Giuseppe
Emeritus
[Source: PLoS ONE, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
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Comparison: Flu Prescription Sales Data from a Retail Pharmacy in the US with Google Flu Trends and US ILINet (CDC) Data as Flu Activity Indicator
Avinash Patwardhan<SUP>*</SUP>, Robert Bilkovski
Walgreen Co., Deerfield, Illinois, United States of America
Abstract
The potential threat of bioterrorism along with the emergence of new or existing drug resistant strains of influenza virus, added to expanded global travel, have increased vulnerability to epidemics or pandemics and their aftermath. The same factors have also precipitated urgency for having better, faster, sensitive, and reliable syndromic surveillance systems. Prescription sales data can provide surrogate information about the development of infectious diseases and therefore serve as a useful tool in syndromic surveillance. This study compared prescription sales data from a large drug retailing pharmacy chain in the United States with Google Flu trends surveillance system data as a flu activity indicator. It was found that the two were highly correlated. The correlation coefficient (Pearson ?r?) for five years' aggregate data (2007?2011) was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90?0.94). The correlation coefficients for each of the five years between 2007 and 2011 were 0.85, 0.92, 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 respectively. Additionally, prescription sales data from the same large drug retailing pharmacy chain in the United States were also compared with US Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet) data for 2007 by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The correlation coefficient (Pearson ?r?) was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95?0.98).
Citation: Patwardhan A, Bilkovski R (2012) Comparison: Flu Prescription Sales Data from a Retail Pharmacy in the US with Google Flu Trends and US ILINet (CDC) Data as Flu Activity Indicator. PLoS ONE 7(8): e43611. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043611
Editor: Edward Goldstein, Harvard School of Public Health, United States of America
Received: June 14, 2012; Accepted: July 26, 2012; Published: August 30, 2012
Copyright: ? 2012 Patwardhan, Bilkovski. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Funding: This research was funded by Walgreen Co. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: Both the authors are full time employees of Walgreen Co. This does not alter the authors' adherence to all the PLoS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.
* E-mail: Avinash.Patwardhan@Walgreens.com
-Avinash Patwardhan<SUP>*</SUP>, Robert Bilkovski
Walgreen Co., Deerfield, Illinois, United States of America
Abstract
The potential threat of bioterrorism along with the emergence of new or existing drug resistant strains of influenza virus, added to expanded global travel, have increased vulnerability to epidemics or pandemics and their aftermath. The same factors have also precipitated urgency for having better, faster, sensitive, and reliable syndromic surveillance systems. Prescription sales data can provide surrogate information about the development of infectious diseases and therefore serve as a useful tool in syndromic surveillance. This study compared prescription sales data from a large drug retailing pharmacy chain in the United States with Google Flu trends surveillance system data as a flu activity indicator. It was found that the two were highly correlated. The correlation coefficient (Pearson ?r?) for five years' aggregate data (2007?2011) was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90?0.94). The correlation coefficients for each of the five years between 2007 and 2011 were 0.85, 0.92, 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 respectively. Additionally, prescription sales data from the same large drug retailing pharmacy chain in the United States were also compared with US Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet) data for 2007 by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The correlation coefficient (Pearson ?r?) was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95?0.98).
Citation: Patwardhan A, Bilkovski R (2012) Comparison: Flu Prescription Sales Data from a Retail Pharmacy in the US with Google Flu Trends and US ILINet (CDC) Data as Flu Activity Indicator. PLoS ONE 7(8): e43611. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043611
Editor: Edward Goldstein, Harvard School of Public Health, United States of America
Received: June 14, 2012; Accepted: July 26, 2012; Published: August 30, 2012
Copyright: ? 2012 Patwardhan, Bilkovski. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Funding: This research was funded by Walgreen Co. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: Both the authors are full time employees of Walgreen Co. This does not alter the authors' adherence to all the PLoS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.
* E-mail: Avinash.Patwardhan@Walgreens.com
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