and participants who are interested in disseminating the message of preparedness.

And mostly, we have been interested in promoting the idea that many committed humanitarians can speak with one voice for the betterment of man.
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

is this being considered "competition" between the news sources ?
who gets credit for being the first ?

google gives FT good ranking in searches
I noticed Brilliant has included the FT-logo in his presentations

Brilliant was wrong in that WHO,CDC did indeed overestimate the 2009 pandemic
in the first months

and google flu trend had to "adapt" their system to the 2009 data

Brilliant claims to be an epidemiologist and he has that extraordinary claim
that pandemics will be eradicated in our lifetimes by better surveillance
and earlier reaction alone.
But he has no paper, no webpage where he elaborates the details
and arguments and I haven't heard it from other epidemiologists.
I saw no discussion, where he discusses that claim with critics.

2013 - thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=208559
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

Wolfe:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Wolfe

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1102/opinions-nathan-wolfe-epidemic-ideas-opinions.html

so, this is not so much about influenza. You would probably not "hunt" for new dangerous influenza
viruses in Cameroon. But rather in India,China or H5N1 in Indonesia,Egypt,Vietnam,Cambodia.

... Or in the lab ... combine existing variants to form and detect possible new
pandemic candidates. But, what to do if we find one candidate ?
If the hunting succeeds, either in the lab or in nature.

Publish it, so other evil virologists can create a pandemic or threaten with it ?
Or "good" virologists can grow and study that virus in more and more
(low-biosafety) labs ?

----------
when Wolfe,Brilliant speak of "pandemics", they don't just mean influenza pandemics
but include other diseases that spread worldwide, although much slower and may
infect fewer people than a typical influenza pandemic which indects ~10%-20%
of the world population in just one year
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

> We applied for a grant from the Gates foundation 2 years ago
> and were turned down

you might want to ask the Skoll foundation.
One of their 5 goals is to stop pandemics by surveillance.

afaict they have no discussion board

their "forum" http://skollworldforum.org is different
from the internet discussion forums like FT (vbulletin,phpbb,...)

http://skollworldforum.org/debate-post/the-fight-to-end-pandemics/

he is "biased" by his experience. He is no scientist, didn't read the actual
flu-reassortment papers, doesn't analyse sequences.
I don't think that he is qualified to judge on the chance to stop pandemics.

Flu is different from polio,smallpox. It spreads so quickly, it surrounds the globe each year.
Once we detect a new outbreak, it's already too late to stop it.
We can only mitigate.
Eradication may only work for a few outbreaks with small R_0, not the
typical pandemics. It might be possible - but I don't yet see the approach how to stop
new emerging pandemic influenza viruses.
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

Apparently the Skoll Foundation is funding HealthMap.

"Brought to you by HealthMap at Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School and Skoll Global Threats Fund."


http://www.healthmap.org/ddd/


I would be surprised if Larry Brilliant or anyone at Skoll has ever read FluTrackers. We do no marketing. We do not promote ourselves. Many of our PhD and MD post here anonymously so we have never prepared a glossy brochure online of our "talent".

And most importantly - we are grassroots. We do not think a lengthy academic resume is required to be an expert digital epidemiologist. We are proof that hard work and commitment are the only requirements.

Our work product is our resume.
 
Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

he shows the flutrackers logo in his presentations
 

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Re: PBS- Dr. Larry Brilliant - Predicting Pandemics

That page looks very similar to the page of logos that John Brownstein of HealthMap has shown in a presentation.
 
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