tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2024 May 29;19(5):e0303529.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303529. eCollection 2024. Population infection estimation from wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Nagpur, India during the second pandemic wave
Edward Acheampong[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Aliabbas A Husain[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hemanshi Dudani[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Amit R Nayak[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Aditi Nag[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Ekta Meena[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Sandeep K Shrivastava[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Patrick McClure[SUP] 6 7 8 [/SUP], Alexander W Tarr[SUP] 6 7 8 [/SUP], Colin Crooks[SUP] 6 9 [/SUP], Ranjana Lade[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Rachel L Gomes[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Andrew Singer[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Saravana Kumar[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Tarun Bhatnagar[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Sudipti Arora[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Rajpal Singh Kashyap[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Tanya M Monaghan[SUP] 6 9 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as an effective environmental surveillance tool for predicting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease outbreaks in high-income countries (HICs) with centralized sewage infrastructure. However, few studies have applied WBE alongside epidemic disease modelling to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in low-resource settings. This study aimed to explore the feasibility of collecting untreated wastewater samples from rural and urban catchment areas of Nagpur district, to detect and quantify SARS-CoV-2 using real-time qPCR, to compare geographic differences in viral loads, and to integrate the wastewater data into a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Confirmed Positives-Recovered (SEIPR) model. Of the 983 wastewater samples analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, we detected significantly higher sample positivity rates, 43.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 40.1, 47.4) and 30.4% (95% CI 24.66, 36.66), and higher viral loads for the urban compared with rural samples, respectively. The Basic reproductive number, R0, positively correlated with population density and negatively correlated with humidity, a proxy for rainfall and dilution of waste in the sewers. The SEIPR model estimated the rate of unreported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the start of the wave as 13.97 [95% CI (10.17, 17.0)] times that of confirmed cases, representing a material difference in cases and healthcare resource burden. Wastewater surveillance might prove to be a more reliable way to prepare for surges in COVID-19 cases during future waves for authorities.
. 2024 May 29;19(5):e0303529.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303529. eCollection 2024. Population infection estimation from wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Nagpur, India during the second pandemic wave
Edward Acheampong[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Aliabbas A Husain[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hemanshi Dudani[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Amit R Nayak[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Aditi Nag[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Ekta Meena[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Sandeep K Shrivastava[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Patrick McClure[SUP] 6 7 8 [/SUP], Alexander W Tarr[SUP] 6 7 8 [/SUP], Colin Crooks[SUP] 6 9 [/SUP], Ranjana Lade[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Rachel L Gomes[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Andrew Singer[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Saravana Kumar[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Tarun Bhatnagar[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Sudipti Arora[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Rajpal Singh Kashyap[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Tanya M Monaghan[SUP] 6 9 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 38809825
- PMCID: PMC11135679
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303529
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as an effective environmental surveillance tool for predicting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease outbreaks in high-income countries (HICs) with centralized sewage infrastructure. However, few studies have applied WBE alongside epidemic disease modelling to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in low-resource settings. This study aimed to explore the feasibility of collecting untreated wastewater samples from rural and urban catchment areas of Nagpur district, to detect and quantify SARS-CoV-2 using real-time qPCR, to compare geographic differences in viral loads, and to integrate the wastewater data into a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Confirmed Positives-Recovered (SEIPR) model. Of the 983 wastewater samples analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, we detected significantly higher sample positivity rates, 43.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 40.1, 47.4) and 30.4% (95% CI 24.66, 36.66), and higher viral loads for the urban compared with rural samples, respectively. The Basic reproductive number, R0, positively correlated with population density and negatively correlated with humidity, a proxy for rainfall and dilution of waste in the sewers. The SEIPR model estimated the rate of unreported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the start of the wave as 13.97 [95% CI (10.17, 17.0)] times that of confirmed cases, representing a material difference in cases and healthcare resource burden. Wastewater surveillance might prove to be a more reliable way to prepare for surges in COVID-19 cases during future waves for authorities.