tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2021 Feb 17;16(2):e0246520.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246520. eCollection 2021.
Insufficient social distancing may contribute to COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Iju? city in Brazil
Thiago Gomes Heck[SUP] 1 2 3 4 [/SUP], Rafael Z Frantz[SUP] 4 5 [/SUP], Matias Nunes Frizzo[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Carlos Henrique Ramires Fran?ois[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Mirna Stela Ludwig[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Marilia Arndt Mesenburg[SUP] 6 7 [/SUP], Giovano Pereira Buratti[SUP] 2 [/SUP], L?gia Beatriz Bento Franz[SUP] 2 8 [/SUP], Evelise Moraes Berlezi[SUP] 2 3 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The coronavirus disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19) is highly contagious and has given way to a global pandemic. A present COVID-19 has high transmission rates worldwide, including in small Brazilian cities such as Iju?. Located in the northwest part of the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and with a population of 83,475, Iju? was selected as the site of a population-based survey involving 2,222 subjects, from April to June 2020. Subjects were tested for the presence of antibodies against coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and answered questions regarding social distance adherence (SDA), daily preventive routines (DPR), comorbidities, and sociodemographic characteristics. In parallel, the local government registered the official COVID-19 cases in Iju?, as well as the mobile social distancing index (MSDI). In this study, we demonstrate that there was a decrease in the levels of SDA, DPR and MSDI before the beginning of COVID-19 community transmission in Iju?. Furthermore, we provide predictions for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the city. We conclude that insufficient social distancing, as evidenced by different methods, may be related to the rapid increase of COVID-19 cases in Iju?. Our study predicts an approaching outbreak of COVID-19 in Iju? through community spread, which could be avoided or attenuated with increased levels of social distancing among the population.
. 2021 Feb 17;16(2):e0246520.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246520. eCollection 2021.
Insufficient social distancing may contribute to COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Iju? city in Brazil
Thiago Gomes Heck[SUP] 1 2 3 4 [/SUP], Rafael Z Frantz[SUP] 4 5 [/SUP], Matias Nunes Frizzo[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Carlos Henrique Ramires Fran?ois[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Mirna Stela Ludwig[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Marilia Arndt Mesenburg[SUP] 6 7 [/SUP], Giovano Pereira Buratti[SUP] 2 [/SUP], L?gia Beatriz Bento Franz[SUP] 2 8 [/SUP], Evelise Moraes Berlezi[SUP] 2 3 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33596229
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246520
Abstract
The coronavirus disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19) is highly contagious and has given way to a global pandemic. A present COVID-19 has high transmission rates worldwide, including in small Brazilian cities such as Iju?. Located in the northwest part of the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and with a population of 83,475, Iju? was selected as the site of a population-based survey involving 2,222 subjects, from April to June 2020. Subjects were tested for the presence of antibodies against coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and answered questions regarding social distance adherence (SDA), daily preventive routines (DPR), comorbidities, and sociodemographic characteristics. In parallel, the local government registered the official COVID-19 cases in Iju?, as well as the mobile social distancing index (MSDI). In this study, we demonstrate that there was a decrease in the levels of SDA, DPR and MSDI before the beginning of COVID-19 community transmission in Iju?. Furthermore, we provide predictions for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the city. We conclude that insufficient social distancing, as evidenced by different methods, may be related to the rapid increase of COVID-19 cases in Iju?. Our study predicts an approaching outbreak of COVID-19 in Iju? through community spread, which could be avoided or attenuated with increased levels of social distancing among the population.