Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

[Mingus]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

prefer engaged discussion over "dignity"

gs,

engaged is not the opposite of dignity;
obstinated is not a synonym of engaged;
There is plenty of others way to understand life and universe than strait numbers and sometimes they are irrelevant;

Whatever experts they could be, there is just no scientific data quantifying the number of "unefficient" single or clustered vertical transmission there haved been in 1918, 1957 & 1968 before the pandemic explose in efficient h2h just because they where not cause by a highly pathogenic influenza virus and theses infection just get unnoticed.

This time it's very different, H5N1 is the less subtle virus we could imagine.

So how many b2h before it explose, we just do not have any relevant statistic data, so every "subjective
probability estimate " is notting but wortless guess.

So every opinion here are feeling and there is just no reason to be obstinated against feeling of others...

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Shannon, I can't translate "primed".
geographical spread has not led to many new cases yet. Hotspot
is still Indonesia. Let's say, it redoubled the problem.
IMO China is still 2 times more a threat than the rest of the world together.
El Nino ? I haven't thought about that yet. I don't know much about El Nino, but
earthquake, tsunami, taifun didn't seem to have increased the H5N1 problem
so far.
Lack of supervision , yes, but many argue that supervision can only delay the pandemic.
When the clusters grow and reoccur then at some point we can't stop them all.
Of course, when we can delay it we might win time for preparing
and vaccine. But once you acknowledge that vaccine could be a factor
then you can hardly vote for 100%...

Re: Geography
Geography increases the number of cases simply because of the increase in the number of possible infections. Instead of one country with a population of say 10 million, we now have the potential to infect 2 billion. Each and every time the virus replicates it may alter its coat. At some point as already illustrated by the Garut cluster, it can go from a virus that has a lot of trouble passing from human to human, to one that finds it significantly easier to do so.

Re: vax
Well, I have no hopes of a sudden miraculous vaccine arriving on the scene. It takes time to develop, make, and distribute a vaccine that has been decidedly difficult to develop thus far. Lots of companies working on one but no concrete one in the works. If the virus were to erupt in pandemic within the next few years there will be no vaccine for the masses until well into the debacle.

Re: El Nino
I am sure you are aware that the virus is seasonal. This has been known for more than a hundred years. It erupts when people move indoors. People move indoors for several reasons depending on where you are in the world. In Northern latitudes we move indoors because of the cold. In other parts of the world they move indoors when the rainy season arrives. El Nino=increased rainfall. I wish I could take credit for this link but I am merely reiterating what others have observed.

Re: China
China is obviously a possible breeding ground for the virus. It does appear they are committed to limiting the spread within its borders. There is evidence they may have already done so using draconian measures. For that reason I have moved them from MY top hot spot to one further down my list. If you believe they are still the most likely place then by all means present your arguments. Given your demands for qualitative and quantitative data I look forward to viewing your arguments.

Re: Absence of world health organizations
Lack of supervision and a resulting lack of timely intervention would be simply putting off the inevitable. But as you have so often put forth, time is what we need to develop any hope of a vaccine. I don't think we have the time, you do.

Summation
My education in geography and disaster management tells me that we are fiddling while Rome burns. There are no ameliorating conditions. I cannot find many, if any, items to add to the other side of the balance scale. Not because I am wedded to disaster but because all of the solutions are still amorphous and the virus is here and now and steadily growing in scope. No vax exists and none are on the immediate horizon. If we could guarantee the virus will not change to one capable of pandemic over the next 5-10 years I too would say we have nothing to worry about. We have more cases this year than we did in all of last year and we are just moving into the very beginning of the flu season. We have no oversight in the current hotspot. We are not going to get any oversight any time soon. Governments continue to dither, or in the case of the CDC actively cut funds that might help alleviate suffering. Supervision has evaporated with no immediate sign of its being replaced any time soon. I can find no silver lining in the fight against bf. Each day brings us closer to disaster, and I see no positive movement either within nature or, any organization to defeat the spread of the virus. A lack of cases in Vietnam does not translate to a worldwide lack of infection elsewhere. We are now moving into flu season worldwide. Choosing to ignore the negatives simply because we don't like the implications is naive. There are many though who need this palliative to sleep well at night. There is nothing wrong with that. There is something wrong however in constantly doubting the evidence without a sound argument and qualitative data to support the allegations of moving away from disaster and towards a solution(s).

 

[johnshull]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

The probability chart would be more interesting if the time period was within 1 year.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Good point John. I will start one of those too, then we can compare.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

mingus wrote:

>engaged is not the opposite of dignity;
>obstinated is not a synonym of engaged;
>There is plenty of others way to understand life and universe
>than strait numbers and sometimes they are irrelevant;
>
>Whatever experts they could be, there is just no scientific
>data quantifying the number of "unefficient" single or clustered
>vertical transmission there haved been in 1918, 1957 & 1968 before
>the pandemic explose in efficient h2h just because they where not
>cause by a highly pathogenic influenza virus and theses infection
>just get unnoticed.
>
>This time it's very different, H5N1 is the less subtle virus we
>could imagine.
>
>So how many b2h before it explose, we just do not have any
>relevant statistic data, so every "subjective
>probability estimate " is notting but wortless guess.

but then any other statement about the danger of an
imminent pandemic, any warnings to prepare must be
worthless guess too. This is just logics.
You cannot claim to know that the danger is big enough
to justify some measures, while simultaneously saying
that a quantification of the magnitude of that danger
is completely "impossible". That's a contradiction.

But these warnings are being issued. Even by the "no one knows"-people.
But if it is worthless guess, then let's do it nevertheless,
let's make a statistics and proof it worthless. (if it is, which I doubt)
That would be useful to know. Yet experts are blocking this research.

>So every opinion here are feeling and there is just no reason
>to be obstinated against feeling of others...

we want to figure out what the best "feeling" is.
We (me at least, but hopefully others too) want to encourage
experts to discuss about their feelings=opinions too.
We want them to use their expertise not only in specific
research about the virus but also in estimating the
threat and communicating it to us, so we can base
our preparations upon it.


Obstination, so it exists here, is not a thing to be avoided
when you want to achieve an important goal. It's not an indication
that someone is wrong either.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Shannon wrote:

>Re: Geography
>Geography increases the number of cases simply because of the
>increase in the number of possible infections. Instead of one
>country with a population of say 10 million, we now have the
>potential to infect 2 billion.

this suggest a 200 fold increase, which is not reflected in
the number of cases. When you just add the inhabitants of the affected
countries then the increase is less than 2 fold compared with
China+Indonesia.

>Each and every time the virus
>replicates it may alter its coat. At some point as already
>illustrated by the Garut cluster, it can go from a virus that
>has a lot of trouble passing from human to human, to one that
>finds it significantly easier to do so.

...due to the circumstances. Not because of mutations.
So this passing-capability is not reproducable,
not genetically fixed.

>Re: vax
>Well, I have no hopes of a sudden miraculous vaccine arriving
>on the scene.

then maybe a slowly developed good researched one.

>It takes time to develop, make, and distribute a vaccine that
>has been decidedly difficult to develop thus far. Lots of companies
>working on one but no concrete one in the works.

Glaxo,Sinovac. The experts (Webster,...) considered it "encouraging"
and "good news".

>If the virus were to erupt in pandemic within the next few years
>there will be no vaccine for the masses until well into the debacle.

the timeline here was 5 years. And it could be sufficient to vaccinate
critical groups to reduce the spread enough.

>Re: El Nino
>I am sure you are aware that the virus is seasonal.
>This has been known for more than a hundred years.

currently it is. But panflus are different.

>It erupts when people move indoors.

I don't think that's the reason. And aren't we planning to move indoors
in a pandemic ? ("SIP")

>People move indoors for several reasons depending on where you are
>in the world.
>In Northern latitudes we move indoors because of the cold.
>In other parts of the world they move indoors when the rainy
>season arrives. El Nino=increased rainfall. I wish I could take
>credit for this link but I am merely reiterating what others
>have observed.

looks farfetched to me at first sight. But we could do a statistics.
For normal flu at least. Maybe someone can do it..

>Re: China
>China is obviously a possible breeding ground for the virus.
>It does appear they are committed to limiting the spread within
>its borders. There is evidence they may have already done so using
>draconian measures. For that reason I have moved them from MY top
>hot spot to one further down my list. If you believe they are still
>the most likely place then by all means present your arguments.

see here:
http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.HowMuchBirdFluInChina
Also, all H5N1 reassortment occurs in Southern China.
Most of the H5N1 originated in Southern China.

>Given your demands for qualitative and quantitative data I look
>forward to viewing your arguments.
>
>Re: Absence of world health organizations
>Lack of supervision and a resulting lack of timely intervention
>would be simply putting off the inevitable. But as you have so
>often put forth, time is what we need to develop any hope of
>a vaccine. I don't think we have the time, you do.

I'm just less certain, that we don't.
It's easy to argue against a 100%-position ;-)

>Summation
>My education in geography and disaster management tells me that
>we are fiddling while Rome burns. There are no ameliorating
>conditions. I cannot find many, if any, items to add to the
>other side of the balance scale. Not because I am wedded to
>disaster but because all of the solutions are still amorphous
>and the virus is here and now and steadily growing in scope.

so are many other viruses, but they never went pandemic.

>No vax exists and none are on the immediate horizon.

they are well within the 5 years time-frame of this poll.
USA has >2 million doses actually.AFAIR.

>If we could guarantee the virus will not change to one capable of
>pandemic over the next 5-10 years I too would say we have
>nothing to worry about.
>We have more cases this year than we did in all of last year
>and we are just moving into the very beginning of the flu season.
>We have no oversight in the current hotspot. We are not going
>to get any oversight any time soon. Governments continue to dither,
>or in the case of the CDC actively cut funds that might help
>alleviate suffering. Supervision has evaporated with no immediate
>sign of its being replaced any time soon.
>I can find no silver lining in the fight against bf.
>Each day brings us closer to disaster, and I see no positive
>movement either within nature or, any organization to defeat
>the spread of the virus.

so should we stop the panflu-activities of WHO,CDC,ECDC,NIH etc.
and save the money ?

>A lack of cases in Vietnam does not
>translate to a worldwide lack of infection elsewhere.

but it's a positive (worldwide or elsewhere ?)

>We are now moving into flu season worldwide. Choosing to ignore the
>negatives simply because we don't like the implications is naive.

agreed.

>There are many though who need this palliative to sleep well
>at night. There is nothing wrong with that. There is something
>wrong however in constantly doubting the evidence without a
>sound argument and qualitative data to support the allegations
>of moving away from disaster and towards a solution(s).

which of your numerous conditions wasn't fulfilled last year,
same time ? Or in 2003 ? What was better ? Why was there
no pandemic yet ?
When we cut the comments about Vientnam and Garut and present
this post to someone later, will he be able to decide which
year you wrote it ?

 

[Mellie]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Shannon, Mingus, Florida1,

Thanks for making point-by-point rebuttals to one person's generalizations that have had no or very little science behind them. These pot-stirring generalized comments are nothing new...

From my perspective as a student of human psychology and behavior and as a scientist, let me point out the following (and I'm sure some of you already know this):

Some people consider their main purpose in life, their main function and reason for existence is to be the "contrarian" and they like to see their name in lights. Playing this role for them is emotionally rewarding. They solicit no real dialog. They make statements on forums like this and probably others, they stir the pot, they throw words out, they're usually fishing simply for the sake of fishing. The process feeds them. For them, hijacking a discussion thread is, no doubt, the most satisfying outcome of their behavior. They love it when one or more people recognize them or at least reply to their words. To them it means they are alive and influencing something. Pavlovian reinforcement. Alternatively, they hate it when they are ignored.

You all need to know that by replying to them you are reinforcing their style, their behavior, their pot-stirring and you're emotionally satisfying their contrarian behaviors.

Now, sometimes in the process of experts rebutting or explaining to the contrarian good points come out for other readers - information others might not have known or understood in a particular context. On this thread, I have enjoyed your informative replies while skipping over the contrarian statements... and you responders are masterful scientists, thinkers, and writers. I don't know your purpose in replying. Sometimes I use a contrarian statement as an invitation to make my points to an audience of lurkers.

That said, I hope you realize that nothing you say here will change the contrarian's mind; or more important to you, my friends, nothing you say here will satisfy you if you hope or expect to illuminate the contrarian's mind or really dialog. Most contrarians are not like you. They're not wanting real dialog, shared understanding or even the agreement to disagree. The contrarian's mind cannot be sufficiently illuminated to anyone's needs except his or her own pot-stirring needs, in my opinion in this case. Simply look back at the collection of posts if you want some data to support my hypothesis.

My, how cynical I am this afternoon, probably because of constraints on my time... If any of you want to PM or email me on this subject, feel free. I won't be replying to this thread although I have enjoyed reading your contributions, Shannon, Mingus and Florida1 and others before the hijack began.

 

[granny]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

RIGHT ON, MELLIE.

 

[Niko]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Mellie, Way to go!
I have known a couple contrarians very well. I generally agree with your analysis of a contrarian?s behavior and motivations. Your diagnosis may be spot on. However, there is another possibility in this case. Fear. Some people know something, in their heart of heart?s, but don?t want to know the truth. They look for any tidbit of information or affirmation that contradicts their core belief - that belief they are unable or unwilling to face. Like someone who is diagnosed with a fatal cancer, who seeks a 2nd, 3rd & 4th opinion ? all the while knowing that the diagnosis is accurate. Unable to face the fear headon. They question the qualifications and expertise of the doctor - maybe to the point of ridiculing at times. Feelings of helplessness and inability to influence the outcome leads them to deny the truth ? all the while trying to convince themselves and others that a cure will be found in time...this can?t possibly happen to me. Bullying has always been an expression of fear and insecurity on the part of the ?bully? in my experience.

On to the probability of a pandemic...
I don't know if there will ever be another pandemic.

• Regardless of where the chance sits, if over 0% then you are conceding the possibility exists.

• If one thinks the probability exists but is so low > preparations on any level are worthless.

• Then, if the whole world fails to prepare AND a virus with the potential to cause a pandemic arrises (H5N1 or other)

• The world is then unprepared on any level, monitoring is non-existent, vax is not found or produced.

The outcome of a pandemic occurring under this scenario would be beyond catastrophic.


Alternately...

You think a pandemic is somewhat likely to happen in the next 5 years.

How does the world prepare ?somewhat??

I think this is the position we are in now:
Some ?experts? and officials think there is a possibility of a pandemic arising from H5N1.
They are sort of monitoring wild birds and testing poultry and vaccinating some poultry.
They are somewhat supportive of vax research.
They are thinking about increasing vax production capability.
They are writing plans and practicing possible actions to mitigate the effects of a pandemic.
Some citizens are being made aware of their need to individually prepare.

What are the effects if a pandemic does start while we are only somewhat prepared? What is the downside of overpreparing? I?m sure there are some, but the benefits are far greater, IMO. Better animal husbandry practices. Better monitoring of zoonotic diseases. Better health care infrastructure. Better supply chains and warehousing of essential goods. Individual, community, and national systems in place to face most natural or unnatural disasters.

BTW, I firmly believe that we will experience a pandemic within the next five years.

 

[Marcie]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Well, Shannon, I guess he told you!

gsgs, just remember, just because you think you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.

Shannon, 100% doesn't make sense. It's in contradiction to most
experts and officials who often say : "no one knows whether
H5N1 will become pandemic" or "no one knows when the
next pandemic will come".
They don't say "no one except Shannon" , which they should when
you really were 100% sure.
OK, the group in the poll was 90%-100% so assume it's 95% or such.
But that's a bet of 1:20 ! You would bet $20 for a possible return
of only $21 when panflu comes, while losing all $20 when not ??
I estimate, that when there were bookmakes to accept bets on the
question of this poll then you would get maybe $100 in return
for your $20 in case panflu hits. This is just because most people
still think it's unlikely.
None of your arguments show that you have some secret information
or expertise in virology that makes you more competent for
an estimate than they are. You can't ignore their opinion.
So, I don't think you report here, what you really think.
Your vote looks connected to your agenda.
Same for the other people who voted 90-100%. We won't
expect that distribution with the peak at 90%-100% and few votes
for 80-90% and 70%-80% in a poll like this.

 

[Marcie]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Shannon, you write beautifully. These types of exchanges with gsgs are very productive, in my opinion, because I think they serve to educate the visitors to this site who might not know much about bird flu yet. They may gain significantly more insight that they will ever get from watching the news or reading the paper. Bravo, all of us.

Re: Geography
Geography increases the number of cases simply because of the increase in the number of possible infections. Instead of one country with a population of say 10 million, we now have the potential to infect 2 billion. Each and every time the virus replicates it may alter its coat. At some point as already illustrated by the Garut cluster, it can go from a virus that has a lot of trouble passing from human to human, to one that finds it significantly easier to do so.

Re: vax
Well, I have no hopes of a sudden miraculous vaccine arriving on the scene. It takes time to develop, make, and distribute a vaccine that has been decidedly difficult to develop thus far. Lots of companies working on one but no concrete one in the works. If the virus were to erupt in pandemic within the next few years there will be no vaccine for the masses until well into the debacle.

Re: El Nino
I am sure you are aware that the virus is seasonal. This has been known for more than a hundred years. It erupts when people move indoors. People move indoors for several reasons depending on where you are in the world. In Northern latitudes we move indoors because of the cold. In other parts of the world they move indoors when the rainy season arrives. El Nino=increased rainfall. I wish I could take credit for this link but I am merely reiterating what others have observed.

Re: China
China is obviously a possible breeding ground for the virus. It does appear they are committed to limiting the spread within its borders. There is evidence they may have already done so using draconian measures. For that reason I have moved them from MY top hot spot to one further down my list. If you believe they are still the most likely place then by all means present your arguments. Given your demands for qualitative and quantitative data I look forward to viewing your arguments.

Re: Absence of world health organizations
Lack of supervision and a resulting lack of timely intervention would be simply putting off the inevitable. But as you have so often put forth, time is what we need to develop any hope of a vaccine. I don't think we have the time, you do.

Summation
My education in geography and disaster management tells me that we are fiddling while Rome burns. There are no ameliorating conditions. I cannot find many, if any, items to add to the other side of the balance scale. Not because I am wedded to disaster but because all of the solutions are still amorphous and the virus is here and now and steadily growing in scope. No vax exists and none are on the immediate horizon. If we could guarantee the virus will not change to one capable of pandemic over the next 5-10 years I too would say we have nothing to worry about. We have more cases this year than we did in all of last year and we are just moving into the very beginning of the flu season. We have no oversight in the current hotspot. We are not going to get any oversight any time soon. Governments continue to dither, or in the case of the CDC actively cut funds that might help alleviate suffering. Supervision has evaporated with no immediate sign of its being replaced any time soon. I can find no silver lining in the fight against bf. Each day brings us closer to disaster, and I see no positive movement either within nature or, any organization to defeat the spread of the virus. A lack of cases in Vietnam does not translate to a worldwide lack of infection elsewhere. We are now moving into flu season worldwide. Choosing to ignore the negatives simply because we don't like the implications is naive. There are many though who need this palliative to sleep well at night. There is nothing wrong with that. There is something wrong however in constantly doubting the evidence without a sound argument and qualitative data to support the allegations of moving away from disaster and towards a solution(s).

 

[Marcie]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Mellie, so well put!

... Sometimes I use a contrarian statement as an invitation to make my points to an audience of lurkers....

Shannon, Mingus, Florida1,

Thanks for making point-by-point rebuttals to one person's generalizations that have had no or very little science behind them. These pot-stirring generalized comments are nothing new...

From my perspective as a student of human psychology and behavior and as a scientist, let me point out the following (and I'm sure some of you already know this):

Some people consider their main purpose in life, their main function and reason for existence is to be the "contrarian" and they like to see their name in lights. Playing this role for them is emotionally rewarding. They solicit no real dialog. They make statements on forums like this and probably others, they stir the pot, they throw words out, they're usually fishing simply for the sake of fishing. The process feeds them. For them, hijacking a discussion thread is, no doubt, the most satisfying outcome of their behavior. They love it when one or more people recognize them or at least reply to their words. To them it means they are alive and influencing something. Pavlovian reinforcement. Alternatively, they hate it when they are ignored.

You all need to know that by replying to them you are reinforcing their style, their behavior, their pot-stirring and you're emotionally satisfying their contrarian behaviors.

Now, sometimes in the process of experts rebutting or explaining to the contrarian good points come out for other readers - information others might not have known or understood in a particular context. On this thread, I have enjoyed your informative replies while skipping over the contrarian statements... and you responders are masterful scientists, thinkers, and writers. I don't know your purpose in replying. Sometimes I use a contrarian statement as an invitation to make my points to an audience of lurkers.
That said, I hope you realize that nothing you say here will change the contrarian's mind; or more important to you, my friends, nothing you say here will satisfy you if you hope or expect to illuminate the contrarian's mind or really dialog. Most contrarians are not like you. They're not wanting real dialog, shared understanding or even the agreement to disagree. The contrarian's mind cannot be sufficiently illuminated to anyone's needs except his or her own pot-stirring needs, in my opinion in this case. Simply look back at the collection of posts if you want some data to support my hypothesis.

My, how cynical I am this afternoon, probably because of constraints on my time... If any of you want to PM or email me on this subject, feel free. I won't be replying to this thread although I have enjoyed reading your contributions, Shannon, Mingus and Florida1 and others before the hijack began.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Mellie,Granny,Niko,Marcie, you think you can decide this by psychology
without addressing the arguments ? That would be useful, but
we are there yet.
Niko, the downside of overpreparing is, that it costs money.
When you say better monitoring,better helth care, better supply chains ,
then yes, of course. But how much better ?
How much should we invest into monitoring,health care,supply chains now ?
Give 3 numbers. And which budgets would you cut to finance it ?
And even more important, how would you convince the politicians about it ?

My suggestion : probability estimates and damage expectation values by
expert-panels. You could hardly argue against that. It's the best what we
can do concerning prediction of the risks and thus evaluating the proper
amount of preparation needed.

As long as people simply refuse to work on quantifying the risk, they
have no legitimation to call for preparation, to issue warnings but also
to dismiss it as hysteria.

The reluctance against risk-quantifying efforts could also be (mis-?)interpreted
as a fear that the own agenda could be proved nonjustified.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

I'm curious, those who think that (at least one) pandemic
is 90%-100% , how many pandemics do you think,
we'll have in the next 5 years ?

Who voted 95% should expect an average (expectation value)
of 3 pandemics in the next 5 years, assuming that one pandemic
doesn't cause immunity against another one.
This seems to be commonly assumed, I often read that
a vaccine can only be produced when we know the strain and
the pandemic had already started.

When you think that each new human case (some hundred so far)
increases the danger of a pandemic strain developing,
then a pandemic should increase the danger of a new,second,
different pandemic strain developing much more.
Billions of opportunities compared with some hundred so far since 1997.
When we look at the diversity of H5N1 and compare it with H3N2,
then there should be ample room for severeal pandemics ...

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

it's not just opportunism. You are invited to review my usenet
and mailing list postings since 1997. (send PM for some links)
I've been working on this pandemic-probability thing since
spring 2004 - long before this board was founded -
with many email-exchanges with experts
and many posts to other boards.

Please address the arguments themselves rather than
the speculated psychology behind them.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

[The probability chart would be more interesting if the time period was within 1 year.]

Good point John. I will start one of those too, then we can compare.

Yes, that's also interesting.
Also Mingus' "Probability of a H5N1 pandemic occuring in the next 6 month ?" , if that's not too many polls. (How many polls are allowed ?)



where is that 1-year poll now ?
I think there was a link here some days ago...
Well, there is a subforum for polls :
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=159

where you can vote without registering. I'd prefer, if we could
copy these polls to there. Is it OK ?

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

it's not just opportunism. You are invited to review my usenet
and mailing list postings since 1997. (send PM for some links)
I've been working on this pandemic-probability thing since
spring 2004 - long before this board was founded -
with many email-exchanges with experts
and many posts to other boards.

Please address the arguments themselves rather than
the speculated psychology behind them.

Guess what gsgs?

I am an expert too.

I am telling you for the final time
that there are too many unknowns
and variables to calculate, with any kind of reliability,
the probability of a pandemic.

Now, if you want a "wild ass guess"
there are plenty of those.
>1% and < 99% is mine.

And even though I am a female,
I understand that until there is
a way to determine the rate of
genetic change that is occuring
in the various influenza strains that are
circulating in the world, including H5N1,
NO ONE, I REPEAT, NO ONE
can calculate the possibility of a pandemic.

What is the probability that your probability calculations
are within any kind of acceptable range for standard deviation?

 

[Goju]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

gsgs - so i have a question for you...

You obviously are extremely knowledgable on this subject.

Have you done anything to help your community survive this potentially devastating event?

 

[tropical]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

With no hard feelings...
maybe a little trying of inserting some logic (math) questions will help:

- at the first looking, the realistic one, Florida1 is generaly right, but;
- if we concentrate mathematicaly on the statement:
"NO ONE, I REPEAT, NO ONE
can calculate the possibility of a pandemic"
it must be corrected on the word "possibility", because:
- by the means of mathematic, it CAN be calculated:
the technical/physical/economical/... sciences are based on a mathematic structure, which can in physical realisation be based on some mathematical suppositions, example: inductions, or statistics.
Can we calculate on which base will fall an piramide, if it have an non-homogenuous interior material?
We can.
The same principles was in the base of some technical decisions (from SpaceShuttle to minor ones).

- by the theory of probability, we CAN calculate the "possibility" of such an event (pandemic), even if it is NOT technical (it's biology), but with biological math variables into

- the problem is how is such an prediction real?
It's reality augment if the quantity of probes augment, minimaly 100.000 or more (1 milion) probes. This means:

if you found (by mathematic) the result - X% - of the probability of such an event like H5N1 (or other strains) pandemic,
and
if than
in real nature happened min. 1 milion changes in a same way you presumed by your imposted variables in the probability equation
than
you have calculated the possibility of such an pandemic, with a resulted X% that it will happen in a time period you imposted in a equation.

On the end of this math remain already an hypothetical result.
________

For a comment from Goju to gsgs:

"Have you done anything to help your community survive this potentially devastating event?"

It's a very good comment, because in our little, the world will be better if all of us try to change something in better in the near proximity.
But, realy, the result (try or not) will be quite the same, or near, because generaly people belive things only when they are already start to happen.
And will be seen what will be the real quality of the pandemic preparation if it starts (like somebody said: it's only words...)

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

tropical,
I assume "possibility"="probability"

I'm experiencing this since years. Even high-rank scientists say:
"no one can estimate the likelyhood of a pandemic in the next 5 years", but then I get
many answers to my polls for exactly that question...

You needn't a million experiences with similar events. It just makes you more confident
in your estimates, you won't change it so quickly when rethinking or new data come in
and others would give similar estimates.
But just that the spread of the opinions and experiences with similar events is smaller
doesn't mean it can't be estimated or estimates are useless.
There are probability distributions with low deviation and there are those with large ones.

As for Goju's question, I don't so much see my main mission in getting some few people
in my direct neighborhood prepared. That would be really minute compared to the
whole of mankind who is threatened by a pandemic.

I want to contribute to provide the masses and politicians with the info to reasonably
estimate the real risk with many expert probability estimates and ongoing dispute
and improvement about this - the best what we can do to estimate the risk.