tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2024 Feb 13;19(2):e0298218.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298218. eCollection 2024. Estimating infection prevalence using the positive predictive value of self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests: An exploration of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data in the Netherlands from May 2021 to April 2022
Koen M F Gorgels[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Senna C J L van Iersel[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sylvia F A Keijser[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Christian J P A Hoebe[SUP] 2 3 4 [/SUP], Jacco Wallinga[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Albert J van Hoek[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Measuring the severity of the disease of SARS-CoV-2 is complicated by the lack of valid estimations for the prevalence of infection. Self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) were available in the Netherlands since March 2021, requiring confirmation by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for positive results. We explored the possibility of utilizing the positive predictive value (PPV) of Ag-RDTs to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. We used data from all Public Health service testing facilities between 3 May 2021 and 10 April 2022. The PPV was calculated by dividing the number of positive RT-PCR results by the total number of confirmation tests performed, and used to estimate the prevalence and compared with the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions. In total 3,599,894 cases were included. The overall PPV was 91.8% and 88.8% were symptomatic. During our study period, the estimated prevalence ranged between 2-22% in symptomatic individuals and 2-14% in asymptomatic individuals, with a correlation between the estimated prevalence and hospital admissions two weeks later (r = 0.68 (p<0.01) and r = 0.60 (p<0.01) for symptomatic/asymptomatic individuals). The PPV of Ag-RDTs can help estimate changes in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, especially when used in conjunction with other surveillance systems. However, the used method probably overestimated the true prevalence because of unmonitored differences in test propensity between individuals.
. 2024 Feb 13;19(2):e0298218.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298218. eCollection 2024. Estimating infection prevalence using the positive predictive value of self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests: An exploration of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data in the Netherlands from May 2021 to April 2022
Koen M F Gorgels[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Senna C J L van Iersel[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sylvia F A Keijser[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Christian J P A Hoebe[SUP] 2 3 4 [/SUP], Jacco Wallinga[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Albert J van Hoek[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 38349925
- PMCID: PMC10863887
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298218
Measuring the severity of the disease of SARS-CoV-2 is complicated by the lack of valid estimations for the prevalence of infection. Self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) were available in the Netherlands since March 2021, requiring confirmation by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for positive results. We explored the possibility of utilizing the positive predictive value (PPV) of Ag-RDTs to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. We used data from all Public Health service testing facilities between 3 May 2021 and 10 April 2022. The PPV was calculated by dividing the number of positive RT-PCR results by the total number of confirmation tests performed, and used to estimate the prevalence and compared with the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions. In total 3,599,894 cases were included. The overall PPV was 91.8% and 88.8% were symptomatic. During our study period, the estimated prevalence ranged between 2-22% in symptomatic individuals and 2-14% in asymptomatic individuals, with a correlation between the estimated prevalence and hospital admissions two weeks later (r = 0.68 (p<0.01) and r = 0.60 (p<0.01) for symptomatic/asymptomatic individuals). The PPV of Ag-RDTs can help estimate changes in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, especially when used in conjunction with other surveillance systems. However, the used method probably overestimated the true prevalence because of unmonitored differences in test propensity between individuals.